Bovespa to 204,302.33 by November 4: record-high fade
The Bovespa base case is a fade to the October 7 close of 204,302.33 by the November 4 Copom decision.
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Market calls with a spot, a target and an invalidation level.
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October 2026
LME aluminium retests $3,120 by the 19 October seminar
LME aluminium cash settlement was $3,055.50 a tonne on October 9, 2026, with the three-month at $3,070.
S&P/TSX to 34,938 by December 9: higher bond yields
The S&P/TSX closed at 35,664.62 on October 9. Base case 34,938.01 by December 9 as the 10-year yield rose 48 bp. A daily close above 36,410.62 ends the call.
Nifty 50 to 23,635.1 by December 4: the pause case
Nifty 50 reaches 23,635.1 by December 4, 2026 if the Reserve Bank of India pauses after the October hike. A weekly close under 22,179.9 breaks the call.
ASX 200 to 8,500 by November 3: the cash-rate case
ASX 200 at 8,696.8 faces 8,500 by the November 3 Reserve Bank decision after the cash rate rose to 4.60 per cent. A daily close above 8,808.4 ends the call.
Euro Stoxx 50 to 6,040 by October 28: the live-hike case
The Euro Stoxx 50 falls to 6,040 by the October 28 cash close if the Fed median of 4.1 percent keeps another hike live. A close above 6,311 breaks the call.
Hang Seng to 23,400 by October 28: the hold-not-pivot case
The Hang Seng reaches 23,400 by October 28, 2026 if the Fed holds without a pivot. A daily close above 24,400 breaks the call, and 22,900 is the bear case.
CAC 40 to 7,949 by October 29: the deposit-rate hold
The CAC 40 base case is 7,949 by October 29, 2026, half of a 2.13% week, if the ECB holds the deposit rate at 2.50%. A weekly close below 7,614 ends the call.
PTC to $205 by April 4, 2027: the cash-spread case
PTC closed at $192.26 on October 5, leaving $12.74 to Schneider Electric's $205 cash price. The signed merger agreement's initial end date is April 4, 2027.
NVDA to $248 by November 17: the Q3 guide case
NVDA closed at $238.90 on October 5, 2026. Base case $248 by the November 17, 2026 call, bull $256, bear $230.86. A daily close below $221.56 ends it.
Silver to $57.62 by October 28: the real-yield case
Silver (XAG/USD) reaches $57.62 by October 28, 2026 if the 10-year real yield stays near 2.95% into the FOMC. A weekly close above $62.00 ends the call.
WTI to $86.52 by October 28 as Gulf supply returns
WTI crude at $90.12 is called to $86.52 by October 28, 2026 as a G7 stock release and firmer Gulf exports weigh on price. Weekly close above $99.37 ends it.
FTSE 100 to 10,577 by December 9: the gilt-relief case
The FTSE 100 base case is 10,577 by December 9, 2026, with 10,807 if gilt relief holds and 10,232 if the 2.2% weekly loss repeats. Under 10,117, the call ends.
Live cattle to 223.74 by October 23, 2026: the feedlot case
December 2026 Live cattle is called to 223.74 cents per pound by October 23, 2026.
Soybeans to 1,298.75 cents by October 9, 2026
November soybeans settled at 1,278.25 cents on October 2. The base case is 1,298.75 cents by the October 9, 2026 WASDE. Under 1,273.25 cents, the call breaks.
Dow Jones to 49,918.78 by the October Fed
The Dow Jones base case is 49,918.78 by October 28, 2026, with output stalled and the funds-rate median at 4.1 per cent. Above 51,461.90, the call fails.
Nasdaq 100 to 30,276.81 by October 28: real yields
Nasdaq 100 base case is 30,276.81 by October 28, 2026, with bull case 30,732.40 and bear case 28,937.84, as a higher real yield caps the post-hike rally.
Russell 2000 to 2,822 by October 28 on bank credit
The Russell 2000 base case is 2,822.21 by October 28, 2026, the September 30 high, if small-firm credit holds. A close under 2,792.48 breaks the call.
September 2026
US 10-year yield to 5.00% by October 28 as Fed hikes flatten the curve
The US 10-year Treasury yield, at 5.24%, falls to 5.00% by the October 28 FOMC as a flat 32bp 2s10s curve squeezes out the hiking premium.
AUD/JPY to 112.50 by November 3 as the RBA hikes into a split BOJ
AUD/JPY targets 112.50 by November 3 as the RBA hikes toward 4.60% while two BOJ dissents against any hike slow the yen's tightening path from 1.25% now.
