GBP/AUD to 1.84 by the November RBA decision: the divergence case
GBP/AUD trades at 1.8783 after a 100 basis point swing in the RBA-BoE policy gap. Base case 1.8400 by the November 3 RBA decision; 1.9200 invalidates.
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Market calls with a spot, a target and an invalidation level.
280 stories since 2018 · page 3 of 14
September 2026
USD/BRL to 5.45 by the October 25 runoff: the crowded-carry case
USD/BRL to 5.45 by October 25, 2026: CME speculative long-real positioning sits at the 99th percentile as Copom goes dark for 49 days into the runoff.
Corn to $4.75 by the December 14 expiry: the crowded-long case
Managed money added 191,573 net corn contracts in a fortnight, into the second-largest US crop on record. Why CZ26 targets 475 c/bu by the 14 December expiry.
Silver to $58 by September 30: the spec-length unwind case
Silver at $64.12, 8.7% below the August 28 LBMA fix. CFTC net length rose into the top and Warsh says the Fed has work to do. Base case $58 by September 30.
SOFR–IORB capped at 10bp into year-end: the fading-turn case
SOFR–IORB sits at 0bp against +22bp at the last year-end. The call: at or below +10bp on December 31, 2026, with the Standing Repo Facility as the ceiling.
August 2026
USD/TRY path to 50 runs through the CBRT’s restarted repo auction
USD/TRY at 48.245 after the CBRT restarted one-week repo auctions on August 23, cutting effective funding 300bp. Base case 50.00 by October 31, 2026.
EU carbon to €90 by year-end 2026: the surplus-floor case
EU carbon allowances closed at €82.87/t. The Market Stability Reserve intake from September 1 draws the ETS surplus to exactly 833 million — and to €90/t.
ULSD to $4.40 by year-end 2026: the EIA forecast-gap case
US distillate stocks sit 9.5% below last year and exports run 28.5% higher, yet the EIA forecasts a Q4 build. The case for ULSD at $4.40 by year-end 2026.
USD/ZAR to 15.50 by year-end 2026: the 3% target case
USD/ZAR to 15.50 by year-end 2026: SARB 3% target keeps the repo at 7% as CPI falls to 4.3%, widening the real rate while gold tops $4,500 and DXY sits below 100.
OAT–Bund to 105bp by end-Q1 2027: the rating-crossover case
France's 10-year OAT yields more than Italy's BTP despite a far stronger rating. The OAT–Bund spread widens from 85.7bp to 105bp by end-Q1 2027.
EUR/JPY to 179 by year-end: the vanishing carry case
EUR/JPY is at 185.70 after fully retracing the joint US-Japan yen intervention. The euro-Japan policy spread has been frozen since December 2025.
UK 10-year gilt to 5.35% into the October Budget
The UK 10-year gilt yielded 5.0493% on August 25, 2026. Base case 5.35% by the October 28 Budget as fiscal supply risk and a rising CPI rebuild the premium.
Sugar to 19.50 cents by Q1 2027: the deficit-flip case
ICE No.11 raw sugar settled at 17.52 cents on August 20, 2026. Six houses have flipped the 2026-27 balance into deficit: why the base case is 19.50 cents.
Wheat to $7.60 by year-end 2026: the hard-red-winter case
CBOT wheat at 679 USd/bu. Base case 760 by year-end 2026 as USDA cuts hard red winter output to a 1957/58 low and exporter stocks fall 16.7%.
USD/JPY capped near 160.30 into Jackson Hole: the carry-to-vol case
USD/JPY at 159.19 on August 19, 2026. The US-Japan two-year rate gap narrowed 19bp since August 3, yet the pair rose 1.93%. Base case 160.30 into Jackson Hole.
Tin to $62,000 by year-end 2026: the stock-drawdown case
Tin settled at $56,225/t on August 17, 2026 while LME stocks fell 41% in two months to 5,320 tonnes. Base case $62,000 by year-end 2026, bull $68,000, bear $48,000.
Zinc to $4,100 by Q4 2026: the West-versus-China split
LME zinc hit a four-year high as western warehouse stocks drained 21.2% in 30 days while China's export arbitrage stayed shut. Base case $4,100/t by Q4 2026.
Henry Hub to $2.40 by end-October 2026: the storage-record case
Henry Hub spot is $2.79/MMBtu with Lower 48 storage 198 Bcf above the five-year average. The base case is $2.40 by October 30, 2026 - the storage-record call.
MarketAxess to $167 by the ICE close: the merger-arb case
MKTX trades at $162.57 against ICE's contractual $167.00 cash offer - a 2.72% gross spread pricing a 10.7% deal-break risk. The antitrust case, both ways.
