Aluminium to $3,600 by Q4 2026: the warrant-scarcity case
LME aluminium settled at $3,327.50 on August 10 with exchange stocks at a 1998 low. Why the base case is $3,600 by Q4 2026 - and what breaks it.
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Market calls with a spot, a target and an invalidation level.
257 stories since 2018 · page 3 of 13
August 2026
USD/CNH to 6.65 by year-end: the fixing-gap case
USD/CNH reaches 6.6500 by December 31, 2026 in the base case, 6.5200 in the bull case and 6.9200 in the bear case.
US 2-year yield to 3.75% by year-end: the payrolls case
The US 2-year Treasury yield sits at 4.19%, pricing Fed hikes. July payrolls fell 23,000. Base case: 3.75% by December 31, 2026 as the hike premium unwinds.
Iron ore to $85 by Q4 2026: the Simandou guidance gap
Iron ore is at $94.45 and consensus already says $95 for the year. Simandou is shipping three times faster than Rio Tinto guided. Base case $85 by Q4.
EUR/GBP to 0.8450: the divergence trade that isn’t coming
EUR/GBP sits at 0.8570 with the BoE and ECB tightening into the same energy shock. Base case 0.8450 by year-end, and the September vote splits decide it.
Cocoa to $6,300 by year-end 2026: the shrinking-surplus case
StoneX cut its 2026/27 cocoa surplus forecast 94% to 25,000 tonnes while ICE stocks hit a two-year high. Base case $6,300, bull $7,400, bear $4,860.
AUD/NZD path to 1.16 runs through the RBNZ September hike
AUD/NZD sits on a 185bp RBA-RBNZ policy gap that has already peaked. Base case is 1.16 by December 31, 2026 as the RBNZ hikes toward its 3.00% neutral rate.
Arabica’s path to 250 cents runs through Brazil’s record crop
Arabica trades at 319.50 cents while Rabobank sees a 9.5m-bag surplus. Why Brazil's record crop points to 250 cents by December 2026 - and what breaks it.
Uranium to $100: term prices lead, spot and stocks lag
Uranium's term price hit an 18-year high of $94/lb while spot idles at $86 and miners fall. The convergence case for $100 by mid-2027 — and what would break it.
Palladium at $1,269: a deficit metal priced for surplus
Palladium is down 23% in 2026 while Nornickel projects a 100,000 oz deficit. The case for $1,450 by year-end: supply, substitution and the EU's ICE retreat.
July 2026
Robinhood to $110 by year-end: the event-contract mix shift
Robinhood market call: $110 base by December 31, 2026 as event contracts outearn crypto for the first time — plus the deposit slowdown that could break the thesis at $78.
Nvidia to $224 into the August 26 print: the capex case
Nvidia at $206.75 heads to $224 by September 1 as hyperscaler capex prints meet a hawkish Fed. Base, bull and bear targets with four disconfirmation triggers.
USD/KRW to 1,520 by Q4 2026: the memory terms-of-trade case
The won has strengthened to 1,447.80 while the KOSPI fell 34%. That divergence closes as Chinese DRAM supply erodes Korea's terms of trade. Base case 1,520 by Q4 2026.
EUR/CHF to 0.9450 by Q4 2026: the franc-cap credibility test
EUR/CHF to 0.9450 by December 2026 from 0.9155. The mechanism is the SNB's stated willingness to intervene against franc strength — a soft floor, not a hard cap.
Japan’s 10-year JGB to 3.10% by Q4 2026: the faster-hike case
The 10-year JGB hit 2.77% as swaps price an 80% chance of an October BOJ hike to 1.25%. The path to 3.10% - and the CPI print that breaks it.
GBP/JPY to 205 by Q4 2026: the carry-cushion case
GBP/JPY at 218.15 sits above the entire forecast-house central tendency while the BOJ tightens faster than guided and Tokyo warns of decisive FX action. Base case 205.
USD/NOK to 9.20 by Q4 2026: the Nordic-divergence case
The krone has gained 7.72% on the euro in 2026 while the Swedish krona fell. USD/NOK reaches 9.20 by year-end on a Norges Bank hiking bias the G10 no longer shares.
USD/MXN to 17.90 by Q4 2026: the carry-compression case
USD/MXN to 17.90 by Q4 2026: Banxico is anchored at 6.50% while the Fed is priced to hike, compressing the carry from the US side. Levels and invalidation.
USD/CAD to 1.43 by Q3 2026: the oil-assumption case
USD/CAD to 1.4300 by September 30, 2026. The Bank of Canada's inflation forecast assumes oil falls - and elevated oil is what is holding the loonie up.
Gold to $3,800 by Q4 2026: the real-rate case
Goldman and JPMorgan both cut gold targets on lost Fed easing. If term premium lifts real yields without a hike, $4,050 spot has further to give.
