CHF/NOK to 11.3514 as the policy gap favours the krone
CHF/NOK reaches 11.3514 by December 17, 2026 as the 450 basis-point gap pulls the ECB cross back from 11.5126, with an ECB fixing above 11.6731 as the break.
Abdelaziz Fathi
Senior Reporter, Brokers and Prop Firms
Abdelaziz Fathi covers the intersection of forex/CFD brokerage, regulation, liquidity, fintech, and digital assets. With a B.A. in Finance and hands-on industry exposure, Aziz blends analytical rigor with clear storytelling to make complex market structure understandable for traders, brokers, and fintech professionals.
November 2026
AUD/NZD slips to 1.2331 on a narrower cash-rate gap
AUD/NZD at the 1.2401 Sydney fixing still has a 1.2331 base case if the 210 basis point cash-rate gap narrows, and a Sydney fixing above 1.2529 breaks it.
DayTraders review: payout caps under its 100% split
DayTraders review: a 100 percent simulated split, a $2,000 cap and a $52,600 floor on the 50K Trail, plus a redacted ledger no reader can match to a bank.
EUR/GBP: the Bank Rate premium over the deposit rate
EUR/GBP at 0.8334 has Bank Rate 150 basis points over the ECB deposit rate. The base case is 0.8262 if that premium holds, and a close above 0.8472 breaks it.
Cocoa certified stocks still decide the exchange margin
Cocoa certified stocks still set the exchange margin. Base case $5,200 into the December London last trading day; a weekly price above $5,950 ends the path.
EUR/CNH to 7.65: the reserve-ratio brake
EUR/CNH reaches 7.65 by February 4, 2027 as the PBOC lifts the forex reserve ratio to 6% and the ECB holds at 2.50%. A weekly close below 7.40 breaks the call.
Heating oil to $4.70: the distillate-stock case
New York Harbor heating oil at $4.47 a gallon is aimed at $4.70 by January 30, 2027, with weekly US distillate stocks 13% below the five-year average.
Bullwaves Prime review: regulated claim, SVG operator
Bullwaves Prime markets a regulated prop firm. Moonance LLC in Saint Vincent operates the challenges, the rules state an 80% split, and a 6% cap limits each payout cycle.
NOK/JPY to 17.40: Norges Bank's hold
NOK/JPY reaches 17.40 by December 23, 2026 if Norges Bank holds 4.50% against a Bank of Japan call rate near 1.25%. A weekly close below 16.70 ends the call.
NEOM Funded review: the reward cap under the drawdown
NEOM Funded's NEO NOVA cash cap sits under the drawdown on the card, the ACCESS coefficient starts at 70%, and the same-day reward line meets a 14-day contract wait.
MXN/JPY to 8.61: the survey-peso carry case
MXN/JPY reaches 8.61 by December 18, 2026 in the base case, from Banxico's 18.39 peso median and the November 3 ECB yen rate. A fix below 8.3167 breaks it.
FTSE 250 to 24,796: the priced Bank Rate step
The FTSE 250 reclaims 24,795.85 by the 5 November 2026 close if a step to 4% Bank Rate is priced. A close below 24,618.35 breaks the call.
VIX to 19.55: spot is rich to the curve
VIX spot at 20.83 is 1.28 points above the December VIX settlement. The base case is 19.55 into the next FOMC decision, and a close above 23.93 ends it.
KOSDAQ to 674: the hike-bias case
KOSDAQ's base case is 674.42 into the next Bank of Korea meeting after a 704.39 close, with the Board still pointing to further base-rate hikes.
USD/ARS to 1,552.30 if the reference crawl holds
USD/ARS reaches 1,552.30 by November 11, 2026 in the base case, 1,566.52 in the bull case and 1,514.57 in the bear case.
MDAX to 29,555.05 on the Bundesbank rate path
MDAX reaches 29,555.05 by December 17, 2026 as the Bundesbank transmits a 2.50% deposit facility and German banks tighten enterprise credit.
GBP/SGD to 1.7172: the Bank of England policy gap
GBP/SGD reaches 1.7172 by November 5, 2026 on a Bank of England 3.75% hold that keeps hike votes. XUDLSGS printed 1.7121. A close below 1.7044 breaks the case.
Also filing this week: Rick Steves and Karthik Subramanian.