Dow Jones to 49,918.78 by the October Fed
The Dow Jones base case is 49,918.78 by October 28, 2026, with output stalled and the funds-rate median at 4.1 per cent. Above 51,461.90, the call fails.
October 2026
The Dow Jones base case is 49,918.78 by October 28, 2026, with output stalled and the funds-rate median at 4.1 per cent. Above 51,461.90, the call fails.
Nasdaq 100 base case is 30,276.81 by October 28, 2026, with bull case 30,732.40 and bear case 28,937.84, as a higher real yield caps the post-hike rally.
Meridian Funded advertises zero denials and a 12-hour payout. The September terms allow a risk review and add 10% to the next payout if that clock is missed.
Best prop firms in 2026, compared on the drawdown that closes the account, the split paid on withdrawal one, and the payout rule each firm publishes.
The Russell 2000 base case is 2,822.21 by October 28, 2026, the September 30 high, if small-firm credit holds. A close under 2,792.48 breaks the call.
FundingTicks has halted trading. The homepage still sets full refunds, an 80% or 20% split, and support until 31 January, and the rewards total is not audited.
USD/SEK reaches 10.15 by November 4, 2026. A 213 bp gap between the Fed and the Riksbank outweighs a 1.85% path. A daily close below 9.78 ends the call.
CAD/JPY, last at 111.258, is seen at 109.78 by October 30, 2026 on the Bank of Japan Outlook, with Canada's report the offset. Above 113.48 the call fails.
September 2026
EUR/AUD reaches 1.6095 by November 3, 2026 after the RBA cash rate rose to 4.60% and August CPI hit 4.0%. A weekly close above 1.6438 invalidates the call.
Hypernova sells a one-step assessment at an 80% split, but the fills are simulated and its own pages disagree on the payout clock.
Investabl's payout ledger states a 10-second median, but the rows omit when a request was made.
SharkFunded’s Instant Bolt rules allow a payout request every 24 hours. The withdrawal page says 24 to 48 hours, and 14 reports average 39.2 days.
100X Club advertises instant payouts and no fine print, but its first two payouts are each capped at 6% of the account on a 10-day cycle, and the 95% split costs extra.
Pipstone Capital's homepage sells a 90% split and a refunded challenge fee. Its terms set an 80/20 default and say all payments are non-refundable.
Propanium sells a 90% split and 24-hour payouts, but each Smart Exit auto-close cuts the split by 10 points to 60%, and its contract makes every payout discretionary.
The US 10-year Treasury yield, at 5.24%, falls to 5.00% by the October 28 FOMC as a flat 32bp 2s10s curve squeezes out the hiking premium.
AUD/JPY targets 112.50 by November 3 as the RBA hikes toward 4.60% while two BOJ dissents against any hike slow the yen's tightening path from 1.25% now.
OneStopProp review: the "100% Refundable" badge shows on Instant plans its FAQ excludes, the Terms bar refunds, and the Wyoming LLC lapsed for 9 months.
LegionFunding review: Trustpilot claimed July 2026, company incorporated 11 August, plus refund, real-capital and drawdown claims its own Terms contradict.
Also filing this week: Rick Steves and Karthik Subramanian.