COLCAP to 2,390: Banrep's 12.25% rate still binds

The MSCI COLCAP reaches 2,390.51 by December 18, 2026 in the base case, 2,576.36 in the bull case and 2,328.56 in the bear case, because Banco de la República (Banrep) is still holding the policy rate at 12.25%. The November 13 close was 2,452.46, and half the slide from 2,576.36 is the base case.

The October 30 hold left the stance restrictive. October inflation was 6.30%, a 5.95 percentage point gap to the policy rate against a 3% target.

Key Levels for COLCAP into the December rate decision:

• COLCAP: 2,452.46, November 13, 2026 close — Investing.com historical series
• Base case target: 2,390.51 by December 18, 2026 — half the 123.90-point drop from 2,576.36
• Bull case target: 2,576.36 if December 18 holds 12.25% as the cycle peak
• Bear case target: 2,328.56 if December 18 adds 25 basis points
• Major support: 2,424.37 — November 13 session low on that series
• Major resistance: 2,490.92 — October 30 close, the session of the hold
• Invalidation level: daily close above 2,528.01, the November 10 close

How the December 18 horizon and the levels were set

The horizon is the next rate decision on Banrep's own calendar. The December 2026 Board page sets December 18 as the policy-rate meeting, with a blackout from December 12 to December 18, and lists November 30 as an ordinary meeting. The October 30 press release records four directors for the hold and three for a further 25 basis points.

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The tape is the Investing.com daily series from October 14 through November 13, with a 52-week range of 1,999.67 to 2,627.05. The exchange page still showed a November 9 last trade, so the spot is the vendor close. September inflation in the Bank's statement is 6.3%, and Portafolio put the DANE October print at 6.30%.

What the COLCAP tape shows against a 12.25% policy rate

November 13 closed at 2,452.46, down 0.02% on the day, after four lower closes from the November 9 print of 2,576.36. October 30 closed at 2,490.92, and the index is 1.54% lower since. El País put January's policy rate at 9.25%, 300 basis points under 12.25%.

Sources: Investing.com series, read November 14, 2026; Banrep press release, October 30, 2026; Portafolio, November 10, 2026, for the 6.30% DANE print.

The MSCI COLCAP is the flagship equity index of the Bolsa de Valores de Colombia, and the anchor for the next decision is the November 13, 2026 close of 2,452.46. That print is 123.90 points, or 4.81%, under the November 9 close of 2,576.36, and 6.65% under the 52-week high of 2,627.05, on the Investing.com series. The policy rate is 12.25% from October 1, after four directors voted to hold on October 30 and three voted for another 25 basis points. October inflation was 6.30% in Portafolio's account of the DANE figure, a 5.95 percentage point gap to the policy rate and a long way from the 3% target. Half of 123.90 is 61.95, and 2,452.46 minus 61.95 is 2,390.51, the base case for December 18. A daily close above 2,528.01, the November 10 close, retires that path before the Board sits.

"Las señales de enfriamiento de la economía se tuvieron en cuenta, pero son señales sobre las cuales tenemos que hacer seguimiento y que todavía no muestran un diagnóstico contundente."

— Leonardo Villar, general manager, Banco de la República (El País, October 30, 2026)

Why 12.25% still pulls the index toward 2,390.51

The October 30 statement kept a restrictive stance aimed at inflation declining in 2027. Core inflation excluding food and regulated prices was 6.0% in September, from 6.1% in August. The Bank called El Niño a material upside risk for food and regulated prices. El País put the recovery bill's 2027 adjustment at 2.35% of gross domestic product, and Portafolio had food inflation at 7.31% with a staff forecast above 7%.

A 12.25% policy rate pulls the MSCI COLCAP toward 2,390.51 by December 18, 2026 because cash yields dwarf the dividend slice in street work, and three of seven directors were still voting for a further rise on October 30. The decline from 2,576.36 on November 9 to 2,452.46 on November 13 is 123.90 points on the Investing.com series. Half of that decline is 61.95 points, and subtracting it from the latest close gives 2,390.51, using traded prices only. Analysts looked for 6.9% inflation by the end of 2026 on decision day, 3.9 percentage points over the 3% target. The bull case, 2,576.36, is the November 9 close if the meeting treats 12.25% as the cycle peak. The bear case, 2,328.56, repeats the full decline if the Board adds 25 basis points. Grupo Cibest's fair value of 2,625.8 is a longer mark, and the meeting map uses the slide.

El País said Acciones y Valores still looks for 25 basis points more in December, to 12.50%, then cuts toward 11.50% by the end of 2027. The same rate-versus-index tension is the point of the IPSA path, the STOXX 600 financing case and the MDAX path. An earlier peso note followed this 12.25% rate.

"Un déficit que podría superar de nuevo el 7% del PIB, en cambio, presiona los precios año tras año y es una de las razones por las que el Emisor mantiene su tasa en 12,25%."

— José David Caparroso Vargas, director, Portafolio (Portafolio, November 10, 2026)

Where a one-meeting rate map can miss the fundamental value

The map uses half of four down sessions, beside a tape still 22.64% above the 52-week low after a 300 basis point rise from 9.25% in January. El País reported Board authorisation to buy USD 2 billion from the government before year-end, with the peso liquidity offset so short rates stay with the stance.

Grupo Cibest, via Bloomberg Línea on November 10, raised fair value by 1.3% to 2,625.8. Of a 7.6% expected total return, 2.2 percentage points are dividends. From 2,452.46 that mark is 7.1% higher before dividends. Natural persons bought a net COP 76,443 million in October and pension funds sold a net COP 56,680 million.

"Es algo de lo cual sería muy deseable salir pudiendo reducir las tasas de interés. Por esa misma razón me encantaría poder bajarlas, me encantaría estar en una situación en la que eso fuera posible de una manera sostenible."

— Leonardo Villar, general manager, Banco de la República (El Tiempo, October 22, 2026)

What would invalidate the base case

The base case to 2,390.51 breaks if any one of these four signals prints:

• A daily close above 2,528.01 lands before or on December 18. That retraces more than half of the 123.90-point drop from the November 9 close.
• December 18 lowers the policy rate, or a majority votes for a cut. The fade treats 12.25% as still restrictive, and a cut takes that cap away.
• November DANE annual inflation prints at 6.0% or lower before December 18. That would narrow the 5.95 percentage point gap to October's 6.30%.
• The December 18 statement pulls the 3% target into 2027. Villar, via El País, kept the arrival around mid-2028, and an earlier date would be a different regime.

What to watch before the December rate decision

December 18 is the decision, with a blackout from December 12, and November 30 is the ordinary meeting. The levels ahead of the vote are 2,424.37 underneath, 2,490.92 as first resistance and 2,528.01 as invalidation. Cibest's 2,625.8 sits beside any bounce that stalls under 2,528.01, alongside the Market News coverage of indices and policy rates.

TL;DR of the COLCAP base path

The COLCAP base case is 2,390.51 by December 18, 2026, with 2,576.36 on a peak-rate hold and 2,328.56 if the Board adds 25 basis points. The November 13 close was 2,452.46 on the Investing.com series, down 123.90 points from November 9. Banrep held at 12.25% on October 30, four directors to three, and October inflation was 6.30% in Portafolio's account of the DANE print, a 5.95 percentage point gap. Half that slide, taken off the latest close, is the base case. A daily close above 2,528.01 retires the path.

FAQ on the COLCAP rate path

What is the COLCAP base case into the December rate decision?

The base case is 2,390.51 by December 18, 2026, the next rate decision on Banrep's calendar. The bull case is 2,576.36 if that meeting holds 12.25% as the peak, and the bear case is 2,328.56 if the Board adds 25 basis points. Each figure starts from the November 13 close of 2,452.46 on the Investing.com series.

Where does the 2,390.51 COLCAP target come from?

It is half of one traded decline. The index closed at 2,576.36 on November 9 and at 2,452.46 on November 13, a fall of 123.90 points. Half of that fall is 61.95 points, and 2,452.46 minus 61.95 equals 2,390.51. The sum uses closes only and stops at December 18. Grupo Cibest's 2,625.8 is a separate, longer fair value.

What policy rate is Banco de la República holding?

The policy rate is 12.25%, in force since October 1, 2026. On October 30 four directors voted to hold and three voted for 25 basis points more. El País recorded 9.25% in January, a rise of 300 basis points from then. Analysts looked for 6.9% inflation at the end of 2026, against a 3% target.

Which signals would invalidate the COLCAP base case?

Four prints end the fade to 2,390.51. A daily close above 2,528.01 retraces more than half the slide from November 9. A cut on December 18 removes the cap at 12.25%. November inflation at 6.0% or lower, if DANE publishes it before the meeting, narrows the gap to October's 6.30% reading.

How does Grupo Cibest's fair value differ from this path?

Grupo Cibest set fair value at 2,625.8, up 1.3% from its October 6 update, in research Bloomberg Línea reported on November 10. A 7.6% expected total return includes 2.2 percentage points of dividends. From 2,452.46 the fair value is 7.1% higher before dividends. The base case here is the slide to 2,390.51.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.