CAC 40 to 7,949 by October 29: the deposit-rate hold
The CAC 40 base case is 7,949 by October 29, 2026, half of a 2.13% week, if the ECB holds the deposit rate at 2.50%. A weekly close below 7,614 ends the call.
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Market calls with a spot, a target and an invalidation level.
270 stories since 2018
October 2026
PTC to $205 by April 4, 2027: the cash-spread case
PTC closed at $192.26 on October 5, leaving $12.74 to Schneider Electric's $205 cash price. The signed merger agreement's initial end date is April 4, 2027.
NVDA to $248 by November 17: the Q3 guide case
NVDA closed at $238.90 on October 5, 2026. Base case $248 by the November 17, 2026 call, bull $256, bear $230.86. A daily close below $221.56 ends it.
Silver to $57.62 by October 28: the real-yield case
Silver (XAG/USD) reaches $57.62 by October 28, 2026 if the 10-year real yield stays near 2.95% into the FOMC. A weekly close above $62.00 ends the call.
WTI to $86.52 by October 28 as Gulf supply returns
WTI crude at $90.12 is called to $86.52 by October 28, 2026 as a G7 stock release and firmer Gulf exports weigh on price. Weekly close above $99.37 ends it.
FTSE 100 to 10,577 by December 9: the gilt-relief case
The FTSE 100 base case is 10,577 by December 9, 2026, with 10,807 if gilt relief holds and 10,232 if the 2.2% weekly loss repeats. Under 10,117, the call ends.
Live cattle to 223.74 by October 23, 2026: the feedlot case
December 2026 Live cattle is called to 223.74 cents per pound by October 23, 2026.
Soybeans to 1,298.75 cents by October 9, 2026
November soybeans settled at 1,278.25 cents on October 2. The base case is 1,298.75 cents by the October 9, 2026 WASDE. Under 1,273.25 cents, the call breaks.
Dow Jones to 49,918.78 by the October Fed
The Dow Jones base case is 49,918.78 by October 28, 2026, with output stalled and the funds-rate median at 4.1 per cent. Above 51,461.90, the call fails.
Nasdaq 100 to 30,276.81 by October 28: real yields
Nasdaq 100 base case is 30,276.81 by October 28, 2026, with bull case 30,732.40 and bear case 28,937.84, as a higher real yield caps the post-hike rally.
Russell 2000 to 2,822 by October 28 on bank credit
The Russell 2000 base case is 2,822.21 by October 28, 2026, the September 30 high, if small-firm credit holds. A close under 2,792.48 breaks the call.
September 2026
US 10-year yield to 5.00% by October 28 as Fed hikes flatten the curve
The US 10-year Treasury yield, at 5.24%, falls to 5.00% by the October 28 FOMC as a flat 32bp 2s10s curve squeezes out the hiking premium.
AUD/JPY to 112.50 by November 3 as the RBA hikes into a split BOJ
AUD/JPY targets 112.50 by November 3 as the RBA hikes toward 4.60% while two BOJ dissents against any hike slow the yen's tightening path from 1.25% now.
GBP/CHF to 1.11 by November: three BoE hike votes vs a 0% SNB
GBP/CHF closed at 1.0974 on Sept 25. Three BoE hike votes against a 0% SNB put 1.1100 in play by the November 5 MPC, with 1.0880 as the invalidation level.
USD/CAD to 1.4250 by October 28 as the Fed hike outruns $92 oil
USD/CAD to 1.4250 by October 28: the Fed's hike widened the two-year spread to 146bp while the Bank of Canada holds at 2.25%.
EUR/NZD to 2.05 by October 29: the RBNZ-pause case
EUR/NZD to 2.05 by October 29: an RBNZ hold on October 28 and a still-hawkish ECB a day later, with the policy gap at just 25bp. Levels, triggers and risks.
CHF/JPY to 195 by October 30: the crowded-yen-long case
CHF/JPY to 195 by October 30: speculators swung 212,586 yen futures contracts long before the BOJ's 7-2 hike, while the SNB is set to hold at 0% on September 24.
USD/SGD forecast: 1.2620 by October 30 on a third MAS tightening
USD/SGD forecast: 1.2620 by October 30 as MAS core inflation hits 2.0% and a third S$NEER slope increase looks likely ahead of the October 27-28 FOMC.
GBP/USD to 1.3150 by the November MPC: the gilt-supply case
Three MPC hawks and a 4% inflation forecast did not lift sterling. GBP/USD to 1.3150 by 5 November 2026 because QT supply now prices the gilt curve.
EUR/SEK to 11.60 by November 11: the Riksbank-moves-too-late case
EUR/SEK to 11.60 by November 11 as the ECB's 2.50% deposit rate sits 75bp above a Riksbank with no inflation case to move before its November decision.
