GBP/CHF to 1.11 by November: three BoE hike votes vs a 0% SNB
GBP/CHF closed at 1.0974 on Sept 25. Three BoE hike votes against a 0% SNB put 1.1100 in play by the November 5 MPC, with 1.0880 as the invalidation level.
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Market calls with a spot, a target and an invalidation level.
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September 2026
USD/CAD to 1.4250 by October 28 as the Fed hike outruns $92 oil
USD/CAD to 1.4250 by October 28: the Fed's hike widened the two-year spread to 146bp while the Bank of Canada holds at 2.25%.
EUR/NZD to 2.05 by October 29: the RBNZ-pause case
EUR/NZD to 2.05 by October 29: an RBNZ hold on October 28 and a still-hawkish ECB a day later, with the policy gap at just 25bp. Levels, triggers and risks.
CHF/JPY to 195 by October 30: the crowded-yen-long case
CHF/JPY to 195 by October 30: speculators swung 212,586 yen futures contracts long before the BOJ's 7-2 hike, while the SNB is set to hold at 0% on September 24.
USD/SGD forecast: 1.2620 by October 30 on a third MAS tightening
USD/SGD forecast: 1.2620 by October 30 as MAS core inflation hits 2.0% and a third S$NEER slope increase looks likely ahead of the October 27-28 FOMC.
GBP/USD to 1.3150 by the November MPC: the gilt-supply case
Three MPC hawks and a 4% inflation forecast did not lift sterling. GBP/USD to 1.3150 by 5 November 2026 because QT supply now prices the gilt curve.
EUR/SEK to 11.60 by November 11: the Riksbank-moves-too-late case
EUR/SEK to 11.60 by November 11 as the ECB's 2.50% deposit rate sits 75bp above a Riksbank with no inflation case to move before its November decision.
AUD/CAD to 1.0150 by October 28: the 210bp gap case
AUD/CAD trades at 0.9959 on a 210bp policy gap and a 169bp two-year spread. Base case 1.0150 by the October 28 Bank of Canada decision, bear 0.9750.
EUR/CZK to 24.60 by November 5: the over-priced hikes case
EUR/CZK to 24.60 by November 5, 2026: Czech markets price 125bp of CNB hikes the bank's own forecast will not deliver, while the ECB keeps on hiking.
USD/INR forecast: 95.20 by October 7 as the RBI walls off 97
USD/INR forecast: 95.20 by the RBI's October 7 decision, as a record $785.7bn of reserves and a live hike debate cap the pair below 97 despite the Fed's hike.
USD/JPY into 18 September: the guidance gap, not the hike
The Fed and the Bank of Japan are both expected to tighten within three days, so USD/JPY prices the guidance differential, not the decisions. Base case 152.00.
EUR/PLN to 4.40 by November 4: the shrinking rate-gap case
EUR/PLN reaches 4.40 by November 4 in the base case as the NBP-ECB policy gap shrinks to 125bp. Key levels, catalysts and four signals that would break the call.
EUR/NOK to 11.00 by November 5 as the krone’s rate premium thins
EUR/NOK to 11.00 by Norges Bank's November 5 decision: the ECB's September hike has thinned the krone's rate premium and Norges Bank's FX flows now sell krone.
USD/JPY to 150 by October 30: the dissent-majority case
USD/JPY at 153.27 fell 4% while the US-Japan 2-year spread held at 259.7bp. Why Takata's 1.25% dissent, not carry, sets the path to 150 by October 30.
RBOB crack to $46 by October 30: the turnaround-squeeze case
The RBOB-Brent gasoline crack has priced September's grade switch but none of the Hormuz product shock. Base case $46/bbl by October 30; invalidation $33.70.
EUR/SEK back to 11.05 by September 30: the hike-signal case
EUR/SEK fixed at 11.1620 on September 7, 2026, a 12-month high. But the Riksbank governor has pre-announced a rise: the gap-compression case for 11.05.
US 30-year yield to 5.50% by October: the 20s30s case
The US 30-year Treasury yield, at 5.24%, reaches 5.50% by the October 27-28 FOMC as an inverted 20s30s spread repairs into a Fed priced to tighten.
GBP/AUD to 1.84 by the November RBA decision: the divergence case
GBP/AUD trades at 1.8783 after a 100 basis point swing in the RBA-BoE policy gap. Base case 1.8400 by the November 3 RBA decision; 1.9200 invalidates.
USD/BRL to 5.45 by the October 25 runoff: the crowded-carry case
USD/BRL to 5.45 by October 25, 2026: CME speculative long-real positioning sits at the 99th percentile as Copom goes dark for 49 days into the runoff.
Corn to $4.75 by the December 14 expiry: the crowded-long case
Managed money added 191,573 net corn contracts in a fortnight, into the second-largest US crop on record. Why CZ26 targets 475 c/bu by the 14 December expiry.
