USD/CZK to 21.861 if the two-week repo rate is held
USD/CZK reaches 21.861 on a 3.75% repo-rate hold. The bull case is 22.009, the bear case is 21.522, and an official CNB fixing below 21.593 ends the retest.
Desk
FOREX
Currency pairs, central banks and the brokers that price them.
132 stories since 2021
October 2026
EUR/DKK holds 7.4748 while the policy spread holds
EUR/DKK holds 7.4748 by December 17, 2026 if Danmarks Nationalbank keeps the current-account rate 40 basis points under the ECB deposit facility rate.
USD/HKD holds 7.8436 inside the peg band
USD/HKD holds 7.8436 through the October 28 FOMC, inside the HKMA convertibility band of 7.75 to 7.85. A print above 7.8500 breaks the band-hold call.
NOK/SEK fades to 1.05700 on the hike-news override
NOK/SEK fades to 1.05700 by November 5, 2026 as Riksbank hike talk overrides the year-to-date high. A Riksbank fixing above 1.06998 breaks the base case.
CAD/CHF to 0.5936 by the December 9 Bank of Canada fix
CAD/CHF reaches 0.5936 by December 9, 2026 in the base case on a 225 basis point policy gap. A daily Bank of Canada fixing below 0.5800 ends the call.
SGD/JPY to 122.45 by the October 30 BOJ outlook
SGD/JPY reaches 122.45 by October 30, 2026 as the yen firms into the Bank of Japan outlook and MAS holds the slope. A fix above 123.89 breaks the call.
USD/EGP to 54.3286 by 27 October: the buy-rate case
USD/EGP reaches the Central Bank of Egypt's official buy rate of 54.3286 by October 27, 2026. The call breaks if the official sell prints above 54.6086.
EUR/ZAR to 18.2290 by November 19: the gap still holds
EUR/ZAR reaches 18.2290 by November 19, 2026 if the 475-basis-point SARB-ECB gap holds. A fixing above 18.6489 breaks the call.
EUR/TRY back to 55.3021 by the October 22 CBRT hold
EUR/TRY base case is a 55.3021 euro selling rate by October 22, 2026 if the CBRT holds the one-week repo at 37 percent. Above 55.7523 the call breaks.
EUR/RON to 5.3400 by November 12: the reference path
The EUR/RON base case is 5.3400 by November 12, 2026, from the National Bank of Romania’s October 19 reference of 5.3272, with outer cases at 5.3600 and 5.3156.
USD/DKK to 6.6646 by October 29: spread stays -40bp
USD/DKK reaches 6.6646 by October 29, 2026, the October mean of Danmarks Nationalbank's dollar fixing, if the -40bp spread holds. Below 6.5834 the call breaks.
USD/MYR to 4.1050 by November 5 on post-hold drift
USD/MYR reaches 4.1050 by November 5, 2026 in the base case, from an October 16 KL reference of 4.0837. A daily print below 4.0692 breaks the higher call.
GBP/ZAR to 21.70 by 5 November: the rand carry case
GBP/ZAR reaches 21.70 by November 5, 2026 in the base case. The October 15 Bank of England reference was 21.8884, and a daily print above 22.15 breaks the call.
USD/HUF to 325.91 by 20 October 2026 if the MNB holds
USD/HUF is called at 325.91 by October 20, 2026, the mean of October's official MNB dollar fixings, if the Council holds the base rate at 5.50 percent.
USD/COP to 3,072.27 by 30 October 2026 on peso carry
USD/COP, on the official TRM at 3,174.67, reaches 3,072.27 by 30 October 2026 if the 12.25% rate keeps peso carry. A print above 3,312.84 breaks the call.
USD/PEN to 3.3500 by November 12: the surplus case
USD/PEN reaches 3.3500 by November 12, 2026 in the base case, from the October 15 interbank average of 3.4279. A daily average above 3.4520 breaks the call.
USD/TWD to 31.795 by 17 December 2026: the surplus case
USD/TWD reaches 31.795 by December 17, 2026 as the trade surplus pulls the pair back to the October 7 close. A weekly close above 32.454 breaks the call.
USD/CLP to 997.75 by 27 October 2026, the hold case
USD/CLP reaches 997.75 by 27 October 2026 as the rise since the September hold extends into a Banco Central de Chile hold. A print below 945.87 ends the call.
GBP/NOK to 12.5480 by November 5: the rate-gap case
GBP/NOK reaches 12.5480 by November 5, 2026 in the base case while the 75 basis-point gap holds. A Norges Bank daily fixing above 12.7558 breaks the call.
NZD/CHF to 0.47155 by December 10: the OCR carry case
NZD/CHF reaches 0.47155 by December 10, 2026 as the 275bp OCR gap over a 0% SNB rate meets a 50% retracement. A daily close below 0.46390 breaks the call.
