MDAX to 29,555.05 on the Bundesbank rate path

MDAX reaches 29,555.05 by December 17, 2026 in the base case, 32,009.92 in the bull case and 28,637.79 in the bear case. The path runs through the deposit facility, which the European Central Bank (ECB) held at 2.50% on October 29, 2026, and which the Deutsche Bundesbank transmits into German bank credit.

The latest official Xetra close was 30,472.32 on October 30, 2026, down 326.33 points, or 1.06%, on the Deutsche Börse feed for ISIN DE0008467416.

Key levels for the MDAX path, each tied to the Deutsche Börse record or to the quarter-gap arithmetic, are set out below.

• Asset: MDAX at 30,472.32, the Xetra close on October 30, 2026 at 17:50 Central European Time.
• Base case target: 29,555.05 by December 17, 2026, the close minus one quarter of the gap to the 52-week low.
• Bull case target: 32,009.92, halfway back to the 52-week high of 33,547.52, if December 17 cuts the deposit facility.
• Bear case target: 28,637.79, halfway to the 52-week low of 26,803.25, if December 17 lifts the deposit facility.
• Major support: 30,384.85, the October 30 session low on the Xetra feed.
• Major resistance: 30,766.28, the October 30 session high on the Xetra feed.
• Invalidation level: a daily close above 30,766.28, which would retire the drift towards 29,555.05.

Methodology

The spot is the Deutsche Börse Xetra record for ISIN DE0008467416, read on November 2, 2026 and time-stamped October 30, 2026 at 17:50 Central European Time. The 52-week high, the 52-week low and the session range come from that record. Policy rates come from the ECB decision of October 29, 2026 and the key-rate table. The horizon is the next monetary-policy press conference on the Governing Council calendar, December 17, 2026. Credit conditions come from the Bundesbank Bank Lending Survey (BLS) of October 27, 2026. The quarter-gap rule is a distance on those prints, and a fitted beta sits outside the arithmetic.

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The Data

Sources: Deutsche Börse Xetra, October 30, 2026, 17:50 Central European Time (prior is the session point change, companion the session high, outer marker the 52-week low); ECB key-rate table, deposit facility 2.50% from September 16, 2026 versus 2.25% from June 17, 2026, with 2.65% the main refinancing rate and 2.90% the marginal lending facility; Bundesbank BLS, October 27, 2026, 33 banks, 100% response. Window: June 17, 2026 to October 30, 2026.

The MDAX is the mid-cap equity index on the Deutsche Börse Xetra feed under ISIN DE0008467416, and the latest official close is 30,472.32, time-stamped October 30, 2026 at 17:50 Central European Time. That session finished 326.33 points, or 1.06%, under the previous close, inside a high of 30,766.28 and a low of 30,384.85, with the 52-week high at 33,547.52 and the 52-week low at 26,803.25. One quarter of the 3,669.07-point gap from the close to that low is 917.27 points, which sets the base case at 29,555.05 by December 17, 2026. The ECB kept the deposit facility at 2.50% on October 29, 2026, beside a 2.65% main refinancing rate and a 2.90% marginal lending facility. The Bundesbank survey put the net share of banks tightening enterprise standards at +6% in the third quarter, and banks named the higher general level of interest rates as the main reason enterprise loan demand fell.

The monetary policy statement put September inflation at 3.8%, up from 3.2% in August, and energy price inflation at 18.9%, up from 14.3%. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

"Financing conditions have tightened since our last meeting, which is likely to weigh on inflation and growth."

— Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, monetary policy statement, Frankfurt am Main, October 29, 2026 (European Central Bank)

The Mechanism

The Bundesbank rate path is the set of ECB policy rates that the Deutsche Bundesbank publishes and implements in Germany, with the deposit facility as the overnight anchor. That rate stands at 2.50% after the October 29 hold, having risen from 2.25% with effect from June 17, 2026 to 2.50% with effect from September 16, 2026. Joachim Nagel, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, recorded on October 5, 2026 that the Governing Council raised key rates by 25 basis points in June and again in September, leaving the deposit facility at 2.5 percent. The October lending survey found this rate level was the primary reason enterprise loan demand fell, above all at small and medium-sized firms and in long-term loans, and banks plan a further minor tightening of corporate standards in the fourth quarter. That credit channel is what carries the October 30 close of 30,472.32 towards 29,555.05 by the December 17, 2026 press conference.

The Bundesbank rate pages state that ECB interest rates are published by the Bundesbank after monetary policy was transferred to the European System of Central Banks. The same hold is the hinge in the BEL 20 halfway case on an ECB hold and the CAC 40 deposit-rate hold, while the Euro Stoxx 50 live-hike case tracked the earlier path.

"According to the latest assessment by Bundesbank staff, Germany has entered a gradual recovery. Robust foreign orders and improving industrial sentiment signal broad-based momentum."

— Joachim Nagel, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, keynote speech, Sorrento, October 5, 2026 (Deutsche Bundesbank)

In that speech Nagel put German real growth at around 1 percent for the year and cited ECB staff figures of 0.9 percent growth in 2026, with inflation averaging 3.0 percent in 2026. That recovery is why the bull case sits at 32,009.92 if December 17 eases the deposit facility.

What the Model Misses

The quarter-gap rule is a distance on the 52-week range, and a fitted response of the MDAX to a 25-basis-point move sits outside it. The analogue Nagel described is two increases of 25 basis points, in June and in September, then the October 29 hold. Another hold maps to 29,555.05, a third increase maps towards 28,637.79, and a cut maps towards 32,009.92. Single-name gaps and the fiscal package he cited can move the index by more than 917.27 points while the deposit facility stays at 2.50%.

Disconfirmation

The base case to 29,555.05 breaks if any one of these four signals prints:

• A Xetra daily close above 30,766.28, the October 30 high, would reclaim the post-decision range and retire the drift towards 29,555.05.
• A December 17 cut in the deposit facility from 2.50% would replace the hold and hand the path to the bull case of 32,009.92.
• A December 17 statement describing easier financing conditions than in October would remove the tightening leg in Lagarde's remarks and in the +6% survey share.
• A Xetra daily close above 32,009.92 before the decision would mean the recovery Nagel described has already overwhelmed the quarter-gap path.

What to Watch Next

The next monetary-policy press conference on the ECB calendar is December 17, 2026, after a first meeting day on December 16, 2026. The November 25, 2026 entry on that calendar is a non-monetary-policy meeting, so the rate decision in this horizon is December 17. Compare the deposit facility with 2.50%, financing conditions with the October 29 wording, and the Xetra tape with 30,384.85 and 30,766.28. The next Bundesbank lending survey checks the minor tightening banks planned for the fourth quarter. Related index work sits on the Market News desk.

TL;DR

MDAX base case is 29,555.05 by December 17, 2026, with a bull case at 32,009.92 and a bear case at 28,637.79. The latest official Xetra close was 30,472.32 on October 30, 2026, down 1.06% on the Deutsche Börse feed. The European Central Bank held the deposit facility at 2.50% on October 29, and the Deutsche Bundesbank survey put the net share of banks tightening enterprise credit standards at +6% in the third quarter. The base case breaks on a Xetra daily close above 30,766.28, the October 30 session high, or if the December 17 decision cuts the deposit facility or describes easier financing conditions than in October.

FAQ

What is the MDAX base case, and which official date does the horizon use?

The MDAX base case is 29,555.05 by December 17, 2026, with a bull case of 32,009.92 and a bear case of 28,637.79. The date is the press conference on day two of the next ECB monetary policy meeting on the Governing Council calendar, and the spot is the Xetra close of 30,472.32 on October 30, 2026.

Which policy rate is the Deutsche Bundesbank transmitting in this path?

The anchor is the ECB deposit facility at 2.50%, held on October 29, 2026 with the main refinancing rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending facility at 2.90%. It moved from 2.25% on June 17, 2026 to 2.50% on September 16, 2026. The Bundesbank publishes those rates and implements them in Germany.

What did the October Bank Lending Survey report on loans to firms?

German banks tightened enterprise credit standards in the third quarter, with a net share of +6% against +10% previously, the Bundesbank said on October 27, 2026. Loan demand fell for the first time in more than two years, mainly at small and medium-sized firms, because of the higher general level of interest rates. All 33 banks in the German sample replied between September 21 and October 6, 2026.

Which Xetra print would invalidate the drift towards 29,555.05?

A Xetra daily close above 30,766.28, the October 30 session high, invalidates the drift towards 29,555.05 because it reclaims the range after the hold. The session low of 30,384.85 is nearby support on the same feed. A close above 32,009.92 would mean the recovery case had overwhelmed the quarter-gap path before December 17, while 28,637.79 remains the bear case halfway to the low.

How is 29,555.05 calculated from the October 30 close?

The gap from the October 30 close of 30,472.32 to the 52-week low of 26,803.25 is 3,669.07 points. One quarter of that gap is 917.27 points, and subtracting it from the close produces 29,555.05. The bull level 32,009.92 and the bear level 28,637.79 are the halfway marks back to the 52-week high and down to the 52-week low.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.