CAC 40 to 7,949 by October 29: the deposit-rate hold

The CAC 40 reaches 7,949 by October 29, 2026 in the base case, 8,116 in the bull case and 7,698 in the bear case.

The horizon is October 29, 2026, day two of the Governing Council meeting in Frankfurt, when the ECB calendar has the press conference. The Financial Times historical sheet put the October 6 cash close at 7,865.07, 170.80 points under the September 29 close of 8,035.87. That gap rounds to 2.13%, the one-week change MarketScreener prints. The October 7 session was already open and is not the spot. Four signals would break the thesis.

Key Levels:

• CAC 40: 7,865.07 — October 6, 2026 close, Financial Times historical prices via LSEG
• Base case target: 7,949 by October 29, 2026 — half of a 2.13% week, from 7,948.83
• Bull case target: 8,116 — one and a half increments if the deposit rate stays at 2.50% with no December pre-commitment
• Bear case target: 7,698 — one increment lower if October 29 raises the deposit facility rate
• Major support: 7,796.58 — October 5 low, Financial Times sheet
• Major resistance: 8,068.51 — September 30 high, same sheet
• Invalidation level: weekly close below 7,614 — one and a half increments under the October 6 close

How the 7,949 base case is built

The spot is the October 6 cash close. The October 7 session was already open, so it is excluded. One and a half increments are 251.29 points, which round to 8,116 above 7,865.07 and to 7,614 below it. One full increment below is 7,698. A printed week of 2.12% would round the base case to 7,948. This note uses 2.13% of the latest close. Sources are the Financial Times LSEG sheet through October 6, MarketScreener’s −2.13% week, and the September 10 decision. The window is September 29 to October 6. The calendar matches October 28–29 and December 16–17, and it does not label an October projections round.

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What the October 6 close and the August inflation print show

The CAC 40 base case of 7,949 by October 29, 2026 is half of one weekly-loss increment added to the last completed cash close. The Financial Times historical sheet shows 8,035.87 on September 29 and 7,865.07 on October 6. The difference is 170.80 points, or 2.125% of the earlier close, which rounds to 2.13%. MarketScreener’s Euronext Paris page prints that one-week change as −2.13%. One increment is 2.13% of 7,865.07, or 167.53 points to the nearest hundredth. Half of the unrounded increment is 83.76 points, and 7,865.07 plus 83.76 is 7,948.83, which this note rounds to 7,949. The bull case adds one and a half increments, to 8,116. The bear case subtracts one full increment, to 7,698. A weekly close below 7,614 ends the higher base case. It does not import an outside price target.

Sources: Financial Times (LSEG) through October 6; MarketScreener’s −2.13% week; ECB decision and statement, September 10, 2026; Schnabel, September 30, 2026. HICP is the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices.

"And I can assure you that we are not taking a view as to which direction we go at our next meeting."

— Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, European Central Bank (ECB press conference, Berlin, September 10, 2026)

Why a hold at 2.50% only returns half the week

A hold at a 2.50% deposit facility rate is the condition for the CAC 40 base case of 7,949, not a claim that the European Central Bank has finished tightening. On September 10, 2026 the Governing Council raised the three key rates by 25 basis points, setting the deposit facility rate at 2.50%, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.90% from September 16, the September 10 press release says. Isabel Schnabel said on September 30 that the key rates had risen 50 basis points since June, from a deposit rate of 2% to 2.5%. The same staff baseline has 2026 inflation at 3.0%, and the press-conference statement put August HICP at 3.3%, up from 2.9% in July. The base case therefore returns only half of the 2.13% week by October 29.

The same release said the Eurosystem no longer reinvests principal from the asset purchase programme (APP) and the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP). Services inflation fell to 3.0% in August, from 3.3%, and firm lending rates were 3.8% in July, from 3.6% in May. Lagarde called the decision a unanimous “no-brainer” and said the next step “will be determined at each and every meeting.” The FTSE 100 call into December 9 uses the same half-increment method. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude into October 28 is a separate oil case, not an input. Since the August 19 cut-off, Schnabel said, oil and gas had moved closer to the adverse scenario, “implying a larger and more persistent deviation of inflation from our 2% target.”

Where a one-week percentage band fails

A 2.13% week cannot price a French sovereign gap. On September 10 Lagarde declined to comment on spreads. She said “Cancellation of debt is covered under Article 123” and that going against that financing “would be a pure violation of the Treaty.” The band is also one week, not a return to early September. The September 8 session high was 8,320.05, 454.98 points above the October 6 close, and 8,116 does not reclaim it. The open print of 7,818.23 was already 46.84 points under the spot. A November 17 guide on NVDA sits after this horizon and is not an input.

"Central banks cannot wait for these effects to materialise. If policymakers waited for firms to visibly raise prices and wage negotiations to conclude, they would be acting too late."

— Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank (speech in Luxembourg, September 30, 2026)

What would invalidate this call

The base case to 7,949 breaks if any one of these four signals fires.

• A weekly CAC 40 close below 7,614. That is one and a half increments under 7,865.07, rounded from 7,613.78. The direction is below, because the base case sits above the spot.
• A deposit facility rate above 2.50% on October 29, 2026. A higher setting is the bear case of 7,698, and it ends the hold that 7,949 requires.
• A cash close below 7,796.58 before October 29. That is the October 5 low, 68.49 points under the spot. A finished session through that low means the half-retracement has lost the week’s floor.
• An October 29 statement that pre-commits to a rise on December 16–17. Booking the next monetary-policy meeting removes the pause, even if October 29 itself is a hold.

Otherwise 7,698 is the downside path. EUR/CAD into the same October 29 decision is a separate cross, not a level here.

What to watch into October 29

October 28 is day one in Frankfurt. October 29 is day two, followed by the press conference, and this call is dated by that day. The next monetary-policy meeting is December 16 and December 17, with a press conference on the second day. November 25 is a non-monetary-policy meeting. November 26 is a General Council meeting. The cash levels that matter before the decision are 7,796.58 and 7,614. The July unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.4% on the September statement, and firm lending rates were 3.8%. Those are transmission checks, not new targets. No October staff round is assumed, because the calendar page does not label one.

TL;DR

The CAC 40 base case is 7,949 by October 29, 2026. Bull and bear cases are 8,116 and 7,698, from fractions of the 2.13% week on the October 6 close of 7,865.07. The hold required is a deposit facility rate left at 2.50%. August HICP was 3.3%, up from 2.9% in July, on the September 10 statement. The call fails on a weekly close below 7,614, a higher deposit rate on October 29, a close below the October 5 low of 7,796.58, or a statement that pre-commits to a December 16–17 rise.

FAQ

What is the CAC 40 base-case target by October 29, 2026?

The base case is 7,949. Half of the 2.13% week, applied to the October 6 close of 7,865.07, is 83.76 points to the nearest hundredth, and 7,865.07 plus 83.76 is 7,948.83, which rounds to 7,949. The bull case is 8,116 and the bear case is 7,698. The horizon is the October 29 press conference, and the base case also needs the deposit facility rate left at 2.50%.

Which print is the spot in this call?

The spot is 7,865.07, the October 6, 2026 cash close on the Financial Times historical sheet. The day’s range was 7,837.95 to 7,916.71, and the close was 30.97 points above 7,834.10. Paris was already open on October 7. MarketScreener showed 7,818.23 at 09:06:45, so no unfinished price is used. The 2.13% week, measured from the September 29 close of 8,035.87, is the increment behind every target in the call.

What level invalidates the higher target?

A weekly cash close below 7,614. That is one and a half increments under 7,865.07, rounded from 7,613.78, and it sits under the October 5 low of 7,796.58. The base case is above the spot, so the invalidation direction is below. Only a weekly close counts, not an intraday stab through 7,614.

Why is the horizon October 29, 2026, and not the December meeting?

The ECB calendar lists October 28 as day one of the monetary-policy meeting in Frankfurt and October 29 as day two, followed by a press conference. December 16 and December 17 are the next monetary-policy dates, with a press conference on the second day. November 25 is a non-monetary-policy meeting and November 26 is a General Council meeting. The horizon sentence is by October 29, 2026.

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