NVDA to $248 by November 17: the Q3 guide case

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) reaches $248 by November 17, 2026 in the base case, $256 in the bull case and $230.86 in the bear case. The base case adds half of the September 21-to-October 5 range to the October 5 close, into the third-quarter fiscal 2027 call dated on the company's August 26 earnings call.

NVDA closed at $238.90 on October 5, 2026, up $4.95, or 2.12%, from the October 2 close of $233.95, on Nasdaq's historical trades table and quote summary as read on October 6, 2026. That close stood above the $237.88 level the same summary still listed as the 52-week high. The session high was $240.0983. What follows tests that close against the August 26 outlook.

Key Levels:

• Asset: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) at $238.90, the October 5, 2026 close — Nasdaq historical trades table, read October 6, 2026
• Base case target: $248 by November 17, 2026 — half of the $17.34 September 21 low-to-October 5 close range, added to $238.90 and rounded to the nearest dollar
• Bull case target: $256 — the full $17.34 range added to the October 5 close ($256.24, rounded), if the November 17 outlook keeps the $108.0 billion third-quarter frame
• Bear case target: $230.86 — the October 1, 2026 close, if the October 2 and October 5 push fails
• Major support: $233.95 — October 2, 2026 close, same Nasdaq table
• Major resistance: $240.0983 — October 5, 2026 session high, same table
• Invalidation level: a daily close below $221.56 — September 21, 2026 low, same table

How this note read the tape and the filings

Prices are the Nasdaq historical trades table for NVDA from September 21, 2026 through October 5, 2026, and the quote summary read on October 6, 2026. Fundamentals are the second-quarter fiscal 2027 release, the chief financial officer's commentary, the posted transcript and the events feed. No China Data Center revenue is added back into the outlook.

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A 52-week closing high in front of an old guide

Sources: Nasdaq historical trades table and quote summary, read October 6, 2026; NVIDIA second-quarter fiscal 2027 release, August 26, 2026. Price window: September 21 to October 5, 2026. China cell: the outlook assumes none, shown as zero. The October 5 close is a 52-week closing high versus the summary's $237.88 high, not an all-time high.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) carries a base-case price of $248 into the November 17, 2026 earnings call, set against a close of $238.90 on October 5, 2026. The figure is range arithmetic, not a discounted-cash-flow value. The September 21, 2026 low on Nasdaq's historical trades table was $221.56. The gap from that low to the October 5 close is $17.34. Half of that gap is $8.67, and $238.90 plus $8.67 is $247.57, which this note rounds to the nearest dollar. The bull case of $256 is the full $17.34 added to the close ($256.24, again rounded to the nearest dollar). The bear case of $230.86 is the October 1 close, the last settlement before the October 2 and October 5 push. A daily close below $221.56 retires the range, because that session is the only anchor under the extension.

The guide those levels sit under was already six weeks old by the close. Second-quarter revenue was $96.2 billion, up 18% on the prior quarter and 106% on the year-ago quarter, with Data Center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117% on the year. Generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) and non-GAAP gross margins were both 75.0%. GAAP diluted earnings per share were $2.46 and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $2.22. The third-quarter outlook is $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, which is $105.84 billion to $110.16 billion on that stated percentage, about 12.2% above the $96.221 billion just reported. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are guided at 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points. GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses are guided at about $9.2 billion and $9.0 billion. The release states that Nvidia is not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China.

"We expect to grow revenue by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028. This is a supply-constrained outlook."

— Colette M. Kress, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, NVIDIA Corporation (Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings-call transcript)

Why the base case stops at $248, not at the one-year target

Nasdaq's quote summary showed a one-year target of $315.00. This call ends on November 17, 2026, so that figure is not the bull case. The desk's Nasdaq 100 piece into October 28 is a real-yield argument, and an earlier AI-capex ceiling on the Nasdaq 100 already treated hyperscaler spending as a cap.

The half extension is favoured because the $108.0 billion outlook was public on August 26, and the buyback was not an October 5 surprise. The August 26 release put quarterly returns near $26.0 billion and the remaining authorisation near $99.0 billion. The September 28 release added $150 billion and set the remainder at $235 billion. Those remainders are not 99 plus 150, and the gap is not filled in here. Kress set cloud backlog above $2 trillion and a fourth-quarter gross-margin bottom of 71% to 72%. A known guide plus a lower margin is why $248 is the base and $256 only the bull case, as in the year-end S&P 500 capex note.

What a single September low cannot carry

The September 21 low of $221.56 is one session, not a multi-week shelf, and the 52-week low of $164.27 is unmapped by this range. Toshiya Hari, vice president of investor relations, closed the August 26 call with September 10, then October 21, then November 17. The August 27 release dates September 10 in 2026, and the transcript prints no year on November 17, so 2026 is read from that order. On October 6 the events feed had no upcoming row. The posted file is a FactSet corrected transcript. Inventory of $32 billion, from the same call, is a reminder that the quarter is also a working-capital quarter.

"The unconstrained would be a lot higher. We grew 100% year-over-year this year. The unconstrained is significant. And so, we're just going to have to go work hard to get more capacity."

— Jen Hsun Huang, Founder, President, Chief Executive Officer and Director, NVIDIA Corporation (Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings-call transcript)

What would invalidate this call

The base case of $248 by November 17, 2026 breaks if any one of these four observations is met:

• A daily close below $221.56. That September 21, 2026 low is the anchor. Without it, $248 and $256 are only rounded dollars.
• Nvidia says third-quarter revenue will come in below $105.84 billion. That is the bottom of the $108.0 billion guide, plus or minus 2%. A cut under the band removes the frame the price is being asked to hold.
• The fourth-quarter gross-margin floor is set below 71%. Kress put that bottom in a 71% to 72% range. A lower floor means the margin path used here was wrong.
• The third-quarter call is moved off November 17, 2026. The horizon is that date. A different day, sooner or later, retires the timing.

What to watch before November 17

October 21, 2026 is the GTC Berlin keynote Hari named. The events feed does not list it. November 17, 2026 is the earnings call. Watch for a new calendar entry, for revenue guidance against $105.84 billion or $110.16 billion, and for a fourth-quarter gross-margin floor still at or above 71%. Only a daily close below $221.56 invalidates the base case.

TL;DR

NVDA closed at $238.90 on October 5, 2026, above the $237.88 52-week high still on Nasdaq's quote summary. The base case is $248 by November 17, 2026, half the range from the September 21 low of $221.56, with $256 as the bull case and $230.86 as the bear case. Third-quarter revenue was guided at $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, on August 26. The call fails below $221.56, or if revenue is guided under that band, or if the fourth-quarter gross-margin floor goes under 71%, or if the November 17 call is moved.

FAQ

When is Nvidia's next earnings call?

Nvidia's events feed showed no upcoming event on October 6, 2026. The November 17 date is in the Q2 fiscal 2027 transcript posted with that quarter's financial report. Toshiya Hari closed the August 26 call by setting the third-quarter call for November 17, after September 10 and October 21. The August 27 release dates the Goldman Sachs session as September 10, 2026, so that November 17 is 2026. The transcript does not print the year.

What did NVDA close at on October 5, 2026?

Nasdaq's historical trades table shows an October 5 close of $238.90, from an open of $236.09, a high of $240.0983 and a low of $235.15, on volume of 127,171,500 shares. The quote summary showed a gain of $4.95, or 2.12%, on the October 2 close of $233.95, and a 52-week high still at $237.88. The range field had not caught the session. This note uses the historical row.

What is the third-quarter revenue outlook?

The August 26, 2026 release sets third-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue at $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, a band of $105.84 billion to $110.16 billion. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are guided at 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points, and operating expenses at about $9.2 billion and $9.0 billion. The outlook assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China. Against second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, the midpoint is about 12% higher.

What would invalidate the $248 base case?

Four observations retire the $248 base case. A daily close below the September 21, 2026 low of $221.56 removes the anchor. Revenue guided below $105.84 billion, the bottom of the published band, removes the fundamental frame. A fourth-quarter gross-margin floor under 71%, below the range Colette M. Kress gave on August 26, breaks the margin path. Moving the call off November 17, 2026 means the horizon was wrong.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.