Soybeans to 1,298.75 cents by October 9, 2026

Soybeans on the November 2026 Chicago Board of Trade contract reach 1,298.75 cents per bushel by October 9, 2026 in the base case, 1,332.25 cents in the bull case and 1,237.50 cents in the bear case. The contract settled at 1,278.25 cents on October 2, 40.75 cents under the September 25 settlement, on closes Farmbucks compiles from DTN and CME Group. WASDE-675 cut ending stocks to 310 million bushels. The next balance sheet is the October 9 WASDE. Any one of four signals breaks the call.

Key Levels:

• Soybeans: November 2026 CBOT (ZSX26) at 1,278.25 cents per bushel — October 2, 2026 settlement, Farmbucks via DTN and CME Group
• Base case target: 1,298.75 cents by October 9, 2026 — midpoint of 1,319.00 (September 25) and 1,278.25, next quarter-cent
• Bull case target: 1,332.25 cents — September 10 settlement, if October 9 ending stocks fall below 300 million bushels
• Bear case target: 1,237.50 cents — another 40.75 cents under the October 2 settlement, if stocks are 320 million bushels or more
• Major support: 1,200.00 cents — WASDE-675 farm price of $12.00 per bushel, at 100 cents to the dollar
• Major resistance: 1,319.00 cents — September 25 settlement, start of the 40.75-cent decline
• Invalidation level: a settlement below 1,273.25 cents — October 2 session low on the Farmbucks overview

How this soybean call was built

The horizon is the next report that rewrites the soybean balance. The USDA WASDE calendar sets the October 2026 release for 12:00 p.m. Eastern time on October 9. The NASS calendar lists Crop Production at 12:00 p.m. Eastern time that morning. The October file was not on the server when this note was filed, so the sheet in use is WASDE-675.

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The spot is the October 2 settlement of 1,278.25 cents, from Farmbucks using Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closes supplied by DTN and CME Group. CME Group's own site refused this session. Successful Farming printed the same close as $12.78¼. October 4 was a Sunday, so there is no later settlement. The low of 1,273.25 cents is that day's range low on the Farmbucks overview. The same method rule sits behind the corn call and the wheat call.

What WASDE-675 actually changed

A soybean stocks-to-use ratio is ending stocks divided by total use. In the September 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, report WASDE-675, the World Agricultural Outlook Board set 2026/27 US soybean ending stocks at 310 million bushels and total use at 4,575 million bushels. Dividing those figures gives 6.8 per cent. The August column of the same table had 320 million bushels of stocks and 4,549 million bushels of use, or 7.0 per cent. The ratio tightened even though the crop got larger. September production is 4,535 million bushels, up 16 million from August, on a yield of 52.8 bushels per acre across 85.9 million harvested acres. Exports rose 25 million bushels to 1,685 million, while crush stayed at 2,780 million. The season-average farm price was raised 60 cents, to $12.00 per bushel. A report on October 9 that repeats these lines does not hand harvest selling a fresh supply shock.

Source: USDA WASDE-675, September 2026. Stocks-to-use of 6.8 per cent is 310 divided by 4,575, to one decimal. Time window: the September 11, 2026 release.

World ending stocks are 124.02 million metric tons, against 124.21 in August. Brazil stays at 186.00 million metric tons and China's imports at 115.00. NASS said on September 30 that old-crop soybeans were down 3 per cent from a year earlier and gave no bushel total, so the 325 million beginning stocks stand until October 9. Farm Progress, citing USDA, put sales for the week ended September 24 at 1.034 million metric tons, up 78 per cent.

"Soybean prices continue to come under pressure despite the continued strength on the demand side as forecasts point to an opening window for U.S. farmers to play catch-up on harvest. Elsewhere on the weather front, Brazil has seen excellent September rains to help build soil moisture profiles to benefit continued planting progress and early crop development."

— Mike Castle, analyst, StoneX (Farm Progress, October 2, 2026)

Why 1,298.75 cents is the base case into October 9

The base-case soybean price is the midpoint of two settlements, not a prediction of the crop report's yield. Farmbucks, using Chicago Board of Trade settled closes from DTN and CME Group, records September 25 at 1,319.00 cents per bushel and October 2 at 1,278.25 cents. The gap is 40.75 cents. Half of that gap is 20.375 cents, so the midpoint is 1,298.625 cents. Settlements print in quarter-cent steps, and the next step above the midpoint is 1,298.75 cents, the base case for October 9, 2026. Successful Farming's October 2 report printed the same close as $12.78 and one-quarter, down 40 and three-quarters cents on the week, the same gap. The bull case, 1,332.25 cents, is the September 10 settlement and the 20-session high, and it needs ending stocks below 300 million bushels. The bear case, 1,237.50 cents, repeats the 40.75-cent move once more under the October 2 settlement.

Exports rose by more than production, so stocks fell. A neutral October 9 print, yield still 52.8 and stocks still 310 million, does not confirm the 40.75-cent break. Price then only has to recover half of it.

What the half-retracement leaves out

Two settlements are a thin model. The 60-session low on the Farmbucks page is 1,168.75 cents, from August 11, and a real supply shock points there. Beginning stocks are still 325 million bushels because September 30 stated no bushel figure. China's 115.00 million metric tons of imports and Brazil's 186.00 million metric ton crop were unchanged. The $12.00 farm price sits 78.25 cents under the $12.7825 settlement, so it is support, not the five-day target.

"If I had to disagree with USDA at all, I think they’re underestimating demand. Both soybean processors and ethanol manufacturers are making good money, and exports are large. We just do not see any evidence so far that we’re seeing any type of demand destruction."

— Al Kluis, managing director, Kluis Commodity Advisors (Iowa Soybean Association, September 17, 2026)

What would invalidate this call

The base case to 1,298.75 cents by October 9 breaks if any one of these four signals prints:

• Ending stocks of 320 million bushels or more. The October 9 WASDE would restore the August carryout and remove the 6.8 per cent stocks-to-use leg. The bear case at 1,237.50 cents then replaces the base case.
• A yield above 52.8 bushels per acre. Harvested area is 85.9 million acres, so each extra tenth of a bushel is 8.59 million bushels the September export increase has not absorbed.
• A settlement below 1,273.25 cents on any session from October 5 through October 9. That is the October 2 low. Harvest selling would already have broken the week's range.
• Exports cut below 1,660 million bushels. That reverses the 25 million bushel increase from September and fails the demand leg, not the yield leg.

What to watch before the October 9 lockup

October 5 brings Crop Progress at 4:00 p.m. Eastern time. It does not reset yield or stocks. The decision is October 9 at 12:00 p.m. Eastern time. A yield of 52.8 and stocks of 310 million leave the base case. Stocks under 300 million are the bull case, and 320 million or more are the bear case. Other calls on this desk sit under market news.

TL;DR

November 2026 soybeans settled at 1,278.25 cents per bushel on October 2, 2026. The base case is 1,298.75 cents by October 9, 2026, the midpoint of the fall from the September 25 settlement of 1,319.00 cents, stepped to the next quarter-cent. The bull case is 1,332.25 cents if the October 9 WASDE cuts 2026/27 ending stocks below 300 million bushels. The bear case is 1,237.50 cents if stocks print at 320 million or higher. WASDE-675 put ending stocks at 310 million bushels against total use of 4,575 million, a 6.8 per cent stocks-to-use ratio. A settlement below the October 2 session low of 1,273.25 cents invalidates the call.

FAQ

What is the soybean price target for October 9, 2026?

The base case for soybeans is 1,298.75 cents per bushel on the November 2026 contract by October 9, 2026. That is the midpoint of the September 25 settlement at 1,319.00 cents and the October 2 settlement at 1,278.25 cents, lifted from 1,298.625 cents to the next quarter-cent. The bull case is 1,332.25 cents and the bear case is 1,237.50 cents. The date is the WASDE release at 12:00 p.m. Eastern time.

What did the September WASDE say about US soybean stocks?

WASDE-675 put 2026/27 US soybean ending stocks at 310 million bushels, down 10 million from August's 320 million. Total use was 4,575 million bushels, so stocks-to-use was 6.8 per cent. Production was 4,535 million bushels on a yield of 52.8. Exports were 1,685 million bushels. The farm price was $12.00, up 60 cents. That is the sheet this call carries into October 9.

Why does October 9 matter more than Crop Progress?

October 9 replaces the soybean balance sheet. The WASDE calendar sets 12:00 p.m. Eastern time, and the NASS calendar lists Crop Production at the same hour. Crop Progress on October 5, at 4:00 p.m. Eastern time, updates harvest pace only. It does not rewrite yield, exports or ending stocks. The call runs to the balance-sheet print because that is what can move the 310 million bushel figure.

What price would invalidate the soybean call?

The call fails if November soybeans settle below 1,273.25 cents. That is the October 2 session low on the Farmbucks overview, where the day's range was 1,273.25 to 1,285.75 cents. A settlement under that low means the half-retracement to 1,298.75 cents is the wrong map. Ending stocks of 320 million bushels or more on October 9 also fail the call, even if the low holds.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.