Nasdaq 100 to 30,276.81 by October 28: real yields

The Nasdaq 100 reaches 30,276.81 by October 28, 2026 in the base case, 30,732.40 in the bull case and 28,937.84 in the bear case, because a higher real yield caps the post-hike rally while AI capital expenditure keeps a full give-back of that rally from being the central path.

The Nasdaq 100 base case is 30,276.81 by October 28, 2026, the bull case 30,732.40 and the bear case 28,937.84. It rests on a 49-basis-point rise in the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield, from 2.44 per cent on September 1 to 2.93 per cent on September 30, in the Federal Reserve H.15 release. The index closed at 30,501.56 on October 1. Four prints would kill the call.

Key Levels:

• Nasdaq 100: 30,501.56, the October 1, 2026 close, Nasdaq via FRED NASDAQ100 and the Nasdaq overview.
• Base case target: 30,276.81 by October 28, 2026, the September 28 close.
• Bull case target: 30,732.40, the September 22 close, if the 10-year TIPS yield falls towards 2.62 per cent.
• Bear case target: 28,937.84, the September 15 close, if capex guidance is cut and the TIPS yield prints above 2.93 per cent.
• Major support: 30,274.65, the October 1 low, 2.16 points under the September 28 close.
• Major resistance: 30,616.24, the October 1 high.
• Invalidation level: a daily close above 30,732.40.

How these levels were built

Index levels are Nasdaq daily closes in FRED series NASDAQ100 from August 3 through October 1, 2026, plus the October 1 high of 30,616.24 and low of 30,274.65 on the Nasdaq overview. That page showed 30,501.56, a net change of 93.06 and 101 components. Yields are H.15 through September 30 only, via DFII10, DFII5, DGS10 and DGS2. The June 30 fact sheet listed 102 securities, the weights and realised volatility of 18.22 per cent. Capex is Microsoft's Form 10-K and the funds path is the September 16 projections. Breakevens are the nominal yield minus the TIPS yield. Turnover is not used.

Related:US 10-year yield to 5.00% by October 28 as Fed hikes flatten the curve

What the September tape did while real yields rose

On September 16 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the funds range by a quarter point, to 3.75 to 4 per cent, by a vote of 12 to 0. The close was 28,945.06, then 30,732.40 on September 22, up 6.17 per cent. The October 1 close of 30,501.56 sits 0.75 per cent under that high.

Sources: Nasdaq closes via FRED NASDAQ100; yields via DFII10, DFII5, DGS10 and DGS2, republishing the H.15 release. Window: September 1 to September 30, 2026.

A real-yield duration call on the Nasdaq 100 is a statement about the discount rate on long-dated cash flows. From September 1 to September 30 the 10-year TIPS yield rose from 2.44 per cent to 2.93 per cent, 49 basis points, and the nominal 10-year from 4.79 per cent to 5.29 per cent, 50 basis points, on the Federal Reserve H.15 prints in FRED. The gap was 2.35 percentage points, then 2.36, so the backup was a real-yield backup. The 10-year minus the two-year was 40 basis points, then 41, and the slope did not move. The Nasdaq 100 close went from 29,077.22 to 30,408.50, up 4.58 per cent, and stalled once the TIPS yield pushed through 2.76 per cent on September 23. The base case is a retest of the September 28 close, 30,276.81, by October 28, 2026, rather than a break of the September 15 close.

"Second reason, competition for capital. The surge in capital expenditures, which I referenced in my remarks, is real, and the so-called hyperscalers are out in the market raising funding. And so the competition for capital is real, and I think it partly explains the increase in yields."

— Kevin Warsh, Chairman, Federal Reserve (press conference transcript, September 16, 2026)

Why AI capital expenditure does not cancel the discount rate

The September 16 statement called capital investment robust. Jefferson's October 1 account put first-half GDP growth at 2.4 per cent and August unemployment at 4.1 per cent. The median end-2026 funds rate was 4.1 per cent, from 3.8 per cent in June. Median 2026 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation was 3.7 per cent and core PCE 3.4 per cent. On June 30 the fact sheet put technology at 68.51 per cent, and Nvidia, Apple, Micron, Microsoft, Advanced Micro Devices and Amazon at 7.60, 6.67, 5.64, 4.35, 4.11 and 4.03 per cent, together 32.40 per cent. See the nominal 10-year path into October 28.

AI capital expenditure holds the Nasdaq 100 up only while spending still reaches revenue and funding does not reprice the discount rate faster than the cash flows arrive. Microsoft's Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2026 puts property and equipment payments at $115,948 million, against $64,551 million the year before. A $51.4 billion increase in those additions, inside a $66.9 billion rise in investing outflow, took cash used in investing to $139.5 billion. Cash and short-term investments were $76.8 billion, down from $94.6 billion. The figures are cash paid in the year ended June 30, 2026, not an accrual. Warsh said hyperscaler funding partly explained higher yields. The base case treats that funding as the cap, and the spend as the reason 28,937.84 is the bear case rather than the path into October 28.

A further AI spending surge could lift growth above Jefferson's baseline, which 30,732.40 would require, with the TIPS yield back towards 2.62 per cent. The same real-rate move shows up in bullion with the opposite sign. The base case goes the other way, to 30,276.81.

What the real-yield cap fails to explain

From September 16 to September 22 the Nasdaq 100 rose 6.17 per cent while the TIPS yield slipped from 2.68 to 2.63 per cent, then rose from 30,276.81 to 30,501.56 as the yield ticked from 2.90 to 2.93 per cent. June 30 realised volatility of 18.22 per cent scales to about 1.15 per cent a session on a 252-day desk convention, so the 0.74 per cent gap sits inside one session.

"Looking ahead, I anticipate that AI-related investments will continue to support growth this year, and, accordingly, I expect near-term real GDP growth to remain roughly the same as the pace seen in the first half of the year."

— Philip N. Jefferson, Vice Chair, Federal Reserve Board (speech at the University of Virginia Darden School of Business, October 1, 2026)

What would invalidate this call

The base case, a Nasdaq 100 close at 30,276.81 by October 28, breaks if any one of these four signals fires:

• A daily close above 30,732.40. That September 22 close is the bull case and the invalidation.
• The 10-year TIPS yield at or below 2.62 per cent before October 28. The September 15 reading removes the discount-rate leg.
• An October 28 cut that takes the funds range below 3.75 per cent. That removes the duration pressure.
• A filing that cuts the capex path in the June 30, 2026 Form 10-K, or the same cut at another of the six largest June weights. That makes 28,937.84 the destination.

What to watch before October 28

The FOMC calendar lists October 27-28, 2026. Statements this year have come on the second day, so the horizon is October 28. The page, updated September 16, 2026, shows no October statement. The projection mark sits on December 8-9. Until then the object is the H.15 10-year TIPS yield, and whether it holds above 2.63 per cent. On the index, 30,616.24 and 30,274.65 are the October 1 high and low. See the long-bond case for this autumn and Market News.

TL;DR

The Nasdaq 100 base case is 30,276.81 by October 28, 2026, the bull case 30,732.40 and the bear case 28,937.84. The October 1 close was 30,501.56. The 10-year TIPS yield rose from 2.44 per cent to 2.93 per cent from September 1 to September 30, 49 basis points on H.15, and the breakeven barely moved. Microsoft paid $115,948 million for property and equipment in fiscal 2026. A close above 30,732.40, or a TIPS yield at or below 2.62 per cent, kills the call.

FAQ

What is the Nasdaq 100 base case into October 28?

The base case is a Nasdaq 100 close at 30,276.81 by October 28, 2026, the September 28 settlement. October 1 was 30,501.56, so the call is 0.74 per cent under it. The bull case is 30,732.40 and the bear case is 28,937.84. The call needs the 10-year TIPS yield above 2.62 per cent.

Why does the real yield matter more than the curve's slope?

From September 1 to September 30 the nominal 10-year rose from 4.79 per cent to 5.29 per cent and the TIPS yield from 2.44 per cent to 2.93 per cent on H.15. The 10-year minus the two-year went from 40 basis points to 41. The backup was the real yield, which is the discount rate in this Nasdaq 100 call.

How does AI capital expenditure fit a call that is not bullish?

Spending is why 28,937.84 is not the base case. Microsoft's Form 10-K shows $115,948 million of property and equipment payments in the year to June 30, 2026, up from $64,551 million. Jefferson said AI investment should keep supporting growth. Warsh said hyperscaler funding helps explain higher yields. Funding raises the discount rate and keeps the base case under 30,732.40.

What price would show this Nasdaq 100 call is wrong?

A daily close above 30,732.40, the September 22 high, which is the bull target and the invalidation. It also fails if the 10-year TIPS yield is at or below 2.62 per cent before October 28, or if the funds range is cut below 3.75 per cent. A capex cut makes 28,937.84 the destination.

Which releases matter before October 28?

The FOMC calendar sets October 27-28, 2026, and this note uses October 28. Projections are marked for December 8-9, not October. H.15 carries the 10-year TIPS yield. At or below 2.62 per cent the discount-rate leg is gone. Above 2.93 per cent, with a capex cut, the path points to 28,937.84. Watch 30,274.65, 30,616.24 and 30,732.40.

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