USD/COP to 3,072.27 by 30 October 2026 on peso carry

USD/COP reaches 3,072.27 by 30 October 2026 in the base case, 3,048.12 in the bull case and 3,349.63 in the bear case. The base case is a retest of the 12 September fixing, with the 12.25% policy rate still feeding peso carry.

The Tasa Representativa del Mercado (TRM), Colombia's certified average of spot dollar trades, fixed at 3,174.67 pesos per US dollar on 17 October 2026, valid through 19 October 2026. That print is 138.17 pesos, or 4.17%, below the 1 October 2026 fixing of 3,312.84, and 616.10 pesos, or 16.25%, below the 3 January 2026 fixing of 3,790.77, on the Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia series. The gap still open is 102.40 pesos to the 12 September low.

Key Levels:

• USD/COP: 3,174.67, TRM dated 17 October 2026, valid through 19 October 2026 — Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia, datos.gov.co series 32sa-8pi3
• Base case target: 3,072.27 by 30 October 2026 — the 12 September 2026 TRM low, before the late-September backup
• Bull case target: 3,048.12 — the 22 August 2026 TRM low, if the 30 October meeting hikes again
• Bear case target: 3,349.63 — the 29 September 2026 TRM high, if that appreciation reverses
• Major support: 3,170.46 — the 16 October 2026 TRM low
• Major resistance: 3,312.84 — the 1 October 2026 TRM, first fixing with the 12.25% rate in force
• Invalidation level: a TRM fixing above 3,312.84 — the post-decision appreciation leg is then gone

How the fixings and the board papers were used

Every peso level above is a fixing from the Superintendencia Financiera TRM series, dataset 32sa-8pi3, not a screen price. The window is 3 January 2026 through 17 October 2026, 187 fixings. The rate decision is the Banco de la República press release of 30 September 2026 and the minutes dated 6 October 2026. The next meeting is on the board calendar, with the blackout notice running from 24 October to 30 October 2026. The US rate is the Federal Reserve open-market table. No options skew and no surveyed 30 October vote are on those pages. Consumer prices after August are omitted because the board papers stop there. Related work is on the forex desk.

Related:USD/TWD to 31.795 by 17 December 2026: the surplus case

The TRM path from the January high to the October rate

The 2026 high in this file is 3,790.77 on 3 January and the low is 3,048.12 on 22 August. The TRM then rose 301.51 pesos to 3,349.63 on 29 September, and October has given much of that back, to 3,174.67.

Sources: Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia, Tasa de Cambio Representativa del Mercado, datos.gov.co series 32sa-8pi3, retrieved 17 October 2026. Changes are arithmetic on those fixings. Time window: 3 January 2026 to 17 October 2026.

USD/COP here means the official TRM, the certified peso price of one US dollar. The base case is 3,072.27 by 30 October 2026, the fixing of 12 September 2026. Spot is 3,174.67 on 17 October 2026, so that target is 102.40 pesos, or 3.23%, under the latest print. The bull case is 3,048.12, the 22 August 2026 low. The bear case is 3,349.63, the 29 September 2026 high. Banco de la República raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to 12.25%, in force from 1 October 2026. Four directors voted for the increase, two voted for no change and one voted for 50 basis points. The Federal Reserve's target range is 3.75% to 4.00% after a 25 basis point rise on 17 September 2026. A TRM fixing above 3,312.84 invalidates the lower path.

"The financing involves capital inflows that feed the supply of foreign currency, and in that way it becomes an important source of appreciation of the peso."

— Leonardo Villar, Governor, Banco de la República (Finance Colombia, reporting the 26 August 2026 remarks via Infobae)

Why carry still points at the September low

Directors who voted to hold described a policy rate of 12% in August against inflation of 6.2%, which "implies an ex post real interest rate close to 6%," even "despite the 275-basis-point increase in the interest rate since the end of 2025". They added that "a considerable interest rate differential relative to advanced economies still encourages carry trade operations that contribute to pressure for peso appreciation." The majority hiked anyway: headline inflation rose from 6.0% in July to 6.2% in August, more than twice the 3% target, with December 2026 expectations at 6.8%. The minutes also note dollar strength against emerging currencies, including Colombia. The US 10-year yield note follows that leg into 28 October.

The carry case for USD/COP is a retest of a traded fixing, not a new fair-value estimate. The base case of 3,072.27 is the 12 September 2026 TRM low, the last trough before the backup to 3,349.63 on 29 September. From the 1 October fixing of 3,312.84 the TRM has already fallen 138.17 pesos, or 4.17%, to the 17 October print of 3,174.67. Closing the gap takes another 102.40 pesos. The policy rate is now 12.25%, in force since 1 October, 25 basis points above the 12% rate the hold camp described for August. The bull fixing, 3,048.12 on 22 August, is only 24.15 pesos under the base case and would need another hike on 30 October. The bear fixing, 3,349.63, is where the series went when appreciation reversed into the decision. The source for each peso level is the Superintendencia Financiera TRM series.

The majority warned that tighter external conditions could raise the risk premium and reverse the appreciation. That reversal already printed at 3,349.63. Giving back the 138.17 pesos since 1 October would break 3,312.84 and retire the call first. Carry argues against that over 13 days after a hike.

What a prior-low target leaves out

A past fixing is not a magnet. The fall from 3,440.83 on 1 July to 3,132.42 on 31 July, 308.41 pesos, and the 301.51 peso rise into 29 September show that a 102.40 peso gap can close, or the bear case can be overrun, inside this same series. The horizon is 13 days, with a media blackout from 24 October, so the board will not brief the move in public before the decision. The 6.05 percentage point gap between 12.25% and August's 6.2% inflation is arithmetic, not a published real rate, and the US gap is simply 12.25% minus 4.00%, or 8.25 percentage points.

"the movement responds in large part to the entry of investors who are betting on an eventual shift toward greater economic orthodoxy in Colombia and Latin America."

— Felipe Campos, investment and strategy manager, Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria (Finance Colombia, reporting remarks of 24 August 2026 via El Colombiano)

What would invalidate this call

Any one of these four signals breaks the base case:

• A TRM fixing above 3,312.84. That 1 October 2026 print is the line. A move back through it reverses the October appreciation.
• The 30 October decision takes the policy rate below 12.25%. A cut removes the carry leg. A hold does not. A further hike points to the bull case.
• The 30 October statement drops the restrictive stance that the 30 September text said the decision maintains.
• December 2026 analyst expectations print at or below the 3% target. The September survey, in the 30 September release, had them at 6.8%.

What to watch before the 30 October decision

The meeting is on 30 October 2026. The blackout runs from 24 October to 30 October: no interviews, and no meetings with investors, analysts or journalists. Watch each TRM fixing against 3,170.46, against 3,072.27 and against 3,312.84. Minutes are due on the third business day after the meeting. The US funds range last changed on 17 September, to 3.75% to 4.00%. The October Fed equity note is the desk's companion on that backdrop. The papers consulted do not date the next inflation release, so this call does not use one.

TL;DR

USD/COP, on the official TRM, is 3,174.67 at the 17 October 2026 fixing. The base case is 3,072.27 by 30 October 2026, the 12 September low, with a bull case at 3,048.12 and a bear case at 3,349.63. Banco de la República raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to 12.25% on 30 September, in force from 1 October. Since 1 October the TRM is down 138.17 pesos, or 4.17%, from 3,312.84. A fixing above that print invalidates the lower path. The board meets on 30 October.

FAQ

What is the USD/COP base case into 30 October 2026?

The base case is a TRM of 3,072.27 by 30 October 2026, the official fixing of 12 September 2026. Spot on 17 October 2026 is 3,174.67, so the call is a further decline of 102.40 pesos, or 3.23%. The bull case is 3,048.12 and the bear case is 3,349.63, both from the same Superintendencia Financiera series.

What policy rate applies at the next board meeting?

The rate in force is 12.25%. The press release of 30 September 2026 said the board increased the policy rate by 25 basis points to that level, effective from 1 October 2026. The minutes, dated 6 October 2026, record four votes for the increase, two for no change and one for 50 basis points. The next policy-rate meeting on the calendar is 30 October 2026.

Where does the 3,174.67 spot come from?

It is the TRM with a start date of 17 October 2026 and an end date of 19 October 2026 on the Superintendencia Financiera series on datos.gov.co. The TRM is the weighted average of spot US dollar trades against Colombian legal tender. It is not an intraday extreme. Weekend fixings cover more than one day, which is why the 17 October print runs through 19 October.

What single print would break the call?

A TRM fixing above 3,312.84, the 1 October 2026 print, the first with the 12.25% rate in force. The TRM has since fallen 138.17 pesos from it. The base case extends that fall towards 3,072.27. A move back above 3,312.84 ends the October appreciation even if the board holds the rate.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.