LME nickel cash to $15,800: the shed still pays carry

London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel cash reaches $15,800 per tonne by February 12, 2027 in the base case, $16,675 in the bull case and $14,885 in the bear case, because 272,724 tonnes of exchange stock still fund a $205 contango.

Official cash settled at $16,025 per tonne on November 13, 2026, with the three-month at $16,230 and stock at 272,724 tonnes, via Westmetall's table of LME prices. A shed 6.8% heavier than on January 2, in contango for all 221 sessions, is the path back towards the November mean.

Key levels for the cash settlement:

• LME nickel: cash $16,025/t, three-month $16,230/t, stock 272,724 tonnes on November 13, 2026 — Westmetall
• Base case target: $15,800/t by February 12, 2027 — the 10 November cash settlements average $15,815
• Bull case target: $16,675/t — September 9 cash, if stock falls under 255,282 tonnes and cash trades above the three-month
• Bear case target: $14,885/t — October 15 cash low, if stock rises through 285,168 tonnes
• Major support: $15,200/t — November 3 cash settlement, Westmetall
• Major resistance: $16,190/t — November 9 cash, then $16,400/t, that session's three-month
• Invalidation level: official cash above $16,400/t — the November 9 three-month

How the cash, the stock and the prompt date were fixed

Prices come from the Westmetall table of LME nickel cash settlement, three-month official and stock for all 221 sessions from January 2 through November 13, 2026. The LME defines that settlement as the official cash seller's price in its official and settlement prices guide. Closes stay out of the levels: LME Insight put the November 6 three-month close at $16,353 against a Westmetall official of $16,280. The prompt checker maps November 13 to a cash prompt of November 17, 2026 and a three-month prompt of February 12, 2027. Cancelled warrants in the levels are the November 6 Insight split.

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Cash rose with the quota headlines, and the shed barely flinched

LME nickel cash is the official seller's price for metal delivered on the cash prompt, and exchange stock is the tonnage in LME-approved warehouses against that contract. On November 13, 2026 cash was $16,025 per tonne and stock was 272,724 tonnes, while the three-month official was $16,230, a contango of $205, on the Westmetall table. The prompt checker maps that business date to a cash prompt of November 17, 2026 and a three-month prompt of February 12, 2027. From October 15, cash has risen $1,140, or 7.7%, and stock has fallen 9,342 tonnes, or 3.3%, while the contango has narrowed $35, from $240 to $205. The 10 cash settlements in November average $15,815. A shed still paying the holder to carry metal into the February prompt is the cushion under the $15,800 base case.

Sources: Westmetall LME nickel officials and stock. Spread is the three-month minus cash. All 221 sessions from January 2 through November 13 printed a contango.

"Why are prices falling? Because our production is out of control. Global demand is only 3.5 million metric tons per year. Now there's an oversupply of nearly 800,000 metric tons. How could prices possibly remain high?"

— Bahlil Lahadalia, energy and mineral resources minister and coordinating minister for downstream industrialisation and energy transition, Republic of Indonesia (Jakarta Globe, remarks on November 2, 2026 at Minerba Convex)

Why the on-warrant pile still sets a ceiling for cash

The cash-to-three-month contango is the price of time on the LME nickel curve. A holder who buys cash metal, stores it and sells the three-month collects the gap, and on the November 13 officials that gap is $205 per tonne. LME Insight put November 6 stock at 271,968 tonnes, cancelled warrants at 13,494 tonnes, or 5.0%, and on-warrant metal at 258,474 tonnes, and wrote that 95% of warehouse metal was still on warrant. After meetings in Lisbon, the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) put 2026 production at 3.87 million tonnes and usage near 3.85 million tonnes, up 7.6%, a 19,000-tonne surplus widening to 70,000 tonnes in 2027, Reuters reported on October 13, 2026. With the on-warrant share still near 95% and the contango open, cash has a path back towards the November mean of $15,815 by February 12.

LME nickel specifications limit the warrant to primary metal of 99.80% minimum purity, in cathodes, pellets, briquettes or rounds, in 6-tonne lots. Pig iron and most ore sit outside that warrant, so a quota headline can lift cash and still leave the shed financing carry. The $15,800 base case rounds the November mean and sits $225 under the November 13 settlement. "The INSG expects the stainless steel sector to expand further in the second half of 2026 and through 2027," the group said in a statement carried by that Reuters report, which also said battery use had grown more slowly than expected because of lithium iron phosphate competition.

Where a cash-versus-stock frame is thin

Exchange stock counts deliverable Class 1 units and skips the pig iron and intermediates that dominate Indonesian exports, so ore can tighten while cathode piles up. The minister's nearly 800,000 metric tons, the INSG 19,000-tonne surplus and the London stock of 272,724 tonnes are three different piles, and only the London total enters the price level.

The same inventory logic appears in the iron-ore call built on Chinese port stocks, the cocoa reading of certified stocks and the exchange margin, and the heating-oil call built on distillate stocks. Further coverage sits on the market-news desk.

"We are encouraged by the group's performance in the first nine months of the year, supported by higher shipment volumes, improved nickel ore prices and continued operational efficiencies."

— Dante Bravo, president, Global Ferronickel Holdings Inc. (The Manila Times)

Bravo runs a Philippine ore shipper. The same report puts the nine-month average realised price at $37.39 per wet metric tonne, up 16.9% from $31.99.

What would invalidate the base case

The base case of $15,800 by February 12, 2027 breaks if any one of these four signals prints:

• An official cash settlement above $16,400 per tonne. That November 9 three-month is the highest three-month print from November 2 to November 13, and cash through it would take out the forward price the contango rests on.
• Exchange stock printing under 255,282 tonnes. That January 2 reading is the lightest stock in the 221-session table, so a break under it would end the heavier-shed claim against the $16,765 cash print of that day.
• An official session with cash above the three-month. All 221 sessions printed a contango, so one backwardation would be a regime change in the carry.
• Cancelled warrants above 15% of reported stock. The November 6 split was 5.0% cancelled, with 258,474 tonnes on warrant, and a share above 15% would mean holders pulling metal at three times that pace.

What to watch into the February prompt

November 15, 2026 is the date Reuters, citing the INSG, gave for 2027 ore-quota applications, and the quota after that window either extends the early-November rally or leaves the drift towards $15,800 in place. Daily marks are Westmetall cash, the three-month and stock, at 255,282 tonnes, 285,168 tonnes and a $205 contango. The LME prompt-date structure puts monthly prompts on the third Wednesday, so December 16, 2026 is the interim prompt and February 12, 2027 stays the binding three-month date, with last trading to 12:30 the business day before. The next INSG meetings, the week of April 19, 2027, fall after this horizon.

TL;DR

LME nickel cash settled at $16,025 per tonne on November 13, 2026, with the three-month at $16,230 and stock at 272,724 tonnes, a $205 contango on Westmetall. The base case is $15,800 by February 12, 2027, because the shed is 6.8% heavier than on January 2 and all 221 sessions kept the three-month above cash. Bull case $16,675 needs stock under 255,282 tonnes and a flipped curve, bear case $14,885 needs stock through 285,168 tonnes, and cash above $16,400 ends the base case. Reuters put the INSG 2026 surplus at 19,000 tonnes.

FAQ

What is the base-case target for LME nickel cash?

The base case is $15,800 per tonne by February 12, 2027, the three-month prompt the LME checker assigns to November 13, when cash was $16,025. It rounds the 10 November settlements, which average $15,815, and sits $225 under that print if stock stays above 255,282 tonnes and the curve stays in contango. Cash above $16,400 ends the path before the prompt.

Why does warehouse stock matter when Jakarta is cutting ore quotas?

LME nickel cash prices metal on warrant, at 99.80% minimum purity and in 6-tonne lots, so an ore quota reaches the settlement once it changes deliverable stock. From October 15 to November 13 stock fell 3.3% and cash rose 7.7%, while the contango narrowed by $35, and the 272,724-tonne shed still financed carry to February 12.

What contango is showing, and which date does the three-month mean?

On November 13, 2026 the three-month was $16,230 and cash was $16,025, a $205 contango on Westmetall, and the prompt checker dates that three-month at February 12, 2027. All 221 sessions from January 2 kept the three-month above cash, and the widest gap in the table is the $240 contango on October 15 and on November 2.

Which prints would end the base case before the prompt?

Four prints end the base case before February 12: cash above $16,400, stock under 255,282 tonnes, one official with cash above the three-month, or cancelled warrants above 15% of stock. The November 6 split was 5.0% cancelled, with 258,474 tonnes still on warrant, so 15% would be three times that pace and would break the open-contango path.

How does the INSG surplus compare with the minister's oversupply figure?

They measure different piles, and the price level uses the exchange print. Reuters put the INSG 2026 surplus at 19,000 tonnes on October 13, against an April deficit forecast of 32,000 tonnes, and the 2027 surplus at 70,000 tonnes. Lahadalia spoke on November 2 of an oversupply near 800,000 metric tons, while Westmetall stock that day was 278,238 tonnes.

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