Austrian Traded Index to 6,546 on an ECB hold

The Austrian Traded Index reaches 6,546 by December 17, 2026 in the base case, 6,849 in the bull case and 6,437 in the bear case. The base case is a drift back to the Vienna Stock Exchange settlement of October 16 if the European Central Bank (ECB) leaves the deposit facility rate at 2.50% at its next monetary-policy press conference.

The cash index closed at 6,654.83 on November 13, 2026, down 31.06 points, or 0.46%, on the Vienna Stock Exchange print at 17:50:01. That leaves the index 388.44 points under the 52-week high of 7,043.27 and 108.93 points above the October 16 settlement of 6,545.90, with a year-to-date gain of 25.19% still in the level. The path to 6,546 runs through the December 17 press conference on the ECB Governing Council calendar.

Key Levels:

• Asset: Austrian Traded Index (ATX) at 6,654.83 — Vienna Stock Exchange, November 13, 2026, 17:50:01
• Base case target: 6,546 by December 17, 2026 — October 16 settlement of 6,545.90, to the nearest point
• Bull case target: 6,849 — midpoint of 6,654.83 and the 52-week high of 7,043.27, if ex-energy inflation cools
• Bear case target: 6,437 — the 108.93-point gap below the October 16 settlement, if the deposit rate is lifted
• Major support: 6,545.90 — settlement price, October 16, 2026
• Major resistance: 7,043.27 — 52-week closing high, Vienna Stock Exchange
• Invalidation level: weekly close above 6,718 — session high of 6,718.18 beside the 6,685.89 close

How the 6,546 map was built

Levels come from the Vienna Stock Exchange page for the Austrian Traded Index, ISIN AT0000999982, on November 15, 2026: the November 13 close, the 52-week range and the October 16 settlement. A prior close of 6,685.89 sits beside the session high of 6,718.18. The horizon is December 17, 2026 on the ECB Governing Council calendar, day two in Frankfurt. Rates are the September 10 and October 29 releases, activity is the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) report of November 10, and weights are September 30 figures via Börsen-Kurier. The ATX is a price index, so a dividend yield near 4% sits in the total-return series.

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Bank weight, the 2.50% deposit rate and the November print

In the May sector split, finance was 48%. September 30 weights put Erste Group at 19.7%, BAWAG at 15.2% and Raiffeisen Bank International at 9.0%, so the three banks were 43.9%, with OMV at 12.9% and Andritz at 6.7%.

On September 10 the ECB raised the three key rates by 25 basis points, to a deposit facility of 2.50% and main refinancing of 2.65% from September 16. On October 29 the Council left those rates in place. Euro-area inflation was 3.8% in September, from 3.2% in August, with energy inflation at 18.9% and inflation excluding energy at 2.3%. The firm lending rate was 3.8% in August, while lending growth to firms slowed to 4.2%.

Sources: Vienna Stock Exchange ATX page, November 15, 2026; ECB releases of September 10 and October 29, 2026; WIFO, November 10, 2026. Window: the October 16 settlement through the November 13 close.

The Austrian Traded Index is the Vienna Stock Exchange price index of the 20 largest and most liquid listed companies in Austria, under ISIN AT0000999982. It closed at 6,654.83 on November 13, 2026, timestamped 17:50:01, after a fall of 31.06 points, or 0.46%. The same page puts the 52-week high at 7,043.27, with a year-to-date gain of 25.19%. Finance was 48% of the index in the May sector split. On September 30 weights, Erste Group, BAWAG and Raiffeisen Bank International together were 43.9%. The base case takes the index to 6,546 by December 17, 2026, day two of the next ECB monetary-policy meeting, if the deposit facility stays at 2.50%. That figure is the October 16 settlement of 6,545.90, to the nearest point. A weekly close above 6,718 would clear the 6,718.18 high and retire the retrace.

"Financing conditions have tightened since our last meeting, which is likely to weigh on inflation and growth."

— Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank (ECB monetary policy statement, October 29, 2026)

Why 6,546 is the test into the Frankfurt press conference

October 29 left the deposit facility at 2.50% after a rise of 25 basis points, and December 17 is the next date with a decision and a press conference. Lagarde said 10-year yields had risen by around 35 basis points since the September projections. The September accounts record a surveyed plateau at 2.50%. The exchange news close on November 4 was 6,518.52, already under 6,546. A related hold case is the halfway case on an ECB hold for the BEL 20, and the deposit rate versus Bank Rate is in the Bank Rate premium over the deposit rate.

A hold at 2.50% pulls the Austrian Traded Index back to 6,546 by December 17, 2026 because the September rate rise already sits inside a price index up 25.19% year to date, while financing has tightened around it. The Vienna close on November 13 was 6,654.83, which is 108.93 points above the October 16 settlement of 6,545.90. Three banks were 43.9% of the index on September 30. The firm lending rate was 3.8% in August, and loan growth to firms slowed to 4.2%. Euro-area inflation was 3.8% in September. WIFO estimates Austrian output rose 0.2% in the third quarter, with the consumer-price flash at 3.6% in October. The 6,546 figure is that settlement, rounded. The bull case of 6,849 is the midpoint back to the 52-week high of 7,043.27, and the bear case of 6,437 applies if December lifts the deposit rate.

Where a settlement retest can be the wrong scale

The 52-week low of 4,713.63 lies far beyond this settlement. A 10% move in Erste Group is worth about 1.97% on the index, and the November 9 close rose 1.98% to 6,562.46. October 23 target gaps stood at +24.5% for Erste Group, +26.6% for BAWAG, +12.6% for Raiffeisen Bank International and −9.6% for OMV.

"Ein wesentlicher Aspekt unserer positiven Anlagethese ist, dass der Konzern gemessen an den Ertrags- und Cash-Kennzahlen weiterhin attraktiv bewertet erscheint."

— Harry Goad, Analyst, Berenberg (APA via aktien-portal.at, November 13, 2026)

Goad kept a Buy rating and a €19.00 target on Wienerberger, against €16.53 on November 13, and cut earnings per share to €1.03, €1.26 and €1.76. That is how 6,849 can still be reached if construction steadies and the bank weights hold their multiples.

What would invalidate the path to 6,546

The base case to 6,546 breaks if any one of these four signals prints:

• The December 17 decision lifts the deposit facility above 2.50%. The working reference then becomes 6,437, with long yields extending the 35-basis-point rise since the September projections.
• A weekly close prints above 6,718. That is the 6,718.18 session high beside the 6,685.89 close, so the retrace from November 13 has failed.
• Euro-area inflation excluding energy prints at 2.1% or lower. September was 2.3%, up from 2.1% in August, and the path would pass to the 6,849 midpoint.
• The firm lending rate before the meeting prints below 3.8%. August left the rate at 3.8%, and a lower print would ease the financing-cost leg of the October 16 drift.

What to watch before the December press conference

November 25 is a non-monetary-policy Governing Council meeting, and the press conference on December 17 is the horizon, after day one on December 16. Lagarde listed new projections, two inflation prints, third-quarter wages, the November Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and two bank-rate rounds. The levels are 6,718.18, 6,545.90 and 7,043.27. A sticky-inflation case that keeps a hike live is the cross-check, and the market-news desk carries the path to that press conference.

TL;DR

The Austrian Traded Index closed at 6,654.83 on November 13, 2026, on the Vienna Stock Exchange print at 17:50:01. The base case takes it to 6,546 by the December 17 ECB press conference if the deposit facility stays at 2.50%. That target is the October 16 settlement of 6,545.90. The bull case is 6,849 and the bear case is 6,437. Three banks were 43.9% of the index on September 30, and euro-area inflation was 3.8% in September. A weekly close above 6,718 retires the retrace.

FAQ

What is the Austrian Traded Index, and where did it last close?

The Austrian Traded Index is the Vienna Stock Exchange price index of the 20 largest and most liquid Austrian listings, under ISIN AT0000999982, and the cash ticker is ATX. The exchange quote still showed the November 13 close of 6,654.83, down 31.06 points, or 0.46%, at 17:50:01. Year to date the index is up 25.19%, and the 52-week high on the same page is 7,043.27.

Why is the base-case target 6,546 rather than a fresh high?

The October 16 settlement is 6,545.90, and 6,546 is that print to the nearest point. The November 13 close of 6,654.83 stands 108.93 points above it after a year-to-date gain of 25.19%. The base case treats the September rise in the deposit facility, to 2.50%, as already in that gain, so a December 17 hold is the setting for a drift back to the settlement.

When does the ECB Governing Council next set the deposit rate?

The ECB calendar lists December 16, 2026 as day one of the next monetary-policy meeting in Frankfurt and December 17 as day two, followed by a press conference. That second day is the horizon for the 6,546 base case. A non-monetary-policy meeting is set for November 25. The deposit facility stands at 2.50% after the October 29 hold.

How large is the bank weight, and why does a hold matter?

On September 30 weights, Erste Group was 19.7%, BAWAG 15.2% and Raiffeisen Bank International 9.0%, a combined 43.9%. A hold at 2.50% leaves net interest income at the September setting, while the firm lending rate was 3.8% in August and loan growth to firms slowed to 4.2%. A hike on December 17 would instead open the 6,437 extension below the October settlement.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.