DXY to 103.15: sticky CPI keeps the rate hike live

The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY) reaches 103.15 by December 9, 2026 in the base case, 103.87 in the bull case and 101.10 in the bear case. The base case adds the November 10 range of 0.92, high 102.41 minus low 101.49, to the close of 102.23, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 per cent in October. Four prints below would retire the path.

Key Levels:

• Asset: DXY 102.32 at 07:26 UTC on November 11, 2026 — Yahoo Finance, ICE Futures DX-Y.NYB
• Base case target: 103.15 by December 9, 2026 — 102.23 plus 0.92 (102.41 minus 101.49)
• Bull case target: 103.87 — October 14 high 102.95 plus 0.92, if the funds range rises by 50 basis points
• Bear case target: 101.10 if December 9 leaves the range unchanged — November 4 low
• Major support: 101.49 — November 10 low
• Major resistance: 102.95 — October 14 high and 52-week high
• Invalidation level: daily close at or below 101.49

How 103.15 is measured from the CPI session

Spot is 102.32 at 07:26 UTC on November 11, 2026, on the Yahoo Finance chart for DX-Y.NYB, exchange ICE Futures. November 10 high, low and close were 102.41, 101.49 and 102.23. Adding that 0.92 range to the close gives 103.15, and adding it to the October 14 high of 102.95 gives 103.87. The November 4 low is 101.10.

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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) calendar lists December 8-9 with a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Lines are the October 28 statement, Kevin Warsh's transcript and Christopher Waller's November 10 speech. Yields are Selected Interest Rates (H.15) dated November 9, 2026, column November 6. Positioning is the Commitments of Traders (COT) futures-only report, code 098662, as of November 3. Most October 12-month CPI percentage changes stay unpublished after the appropriations lapse, the Bureau release says. The November calendar moves Veterans Day releases to November 12. The window is October 1 to November 11, 2026.

What the October CPI and the ICE tape show

The index rose 0.58 points from the November 9 close of 101.65 to the November 10 close of 102.23, and the November 11 print was 102.32.

Sources: Yahoo Finance DX-Y.NYB, 07:26 UTC, November 11, 2026; BLS October CPI, November 10, 2026; H.15 dated November 9, 2026; CFTC COT as of November 3, 2026. Window: October 1, 2026 to November 11, 2026.

The ICE US Dollar Index is the cash dollar index on ICE Futures, symbol DX-Y.NYB. The base case takes it from 102.32 at 07:26 UTC on November 11, 2026 to 103.15 by December 9, 2026. The figure 103.15 equals the November 10 close of 102.23 plus that session's range of 0.92, high 102.41 minus low 101.49. The session gained 0.58 points, or 0.57 per cent, from the November 9 close of 101.65 after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported October CPI-U up 0.4 per cent. The bull case of 103.87 adds 0.92 to the October 14 high of 102.95, the 52-week high. The bear case is the November 4 low of 101.10. A daily close at or below 101.49 retires the base case, and the horizon is the December 9 date on the FOMC calendar.

"To recap my economic outlook, economic activity is strong, the labor market is stable, but inflation is too high, well above the FOMC's 2 percent goal. This means that even if, as I expect, the monthly rate of inflation improves in October, I am leaning toward supporting an increase in our policy rate of 25 basis points at the FOMC's December meeting."

— Christopher Waller, Governor, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Federal Reserve speech, November 10, 2026)

Why a live December hike still lifts the index

Waller spoke at 4:00 am Eastern Time on November 10, before the 8:30 am print. He would still lean towards 25 basis points in December if the monthly rate improved, and core around 0.3 per cent would put 50 basis points on the table. Headline slowed from 0.6 per cent to 0.4 per cent and core was 0.3 per cent for a third month.

On November 6 the 2-year yield was 4.51 per cent, 63 basis points over the 3.88 per cent effective funds rate, in H.15 dated November 9. The October 28 statement held the range at 3-3/4 to 4 per cent, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack the two votes for a quarter-point rise. That range is the dollar leg in the USD/SEK, USD/CHF and USD/PLN notes on the forex desk.

October CPI, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on November 10, 2026, is a 0.4 per cent seasonally adjusted rise in CPI-U after 0.6 per cent in September. Core CPI, all items less food and energy, rose 0.3 per cent, matching September and August. Shelter rose 0.3 per cent and accounted for over 30 per cent of the all-items increase. Food rose 0.5 per cent and energy rose 0.7 per cent after 5.2 per cent in September. The CPI-U index stood at 337.511 and rose 0.2 per cent before seasonal adjustment. November CPI is scheduled for December 10, 2026, at 8:30 am Eastern Time, one day after the December 9 statement, so October is the last CPI in hand at the vote. Core at 0.3 per cent for three months is the inflation fact behind 103.15.

Where the hold camp can still be right

Headline slowed from 0.6 per cent to 0.4 per cent and energy from 5.2 per cent to 0.7 per cent after a majority of 10 waited on October 28. After that hold the index went from a close of 102.19 on October 28 to a low of 101.10 on November 4, down 1.09 points.

On November 3, non-commercial accounts held a net long of 14,190 contracts, 28.9 per cent of open interest of 49,091, up 69 from October 27. The commercial short book exceeded longs by 16,414, seven days before the CPI session, and the horizon is December 9.

"Energy and related prices have moved higher again in recent weeks. And our job is to ensure that relative price changes in some sectors do not broaden out across the economy and that inflation expectations remain as they are—anchored."

— Kevin Warsh, Chairman, Federal Reserve (FOMC press conference transcript, October 28, 2026)

What would invalidate the base case

The base case to 103.15 breaks if any one of these four signals prints:

• A daily close at or below 101.49. That November 10 low is the floor of the 0.92 range added to the close of 102.23.
• The December 9 statement leaves the range at 3-3/4 to 4 per cent. The October 28 hold was followed by a low of 101.10 on November 4.
• Minutes at 2:00 pm on November 18 say most participants judged a further increase inappropriate.
• H.15 shows a 2-year yield at or below 4.46 per cent after November 9. November 5 was 4.46 per cent, and November 6 was 4.51 per cent.

What to watch into the December vote

H.15 is due at 4:15 pm on November 12 and November 13. Minutes of October 27-28 follow at 2:00 pm on November 18, and the Beige Book at 2:00 pm on November 25. The FOMC meets December 8-9 with an SEP, and November CPI is at 8:30 am Eastern Time on December 10.

TL;DR

DXY reaches 103.15 by December 9, 2026 in the base case, 103.87 if a 50 basis point rise is live, and 101.10 if December 9 holds the funds range. The target adds the November 10 range of 0.92 to the close of 102.23. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported October CPI-U up 0.4 per cent and core up 0.3 per cent. A daily close at or below 101.49 retires the path. On November 6 the 2-year yield was 4.51 per cent, 63 basis points above the 3.88 per cent effective funds rate in H.15 dated November 9.

FAQ

Where is the base case, and by when?

The base case is 103.15 on the ICE US Dollar Index by December 9, 2026. The price is the November 10 close of 102.23 plus the 0.92 range on the Yahoo Finance ICE chart. From the November 11 print of 102.32, 0.83 points remain. The bull case is 103.87 and the bear case is 101.10.

What did the October CPI release show?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said October CPI-U rose 0.4 per cent, seasonally adjusted, after 0.6 per cent in September. Core CPI rose 0.3 per cent for a third month, and shelter rose 0.3 per cent. Food rose 0.5 per cent, energy rose 0.7 per cent after 5.2 per cent, and the index stood at 337.511.

Why is the bull case 103.87?

103.87 adds the November 10 range of 0.92 to the October 14 high of 102.95, the 52-week high on this ICE series. It applies if December 9 lifts the funds range by 50 basis points. Waller said core CPI around 0.3 per cent or higher would mean a 50 basis point increase should be considered, and October core was 0.3 per cent.

What price ends the base case?

A daily close at or below 101.49 ends the base case, because that print is the November 10 low under the range added to the close of 102.23. The bear case beyond it is 101.10, the November 4 low. A December 9 hold at 3-3/4 to 4 per cent, or a 2-year yield at or below 4.46 per cent, would also retire the path.

Which official dates sit ahead of the horizon?

H.15 is at 4:15 pm on November 12 and November 13. Minutes of October 27-28 are at 2:00 pm on November 18, and the Beige Book at 2:00 pm on November 25. The FOMC meets on December 8-9 with an SEP, and November CPI is at 8:30 am Eastern Time on December 10.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.