USD/PLN to 3.9800: the NBP hold still bites

USD/PLN reaches 3.9800 by November 4, 2026 in the base case, 4.0000 in the bull case and 3.8762 in the bear case, because the NBP reference rate is still 3.75% while the Table A fixing has printed a year high at 3.9542.

Table 209/A/NBP/2026 is up 9.95% from 3.5963 on January 2, and the next decision-making meeting on the NBP schedule is November 3-4. The four signals that end the base case are set out below.

Key Levels for USD/PLN, each tied to an NBP fixing or a stated condition:

• USD/PLN: 3.9542 — NBP Table A mid, October 27, 2026
• Base case target: 3.9800 by November 4, 2026 — 0.0258 above that mid
• Bull case target: 4.0000 — a 3.75% hold and an October flash at or above 4.0%
• Bear case target: 3.8762 — October 1 mid, if the flash is at or below 3.5% and November 4 opens a hike
• Major support: 3.9247 — October 23 mid
• Major resistance: 3.9542 — year high on October 27
• Invalidation level: a fixing at or below 3.8886 — October 22 mid

How the fixing, the reference rate and the flash were read

The price history is the NBP Table A dollar mid from January 2, 2026 through October 27, 2026, 209 fixings in the NBP Table A series. The policy rate is the 3.75% reference rate after the October 6-7 hold that ING recorded on October 7. Inflation is the Statistics Poland flash of September 30, set against the 2.5% target and a band of plus or minus one percentage point on NBP's monetary-policy page. Positioning stays out because a primary file was unavailable.

Related:EUR/DKK holds 7.4748 while the policy spread holds

The dollar fixing is already at the year's high

USD/PLN on the National Bank of Poland Table A convention is the mid number of zloty per one United States dollar, and the latest mid is 3.9542. That print, table 209/A/NBP/2026, effective October 27, 2026, is the highest of 209 fixings since January 2, 2026, when the mid was 3.5963, a rise of 9.95% from the first fixing of the year. The year low was 3.5045 on January 28, and the October 27 mid stands 12.83% above it. Inside October the mid went from 3.8762 on October 1 to 3.9542, a rise of 2.01%, and the sharpest leg ran from 3.8886 on October 22 to 3.9542, a gain of 0.0656 zloty, or 1.69%, across the next three fixing dates. The euro mid on the same table was 4.4056 on October 27, up from 4.3685 on October 22. The base case extends the dollar extreme by 0.0258, to 3.9800, by November 4, 2026.

Sources: NBP Table A; NBP POLONIA on October 27, 2026; Statistics Poland flash of September 30, 2026; NBP monetary-policy page. Window: January 2, 2026 to October 27, 2026.

Transport fuels on that flash rose 36.1% on the year and 9.2% on the month. The ex-post real reference rate, 3.75% minus 4.0%, sits 25 basis points below zero, and the flash sits 50 basis points above the 3.5% band edge. On September 16 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the funds range 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% by a 12–0 vote.

"On Friday, EUR/PLN tested new highs since 2023 and broke through the key 4.400 level. We have long identified the zloty as the most vulnerable currency in the region, and given its rate outperformance relative to CEE peers, there is likely further upside for EUR/PLN."

— Frantisek Taborsky, EMEA FX & FI Strategist, ING (ING THINK, October 26, 2026)

He wrote on the euro cross, and he expects the October 30 print to fall from 4.1% to 3.7% on a fuel cap, with 4.1% his starting point and the official September flash at 4.0%.

A hold still leaves room up to 3.9800

November 3-4 is the next two-day decision-making meeting on that schedule, with December 1-2 after this horizon. The horizon is November 4, when the sitting ends. The page sets a blackout of five days before a decision-making meeting and one business day after it. ING's October 7 baseline holds 3.75% and pencils two 25-basis-point hikes only in the first quarter of 2027.

The bull case at 4.0000 needs the Council to hold the reference rate at 3.75% and the October CPI flash to stay at or above 4.0%. That round number sits 0.0458 above the October 27 mid of 3.9542, and it is reachable if a fuel price cap fails to pull inflation down while the dollar leg stays bid after the FOMC statement at 2:00 pm Eastern Time on October 28. That statement is still ahead of a 09:09 UTC filing, so the September 16 range is the last completed dollar setting. A hold ING already treats as the baseline can be fully in the price, which is why 4.0000 is conditional and 3.9800, about two-fifths of the late-October jump, is the central path. The same shape is in the USD/CZK repo-rate hold and the USD/MYR post-hold drift.

That baseline can stall a year-high fixing, and an October flash near 3.7% would narrow the gap above the band before the Council sits. The bear case at 3.8762 needs a flash at or below 3.5% and a November 4 statement that opens an immediate hike.

What a patient Council leaves outside the model

An October 12 NBP notice says the Governor alone can convene Council meetings and that the Council requires the Governor's attendance. The October 12 mid was 3.9211 and the October 16 mid was 3.8827, so the notice is a risk into November 3 rather than the cause of 3.9542. The forex desk uses the same last-print rule.

"In our view, current price developments give the MPC time to refrain from raising rates for several months and to observe the impact of the energy shock on the Polish economy. Inflation has risen to around 4.0% year-on-year, but this increase is almost entirely attributable to higher fuel prices. There are no clear signs of broader-based price pressures in the economy."

— Adam Antoniak, Senior Economist, Poland, ING, with Rafal Benecki (ING THINK, October 7, 2026)

The mid still rose 1.69% from October 22 after that patient line was already public.

What would invalidate the base case

The base case to 3.9800 ends if any one of these four signals prints before or on November 4, 2026.

• An NBP Table A dollar mid at or below 3.8886. That October 22 fixing is the last mid before the jump, and a return through it ends the continuation.
• The Council raises the reference rate on November 4. A hike would reprice the path ING places in the first quarter of 2027.
• The October CPI flash at or below 3.5% year on year. That print would put inflation back inside the band around the 2.5% target.
• The FOMC on October 28 lowers the federal funds range below 3.75–4.00%. A cut at the 2:00 pm Eastern Time statement would hit the dollar leg on its own.

A fixing between 3.8886 and 3.9542, with the reference rate still at 3.75% and CPI still above 3.5%, leaves the base case intact.

What to watch into the November decision

On October 28 the FOMC calendar puts the statement at 2:00 pm Eastern Time, and the levels still use the September 16 range. October 30 can fire or spare the 3.5% trigger. November 4 brings the reference rate and that day's Table A mid, and a fixing above 3.9247 keeps the break intact.

TL;DR

USD/PLN reaches 3.9800 by November 4, 2026 in the base case, 4.0000 if the Council holds and October CPI stays at or above 4.0%, and 3.8762 if the flash falls to 3.5% or below and the statement opens an immediate hike. The NBP mid on October 27 was 3.9542, the high of 209 fixings in 2026 and 9.95% above the January 2 mid of 3.5963. The base case ends on a fixing at or below 3.8886, on a November 4 hike, or on an October flash at or below 3.5%.

FAQ

Where does the USD/PLN base case sit, and by when?

The base case is 3.9800 by November 4, 2026, the second day of the next Monetary Policy Council decision meeting. The bull case is 4.0000 and the bear case is 3.8762, the October 1 NBP mid. The latest input is the Table A mid of 3.9542 on October 27, table 209/A/NBP/2026. That 0.0258 gap is about two-fifths of the rise off the October 22 mid.

What did the reference rate do at the October meeting?

The Council left the reference rate at 3.75% on October 6-7. ING's October 7 note states that hold, and the rate board still shows 3.75% for the reference rate, 4.25% for the lombard rate and 3.25% for the deposit rate. The same note's baseline is two 25-basis-point hikes in the first quarter of 2027, to 4.25%.

Which fixing level ends the base case?

A Table A dollar mid at or below 3.8886 ends the base case. That fixing is the October 22, 2026 mid, the last print before 3.9247 on October 23 and 3.9542 on October 27. Above 3.8886 the break the base case extends is still on the tape. The October 1 mid of 3.8762 is the bear target and sits past that line.

How far is the September flash from the NBP target?

The September 30 flash put CPI at 4.0% year on year and 0.7% on the month. NBP's target is 2.5% with a band of plus or minus one percentage point, so the upper edge is 3.5%. The flash is 1.5 percentage points above the target and 50 basis points above that edge. Against the 3.75% reference rate the ex-post real rate is minus 25 basis points.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.