USD/CZK to 21.861 if the two-week repo rate is held

USD/CZK reaches 21.861 by November 5, 2026 in the base case, 22.009 in the bull case, and 21.522 in the bear case. The base case is a retest of the October 7 year-high Czech National Bank (CNB) fixing if the two-week repo rate stays at 3.75%.

File number 205, dated October 23, 2026, prints USD/CZK at 21.741, up from 21.369 on September 23, a rise of 0.372 koruna, or 1.74%, in the CNB 2026 year file. The repo rate has stood at 3.75% since June 19, 2026, and the next monetary-policy meeting on the Bank's calendar is November 5, with the decision at 2.30 p.m. Those three targets are arithmetic on the published fixings.

Key Levels:

• USD/CZK: 21.741 — CNB fixing number 205 on October 23, 2026
• Base case target: 21.861 by November 5, 2026 — the October 7 year-high fixing
• Bull case target: 22.009 — that high plus the 0.148 rebound from 21.593
• Bear case target: 21.522 if the repo rate is raised — the September 30, 2026 fixing
• Major support: 21.593 — October 21, 2026 local low
• Major resistance: 21.861 — highest dollar row of 2026
• Invalidation level: a fixing below 21.593 through November 5, 2026

How the dollar fixing and the repo rate were measured

The price is the CNB dollar fixing in the daily file and the 2026 year history, opened on October 26, 2026, with the latest row still October 23 because the Bank declares the rate at around 2.30 p.m. Changes use the rows from January 2, 2026 through that date. The policy rate is 3.75% from June 19, 2026 on the repo-rate history. The horizon is November 5, 2026 on the 2026 meeting list and the calendar entry. Inflation is the October 13 comment set beside the Summer 2026 forecast of August 6. The dollar leg is federal funds effective in the H.15 release of October 23, 2026. Meeting dates come from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) calendar.

Related:USD/HKD holds 7.8436 inside the peg band

What the October fixing and the September prices show

Sources: CNB 2026 year file, September 23 reference and October 7 high; repo history, May 9, 2025 at 3.50% and the 2.75% discount rate from June 18, 2026; October 13, 2026 comment, August CPI 1.9% and core 3%, Summer CPI 2.2%, core 2.9% and fuel 20.1%. The 2.8% cell is monetary-policy-relevant inflation against a Summer 2.4%. H.15 of October 23, 2026 shows 3.88% on October 16 and October 22, and 3.75 minus 3.88 is the paired figure. Window: January 2, 2026 to October 23, 2026.

The USD/CZK fixing is the Czech National Bank's daily price of one United States dollar in Czech koruna, declared on working days at around 2.30 p.m. The latest row, October 23, 2026, number 205, is 21.741. September 23 in the 2026 file is 21.369, a gap of 0.372 koruna, or 1.74%, and the January 2 row of 20.611 makes the year-to-date change 1.130 koruna, or 5.48%. The high is 21.861 on October 7 and the low is 20.291 on January 28, with a later local low of 21.593 on October 21 and a September 30 print of 21.522. The base case returns to 21.861, the bull case adds the 0.148 rebound from 21.593 to 21.741 and reaches 22.009, and the bear case returns to 21.522. Each of those figures is a fixing the Bank has already published.

"We expect inflation to remain at similar levels of between 2% and 3% for the rest of the year. At the beginning of next year, it is very likely to rise temporarily above 3%."

— Jakub Matějů, Deputy Executive Director, Monetary Department, Czech National Bank (Czech National Bank).

Why a repo-rate hold maps USD/CZK back to 21.861

A hold at 3.75% is the base case for USD/CZK because that rate is already in force and the Summer 2026 forecast still describes short-term market rates as broadly stable. The forecast page, published on August 6, 2026 from data as of July 24, puts 2026 three-month PRIBOR at 3.7% beside the 3.75% repo rate and a 2026 inflation average of 2.0%. Deputy Governor Jan Frait's interview of October 22 records analyst talk of a quarter-point step to 4%, while the quotation below carries his caution on 100 basis points and on a 50 basis point step. Left at 3.75%, the repo rate sits 13 basis points under the 3.88% federal funds effective rate on the October 22 column of the H.15 release dated October 23, 2026. The 21.861 high printed on October 7 while 3.75% was already the last row on the rate history.

Fuel at 37.5% against the Summer column of 20.1%, in the October 13, 2026 comment, is the case for a higher repo rate. Frait calls the arguments for raising the benchmark relatively strong, and a rate above 3.75% on November 5 is the bear path back to 21.522. A strong koruna is already anti-inflationary in that interview, so the base case stops at 21.861. The dollar-franc rate-gap case and the dollar-krone spread case on the forex desk tie a target to a named policy rate.

Where a rate-to-fixing map has failed before

On June 18, 2026 the Board raised the two-week repo rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%, with the discount rate at 2.75% and the Lombard rate at 4.75% from June 19, as the decision page states. The fixing was 21.078 that day and 21.741 on October 23, or 3.15% higher, so a tighter repo rate has already coincided with a higher dollar fixing. A November hike would still need a currency response before 21.522 was a fair bear print. The Summer exchange-rate section says the koruna will be broadly stable, and the FOMC meets on October 27-28 before the CNB decision.

"I don’t see reasons for 100 basis points, at least for now. If the economy remains in a favorable mode, stays relatively strong and resilient, and at the same time global inflation pressures persist, even 50 basis points would be a little bit abrupt for me."

— Jan Frait, Deputy Governor, Czech National Bank (Czech National Bank, Bloomberg interview dated October 22, 2026).

What would invalidate the 21.861 retest

The base case of a 21.861 retest on a 3.75% repo rate breaks if any one of these four observations arrives.

• The Bank Board sets the two-week repo rate above 3.75% on November 5, 2026. A higher setting is the bear path towards 21.522.
• A CNB dollar fixing after October 23 and on or before November 5 prints below 21.593. That break of the October 21 low retires the retest.
• A CNB dollar fixing before the decision prints above 22.009. The bull case, the year high plus the 0.148 rebound, would already be on the tape.
• Federal funds effective on the H.15 release covering October 27-28 prints at 3.63% or below, or at 4.13% or above. Either print is 0.25 percentage point from the 3.88% run through October 22.

What to watch before the Bank Board speaks

The FOMC calendar places a meeting on October 27-28, 2026, and the H.15 series to read afterwards printed 3.88% on October 16, October 19, October 20, October 21, and October 22. Each CNB fixing, declared at around 2.30 p.m., confirms or breaks 21.593, 21.861, and 22.009. On November 5 the calendar entry puts the decision at 2.30 p.m. and the press conference at 3.00 p.m., with the Autumn 2026 Monetary Policy Report and a new forecast, and the minutes usually follow eight days later. The Nordic hike-news path shows how fast a policy headline can reach a fixing, and the row that settles USD/CZK remains the CNB dollar print.

TL;DR

USD/CZK reaches 21.861 by November 5, 2026 if the CNB leaves the two-week repo rate at 3.75%, in force since June 19. The latest fixing is 21.741 on October 23, and 21.861 is the October 7 year high. The bull case is 22.009 and the bear case is 21.522 if the rate is raised. September fuel prices rose 37.5% year on year, against 20.1% in the Summer 2026 column, on the CNB comment of October 13, 2026. A fixing below 21.593 retires the base case.

FAQ

What does the USD/CZK fixing measure?

USD/CZK on the Czech National Bank fixing is the number of Czech koruna per one United States dollar, declared on working days at around 2.30 p.m. File number 205, dated October 23, 2026, sets that price at 21.741, the same row as the 2026 year history. From the January 2 print of 20.611 the year-to-date rise is 5.48%. A higher fixing means more koruna per dollar.

Why is 21.861 the base-case level?

The base case takes USD/CZK back to 21.861, the highest dollar row in the CNB 2026 year file, printed on October 7. October 23 is 21.741, a gap of 0.120 koruna, and the repo rate that day was 3.75%, in force since June 19, 2026. November 5 is the next date on the Bank's list, and a hold leaves the setting that coincided with that high.

What repo-rate decision sits behind the base case?

The base case needs the two-week repo rate to stay at 3.75% on November 5, 2026. On June 18 the Board raised it by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%, with the discount rate at 2.75% and the Lombard rate at 4.75% from June 19. The Summer forecast puts 2026 three-month PRIBOR at 3.7%. A setting above 3.75% is the bear case at 21.522.

Which prints would show the base case has failed?

Four observations retire the USD/CZK base case. A fixing below 21.593 after October 23 and on or before November 5 breaks the October 21 low. A fixing above 22.009 before the decision means the bull case has printed. A repo rate above 3.75% on November 5 ends the hold. Effective federal funds at 3.63% or below, or at 4.13% or above, is 0.25 percentage point from 3.88%.

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