EUR/DKK holds 7.4748 while the policy spread holds

The euro against the Danish krone (EUR/DKK) holds 7.4748 by December 17, 2026 in the base case, 7.4902 in the bull case and 7.46038 in the bear case, provided Danmarks Nationalbank keeps the current-account rate 40 basis points under the European Central Bank (ECB) deposit facility rate.

Danmarks Nationalbank's euro fixing for October 23, 2026 priced 100 euro at 747.48 kroner, or 7.4748, against the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) central rate of 746.038 kroner per 100 euro. The gap is 0.193 per cent, beside a current-account rate of 2.10 per cent and a deposit facility rate of 2.50 per cent. Press conferences on October 29 and December 17 pin the base case on a repeat of 7.4748.

Key Levels

• Asset: EUR/DKK at 7.4748 — Danmarks Nationalbank fixing, October 23, 2026 (747.48 kroner per 100 euro)
• Base case target: 7.4748 by December 17, 2026 — 40-basis-point gap unchanged
• Bull case target: 7.4902 — central rate times 1.004 if an ECB increase is unmatched
• Bear case target: 7.46038 — central rate if that gap narrows
• Major support: 7.46038 — ERM II central rate on the questions page
• Major resistance: 7.62824 — weak-side limit of the +/- 2.25 per cent band
• Invalidation level: fixing above 7.5350 — central rate times 1.01

How the fixing, the band and the spread are measured

Fixings are Danmarks Nationalbank's daily file and euro RSS for October 19 to October 23, 2026, read on October 24. The exchange-rate page prices 100 currency units in kroner. The central rate and +/- 2.25 per cent band are from the fixed-exchange-rate questions. The September 10 and June 11 releases, with the rate XML, put the current-account rate at 2.10 from September 11. Series FM.D.U2.EUR.4F.KR.DFR.LEV printed 2.50 on October 24, matching the September 10 decision effective September 16. Reserves are the October 2 liquidity release. The ECB calendar lists October 29 and December 17, 2026, and June 11 is on the press-conference list. A gap is the fixing minus 746.038, divided by 746.038.

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Five fixings sit 0.19 per cent above the central rate

The five fixings to October 23 moved EUR/DKK from 7.4746 to 7.4748. Each print sat 0.191 to 0.193 per cent above the central rate, or 8.6 per cent of the 16.786 kroner from 746.038 to the weak-side limit at 762.824.

Sources: Danmarks Nationalbank daily currency rates and euro RSS, read October 24, 2026; central rate from the fixed-exchange-rate questions page. Gap rounded to three decimal places. Time window: October 19 to October 23, 2026.

The euro against the Danish krone (EUR/DKK) is the rate Denmark keeps fixed against the euro inside the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II). Danmarks Nationalbank states a central rate of 746.038 kroner per 100 euro and a narrower band of +/- 2.25 per cent, agreed with the European Central Bank, running from 762.824 to 729.252 kroner per 100 euro. In per-euro terms those levels are 7.46038, 7.62824 and 7.29252. A higher EUR/DKK print means more kroner per euro and a weaker krone. The October 23, 2026 fixing of 747.48 kroner per 100 euro, or 7.4748, stands 0.193 per cent above the central rate, inside the 2.25 per cent ceiling. The bank says that since the late 1990s it has kept the krone much closer to the central rate than the formal band requires.

September's accounts show little market leaning behind that print. The foreign-exchange reserve fell by kr. 0.4 billion to kr. 693.2 billion, September intervention is a dash, and January-to-September net foreign-exchange purchases were kr. -6.3 billion. On October 1 the Eurosystem Repo Facility for Central Banks (EUREP) borrowing ceiling was set at €50 billion, equal to kr. 373.7 billion at the October 23 fixing.

"We welcome that the ECB has broadened access to the EUREP to include more central banks. Gaining access to EUREP further strengthens our robust liquidity position and management of Danmarks Nationalbank’s foreign exchange reserves."

— Signe Krogstrup, Governor, Danmarks Nationalbank (Danmarks Nationalbank)

Why an unchanged 40-basis-point gap pins EUR/DKK

The policy spread in EUR/DKK is the gap between Danmarks Nationalbank's current-account rate and the ECB deposit facility rate. Since September 11, 2026 the current-account rate, the certificates of deposit rate and the discount rate have been 2.10 per cent, after a 0.25 percentage point rise announced on September 10. The ECB set the deposit facility rate at 2.50 per cent and the main refinancing rate at 2.65 per cent from September 16, 2026. Subtracting 2.10 from 2.50 leaves a gap of 40 basis points, with the Danish rate lower. The September 10 press release tied the Danish rise to the ECB rise and said the spread against the euro area would remain unchanged. An equal move by both banks would leave the fixing near 7.4748, and an unmatched ECB rise is the path toward 7.4902.

Bull case 7.4902 is the central rate times 1.004, and it needs the deposit facility rate to rise while the current-account rate stays at 2.10 per cent. Bear case 7.46038 needs a larger Danish increase, because net foreign-exchange sales of kr. 6.3 billion through September left the fixing 1.442 kroner per 100 euro above parity. That deposit-facility rate also anchors the CAC 40 deposit-rate case and the euro-Canadian dollar rate gap.

The path away from 7.4748 is the inflation split in the September 23 projection: Danish inflation of 1.7 per cent in 2026 against ECB staff inflation of 3.0 per cent. A further ECB increase that Nationalbank hesitated to match would be the bull case, while June 11 and September 10 each described a full match.

Where a quiet peg model fails when the calendar gaps

The 40-basis-point width applies after both effective dates. From September 11 to September 15 the current-account rate was already 2.10 per cent while the deposit facility rate was still 2.25 per cent, a 15-basis-point gap until September 16. In June the current-account rate moved to 1.85 per cent on June 12 and the deposit facility rate moved from 2.00 per cent to 2.25 per cent on June 17. A repeat around October 29 would open that shorter gap again. The bank's account of the peg records intervention of kr. 275 billion in January and February 2015, against a 2026 net of kr. -6.3 billion through September. Another managed reference rate is the euro-leu reference path.

"The outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks to the upside for inflation and to the downside for economic growth."

— Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank (ECB monetary policy statement, September 10, 2026)

What would invalidate the 7.4748 base case

A fixing of 7.4748 on December 17, 2026, with the policy gap still 40 basis points, breaks if any one of these four signals appears:

• A euro fixing above 7.5350. That is 7.46038 times 1.01, a 1.00 per cent deviation against 0.193 per cent on October 23.
• A Danish adjustment that sets the gap at a width different from 40 basis points once both effective dates have passed. A wider discount points toward 7.4902, and a narrower discount points toward 7.46038.
• Intervention in one month whose absolute value exceeds kr. 6.3 billion. That is the whole January-to-September net, beside a dash for September, so the fixing would be under active defence.
• A euro fixing at or below 7.29252. That strong-side limit, 729.252 kroner per 100 euro, lies beyond the bear case at 7.46038.

What to watch through the December press conference

The ECB calendar puts the next monetary-policy press conference on October 29, 2026, and the following one on December 17, 2026, the horizon for 7.4748. Rate changes are announced by press release outside foreign-exchange market hours, and the June 11 and September 10 increases each fell on an ECB decision day and took effect the next day. An October 29 release and the October 30 fixing are the first test of the 40-basis-point gap, with October intervention due in the next liquidity release after the October 2 figures. Further pair work sits on the forex desk.

TL;DR

EUR/DKK holds 7.4748 by December 17, 2026 in the base case, 7.4902 in the bull case and 7.46038 in the bear case. The base case needs Danmarks Nationalbank to keep the current-account rate 40 basis points under the ECB deposit facility rate of 2.50 per cent, the gap left by the matched increases in June and September. The October 23 fixing was 747.48 kroner per 100 euro, with the end-September reserve at kr. 693.2 billion. A fixing above 7.5350 invalidates the base case.

FAQ

What is the central rate for EUR/DKK?

The central rate for the euro against the Danish krone is 746.038 kroner per 100 euro, or 7.46038 per euro, inside ERM II. The questions page says that rate has been unchanged since January 1987. The October 23, 2026 fixing was 747.48 kroner per 100 euro, which is 1.442 kroner above parity.

How wide is Denmark's fluctuation band against the euro?

Denmark's operative band is +/- 2.25 per cent around 746.038 kroner per 100 euro, tighter than the standard ERM II band of +/- 15 per cent. The edges are 762.824 and 729.252 kroner per 100 euro, and both central banks are obliged to defend them. The October 23 fixing deviates by 0.193 per cent.

What is the gap between Danish policy rates and the ECB?

Since September 11, 2026 the current-account rate has been 2.10 per cent, and since September 16 the ECB deposit facility rate has been 2.50 per cent, a gap of 40 basis points with the Danish rate lower. The September 10 Danish release said the spread against the euro area would remain unchanged.

Which ECB dates matter for the krone from here?

The ECB calendar sets a monetary-policy press conference for October 29, 2026 in Frankfurt, after a meeting opening on October 28, and another for December 17, 2026, which is the horizon for 7.4748. Rate changes come by press release outside market hours. The increases of June 11 and September 10 each fell on the ECB decision day and took effect the next day.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.