AUD/SGD and the cash-rate gap the slope leaves open

AUD/SGD reaches 0.8924 by December 8, 2026 in the base case, 0.8953 in the bull case and 0.8713 in the bear case.

The base case retraces part of the fall from the November 5 Reserve Bank fixing of 0.8953 to 0.8834 on November 9, back toward the November 4 fixing of 0.8924. It rests on a 4.85% cash-rate target, effective November 4, against a Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) slope the Monetary Authority of Singapore maintained on October 14.

Key Levels:

• Asset: Australian dollar/Singapore dollar (AUD/SGD) at 0.8834 on November 9, 2026 — Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) exchange-rate table, retrieved about 07:11 UTC.
• Base case target: 0.8924 by December 8, 2026 — the November 4 RBA print.
• Bull case target: 0.8953 — the November 5 print, if December 8 raises the cash-rate target or keeps the upside inflation skew.
• Bear case target: 0.8713 — the November 6 print of 0.8833 minus the 0.0120 drop from 0.8953.
• Major support: 0.8833 — the November 6 print, low of the November 4 to November 9 fixings.
• Major resistance: 0.8953 — the November 5 print, high of that window.
• Invalidation level: a close below 0.8713 — measured extension of that 0.0120 drop.

How the fixings and the two calendars were read

The cross is the Reserve Bank 4pm fixing, retrieved about 07:11 UTC on November 9, 2026, when the Singapore-dollar row was 0.8834. The November 5 and November 6 prints, 0.8953 and 0.8833, match the row labelled Singapore dollar, which also shows 0.8924 on November 4. The 4.85% target, effective November 4, and the December 8 update at 2.30 pm, are on the cash-rate overview. The historical interest-rate table shows 4.60% from September 30 to November 3. December 8 is the second day in Media Release 2025-02 of February 10, 2025. The slope is the October 14 statement. The advance release calendar lists the January 2027 statement with a latest date of January 29, 2027, and says those dates can change. The 0.8713 level equals 0.8833 minus the 0.0120 difference between the November 5 and November 6 prints.

Related:AUD/NZD slips to 1.2331 on a narrower cash-rate gap

What the cash rate, the slope and the cross printed

AUD/SGD is the Singapore-dollar row on the Reserve Bank exchange-rate table, in units of foreign currency per Australian dollar. On November 9, 2026 it was 0.8834, against 0.8953 on November 5 and 0.8833 on November 6, a give-back of 0.0119. The cash-rate target was 4.85% from November 4, up 25 basis points from 4.60%. On October 14 the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintained the rate of appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) band, left the width and the centre where they were, and said the S$NEER had strengthened modestly inside the upper half since a very slight July increase. Core inflation was 2.1% in July–August, from 1.5% in the second quarter, and the 2026 core forecast was narrowed to 1.5–2.0%. The target rose on November 4 and the cross fell afterward: an overnight rate target on one side, an appreciating band on the other.

Sources: RBA exchange-rate table, November 9, 2026; cash-rate overview; interest-rate table; November 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy; MAS statement, October 14, 2026; parliamentary reply, October 7, 2026.

"Raising interest rates today is necessary to slow the economy and return inflation to target."

— Michele Bullock, Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (media conference, November 3, 2026)

Why the cash-rate gap still has to pass through the slope

The cash-rate gap on AUD/SGD is the distance between Australia’s overnight target and Singapore’s domestic benchmark, which the slope leaves open because MAS sets the S$NEER path rather than a cash rate. On October 7, 2026, with the target at 4.60%, Deputy Chairman Chee Hong Tat said three-month compounded Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) was around 1.2%, below a 10-year average of 1.5%, a gap on the order of 340 basis points against the target then in force. The November 4 rise to 4.85% added 25 basis points after October 14 had kept the slope, width and centre as they were. The November Statement on Monetary Policy, finalised on October 28, expects headline and underlying inflation above 3% until end-2027, and pre-meeting pricing implied around one and a half further increases by the middle of next year. That mix is the base for 0.8924 by December 8.

The opposing reading is that an appreciating band can keep the Singapore dollar firm while the cash-rate gap stays wide, and the November 6 drop could start a move toward 0.8713. The base case takes the other side: the slope was maintained, the 2026 core forecast was narrowed to 1.5–2.0% from 1.5–2.5%, and inflation is still projected above 3% until end-2027. The same slope setting is the subject of the S$NEER slope case on the euro cross, a different cash-rate gap frames the Australian dollar versus the New Zealand dollar, and sterling’s policy gap against the Singapore dollar is in the Bank of England policy-gap piece.

Where a cash-rate gap fails to map onto the cross

A higher cash rate and a lower AUD/SGD can print in the same week, which is what followed November 4. The target rose to 4.85% effective that day, and the cross still fell 0.0120, from 0.8953 on November 5 to 0.8833 on November 6. The Reserve Bank trade-weighted index (TWI) was 64.0 on November 9, so the bilateral rate can move while the slope stays where MAS left it. The bull case stops at 0.8953, the high of the four sourced prints from November 4 to November 9.

"Three-month Compounded SORA, an important benchmark for domestic loans, is around 1.2%, below its 10-year average of 1.5%."

— Chee Hong Tat, Minister for National Development and Deputy Chairman, Monetary Authority of Singapore (parliamentary reply, October 7, 2026)

What would invalidate the rebound to 0.8924

The base case to 0.8924 by December 8, 2026 breaks if any one of these four signals fires:

• An RBA 4pm Singapore-dollar rate at or under 0.8713. That would complete the 0.0120 extension from November 5 to November 6.
• A December 8 release that sets the cash-rate target under 4.85%. A lower target would remove the 25 basis point rise that took effect on November 4.
• A December 8 release that describes inflation risks as skewed to the downside. That would break with the November Overview, which still has the risks skewed to the upside.
• An MAS statement before December 8 that increases the S$NEER slope. A steeper slope would tighten the Singapore leg through the exchange rate inside the horizon. The scheduled review is the January 2027 statement.

What the December decision and the January statement will show

The horizon is 2.30 pm Sydney time on December 8, 2026, the cash-rate overview’s next update and the second day in Media Release 2025-02. Before that, MAS publishes October consumer prices on November 23. The next slope statement has a latest date of January 29, 2027. The price case stops on December 8, the next fixed date on which the cash-rate leg can change. A hold at 4.85% leaves the leg where November 4 set it, and a further 25 basis point rise is the condition on the bull case of 0.8953.

TL;DR

AUD/SGD was 0.8834 on the Reserve Bank table for November 9, 2026. The base case is 0.8924 by the December 8 cash-rate decision, the bull case is 0.8953 and the bear case is 0.8713. The mechanism is a 4.85% cash-rate target against an S$NEER slope MAS maintained on October 14. Headline inflation was 3.9% over the year to the September quarter, on the November Statement on Monetary Policy. A close under 0.8713, a lower target on December 8, a downside skew, or a steeper slope before then, would end the rebound.

FAQ

What is the cash-rate gap the slope leaves open?

Australia sets a cash-rate target, 4.85% from November 4, 2026, after 4.60% from September 30 to November 3. Singapore sets the slope, width and centre of the S$NEER band. On October 14 MAS maintained the appreciation rate and left width and centre where they were. On October 7, with the target at 4.60%, three-month compounded SORA was around 1.2%, a gap on the order of 340 basis points.

What is the base case for AUD/SGD and which date does it use?

The base case is 0.8924 by December 8, 2026, the November 4 fixing and the next cash-rate decision at 2.30 pm. The bull case is 0.8953 if the Board raises the target again or keeps the upside inflation skew. The bear case is 0.8713, the November 6 print of 0.8833 minus the 0.0120 fall from 0.8953. Spot is 0.8834 on November 9, and December 8 is the decision day in Media Release 2025-02.

Which observable signals would invalidate the rebound?

An RBA fixing at or under 0.8713 would complete the November 5 to November 6 extension. A December 8 target under 4.85% would remove the rate leg. A December release that puts inflation risks on the downside, against the November upside skew, would weaken the wide-gap case. A steeper S$NEER slope before December 8 would tighten the Singapore leg. Any one of those four ends the rebound.

When is the next scheduled review of the S$NEER slope?

MAS publishes statements in January, April, July and October. The advance release calendar lists the January 2027 statement with a latest date of January 29, 2027, and says the dates can change. The price horizon is earlier: December 8, 2026, the next fixed date for the cash-rate side of the gap. The slope stands as the October 14 statement left it until that January review.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.