CHF/NOK to 11.3514 as the policy gap favours the krone

CHF/NOK reaches 11.3514 by December 17, 2026 in the base case, 11.5708 in the bull case and 11.1901 in the bear case. The base case halves the rebound off the October 28 low, on a 450 basis-point gap between Norges Bank at 4.50% and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) at 0%.

Spot was 11.5126 on the European Central Bank (ECB) euro reference rates for November 6, 2026, usually updated at around 16:00 CET, from 10.5260 kroner per euro divided by 0.9143 francs per euro. Norges Bank held at 4.50% on November 5. The SNB next assesses policy on December 10, and Norges Bank's next decision, with new forecasts, is December 17. Four signals below would break the path to 11.3514.

Key Levels:

• CHF/NOK: 11.5126 — ECB, November 6, 2026, 10.5260 divided by 0.9143
• Base case target: 11.3514 by December 17, 2026 — midpoint of 11.5126 and 11.1901
• Bull case target: 11.5708 — 11.5126 times one plus 4.50% times 41/365
• Bear case target: 11.1901 — October 28 low, if Norges Bank hikes
• Major support: 11.2574 — November 3 cross, from 10.3185 and 0.9166
• Major resistance: 11.5708 — the same policy-rate forward
• Invalidation level: daily ECB cross above 11.6731 — October 2 high, from 10.8315 and 0.9279

How the CHF/NOK levels are built from two ECB legs

CHF/NOK is the ECB Norwegian krone reference rate divided by the Swiss franc rate, rather than a price either central bank prints alone. The spot is November 6, 2026. History from September 24 through November 6 is the ECB 90-day reference file, 32 sessions, each cross rounded half up to four decimals. The ECB publishes the rates for information only. Norges Bank's policy rate is 4.50%, effective November 6 after the hold decided on November 4, following a hike from 4.25% that took effect on September 25. The SNB rate is 0%, unchanged on September 24. The forward applies those policy rates on an ACT/365 count of the 41 days to December 17, a policy-rate construct rather than an interbank forward, and no positioning figure is used because the cross has no Commodity Futures Trading Commission futures contract.

Related:EUR/GBP: the Bank Rate premium over the deposit rate

The cross has already given back the late-October krone extreme

CHF/NOK is the number of Norwegian kroner one Swiss franc buys, and the working spot for that price is 11.5126. The figure divides the ECB krone reference rate on November 6, 2026, 10.5260, by the franc rate, 0.9143, and rounds half up to four decimal places. From the September 24 cross of 11.4672, built from 10.7895 and 0.9409, the price fell to 11.1901 on October 28, from 10.3475 and 0.9247, then rebounded by 2.88% to the November 6 print. Over that stretch EUR/CHF fell 2.83% and EUR/NOK fell 2.44%, so the franc outpaced the krone against the euro and the cross ended 0.0454 higher. The policy-rate gap was 450 basis points, and Statistics Norway put inflation at 3.4% in the year to September, with the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) at 3.0%.

Sources: ECB euro reference rates, September 24 to November 6, 2026; SNB, September 24, 2026; Norges Bank. The September 24 cell is 4.25%, the rate still in force that day.

"Inflation is too high. It will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time, and we are prepared to raise the policy rate if needed to bring inflation down to target within a reasonable time horizon."

— Ida Wolden Bache, Governor, Norges Bank (Norges Bank press release, November 5, 2026)

Why 450 basis points map to 11.3514 rather than a new low

The base-case target of 11.3514 is the midpoint of 11.5126 and 11.1901, since 11.35135 rounds half up to 11.3514. December 17, 2026 is the horizon, when Norges Bank publishes Monetary Policy Report 4/26, after the December 10 SNB assessment. The halfway reversal is the base case because the gap is still 450 basis points and the September 24 monetary policy assessment assumes a 0% SNB rate. The bull case of 11.5708 multiplies 11.5126 by one plus 4.50% times 41 divided by 365, and the bear case retests 11.1901.

September's forecast keeps the Norwegian rate near the current level for a period before a decline, with inflation at 2% in 2029. The November 4 meeting, which brought no fresh forecast, said the krone is stronger than assumed. The SNB forecast is 0.7% for 2026 and 0.8% for 2027 and 2028 on a 0% rate, as in the SNB hold case for Swiss equities. October Swiss inflation was 1.5% in the Federal Statistical Office release of November 3, inside the 0% to 2% range.

The opposing reading is that the rebound is already the message. The Norges Bank policy-rate page shows 4.50% and a December 17 decision, and November said the krone is stronger than assumed, yet the November 6 fixing gave back 1.27%. The October 22 summary records a trade-weighted franc fall of around 3% since June, so a renewed safe-haven bid points towards 11.6731.

Where a midpoint of two ECB prints can mislead

The midpoint only splits a printed range across 32 ECB sessions, and one fixing has already moved the cross by more than the distance left to 11.3514. The forward uses policy rates rather than deposit rates and leaves out the cross-currency basis and the bid-offer.

Dearer energy, the Middle East risk in the September assessment, is why Norwegian inflation at 3.4% sits above CPI-ATE at 3.0%, the bear case at 11.1901. Against an August trimmed mean (TM15) of 0.6%, a 1.5% Swiss print that runs beyond an oil spike can firm the franc through the forward. The franc's test against the euro, the sterling gap against a 0% Swiss policy rate and the krone's rate premium versus the euro each use a different ratio.

"Since our last assessment, the Swiss franc has depreciated by around 3% on a trade-weighted basis. This depreciation was in line with the widening of interest rate differentials between the major currency areas and Switzerland."

— Martin Schlegel, Chairman of the Governing Board, Swiss National Bank (SNB introductory remarks, September 24, 2026)

The base case takes back only half the rebound and reserves 11.1901 for a hike. The September rate decision records 2.1% of the labour force registered as fully unemployed in August.

What would invalidate the path to 11.3514

The base case down to 11.3514 breaks if any one of these four signals prints:

• An ECB CHF/NOK cross above 11.6731. That October 2 high, from 10.8315 and 0.9279, tops the window since September 24, and a fixing above it ends the halfway-retracement rule.
• The December 17 policy-rate path opens below 4.50% at once, rather than staying close to the current level for a period. An immediate decline would remove the yield argument for a stronger krone.
• Norges Bank cuts the policy rate on December 17. A cut would narrow the 450 basis-point gap from the Norwegian side at the decision itself, which a later drift in the forecast would leave for another meeting.
• The SNB lifts the policy rate above 0% on December 10. A Swiss hike would compress the gap from the other side and give the franc a reason to firm against the krone.

The two decisions that sit inside the horizon

December 10 is the SNB assessment, press release at 09:30 Swiss time and news conference at 10:00, on the SNB event schedule. The test is whether the policy rate and the forecast stay at 0%, and whether October 22's line, that an increased willingness to intervene is no longer necessary, still holds after 1.5% inflation. December 17 is Norges Bank at 10:00 with Monetary Policy Report 4/26. The levels on the cross are 11.2574, 11.3514, 11.5708 and 11.6731.

TL;DR

CHF/NOK was 11.5126 on the ECB reference rates for November 6, 2026. The base case is 11.3514 by December 17, the midpoint of that fixing and the October 28 low of 11.1901. The bull case is 11.5708 and the bear case retests 11.1901. Statistics Norway put Norwegian inflation at 3.4% in September, against an SNB forecast of 0.7% for 2026 with the policy rate at 0%. An ECB fixing above 11.6731, a December 17 cut, or an SNB rate above 0% on December 10 would break the path.

FAQ

What spot is used for CHF/NOK, and who published it?

The spot is 11.5126, from the November 6, 2026 ECB rates of 10.5260 Norwegian kroner per euro and 0.9143 Swiss francs per euro, divided and rounded half up to four decimals. The ECB usually updates those rates at around 16:00 CET and publishes them for information rather than as transaction prices. The ratio can be rebuilt from the ECB file on its own.

Why does the base case sit below the November 6 fixing?

The base case takes back half of the rebound from 11.1901 on October 28 to 11.5126 on November 6, and that midpoint is 11.3514. A 450 basis-point gap, Norges Bank at 4.50% against an SNB rate of 0%, with a committee still prepared to raise the Norwegian rate, is why a retracement is the base case. It stops halfway because the krone is already stronger than Norges Bank assumed.

What did Norges Bank decide in November 2026?

At its meeting on November 4, published on November 5 at 10:00, the committee kept the policy rate at 4.50% from November 6, with overnight lending at 5.50% and the reserve rate at 3.50%. The meeting brought no fresh forecast. The next decision, with Monetary Policy Report 4/26, is on December 17 at 10:00, and Governor Ida Wolden Bache said the committee is prepared to raise the rate if inflation warrants it.

When does the Swiss National Bank next set the policy rate?

The next assessment is on December 10, 2026. The policy rate is 0%, unchanged on September 24, and the forecast of 0.7% for 2026 and 0.8% for 2027 and 2028 assumes that rate holds. The October 22 summary said an increased willingness to intervene is no longer necessary. On November 3 the Federal Statistical Office said October prices rose 1.5% on the year.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.