Swiss Market Index to 14,669.51: the SNB hold case

The Swiss Market Index reaches 14,669.51 by December 10, 2026 in the base case, 14,813.27 in the bull case and 13,906.12 in the bear case. The base case is a retest of the year high if the Swiss National Bank (SNB) leaves the policy rate at 0%.

The official close on October 23, 2026 was 14,462.36, sitting 207.15 points, or 1.43%, under the August 11 year high of 14,669.51, after a session loss of 85.61 points, or 0.59%, on the SIX delayed index feed. The September 24, 2026 assessment left the SNB policy rate at 0%, and the conditional inflation forecast assumes that same rate across its horizon.

Key Levels:

• Swiss Market Index: 14,462.36 close, October 23, 2026, SIX delayed index feed
• Base case target: 14,669.51 by December 10, 2026 — SIX year high of August 11, 2026
• Bull case target: 14,813.27 — year high plus the October 23 range of 143.76 points
• Bear case target: 13,906.12 — close divided by 1.04, reversing the 4% month field
• Major support: 14,408.96 — October 23 session low, SIX feed
• Major resistance: 14,669.51 — August 11, 2026 year high, SIX feed
• Invalidation level: daily close below 14,408.96 — loss of the October 23 low

Where the October 23 close and the December assessment come from

The levels come from the SIX delayed index feed for ISIN CH0009980894, read on October 25, 2026. Market date is October 23, 2026, and the feed states a 15-minute delay. The SIX reference record shows 20 constituents, a launch date of June 30, 1988 and market capitalisation of 1,523,104,235,662.96 Swiss francs. SIX's description puts coverage at approximately 75% of Swiss equity market capitalisation, a base of 1,500 points on June 30, 1988, and a quarterly weight cap of 18% with a 20% ceiling. Rates come from the SNB assessment of September 24, 2026. The horizon is the SNB time schedule for December 10, 2026, at 09:30 and 10:00 Swiss local time.

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What the October 23 tape says about the year high

The Swiss Market Index is the price series of the 20 largest and most liquid equities in the Swiss Performance Index (SPI), and SIX states that it covers approximately 75% of Swiss equity market capitalisation. On the October 23, 2026 market date the official close was 14,462.36, down 85.61 points, or 0.59%, from a previous close of 14,547.97, with a session high of 14,552.72 and a session low of 14,408.96 on the SIX delayed index feed. The same feed places the year high at 14,669.51 on August 11, 2026 and the year low at 12,053.51 on March 23, 2026. From that low the close has travelled 2,408.85 points, which is 92.08% of the 2,616.00-point low-to-high range. Week, month, year-to-date and one-year performance fields on that record read 0.49%, 4%, 9.01% and 15.07%. Those performance fields are the input to the implied levels in the table, which stand apart from official historical closes.

Sources: SIX delayed index feed, market date October 23, 2026, read October 25, 2026. Implied levels equal 14,462.36 divided by one plus the printed performance. Time window: March 23, 2026 to October 23, 2026.

"Moreover, our monetary policy and the recent depreciation of the Swiss franc are having a supportive effect. For 2026 as a whole, we currently expect growth of between 1.5% and 2%."

— Petra Tschudin, member of the Governing Board, Swiss National Bank (SNB introductory remarks, September 24, 2026)

Why a 0% SNB rate maps to a retest of 14,669.51

A retest of 14,669.51 by December 10, 2026 is the base case because that date is the next Swiss National Bank monetary policy assessment, and the September 24, 2026 conditional inflation forecast assumes an SNB policy rate of 0% over the entire forecast horizon. The press release left the policy rate unchanged at 0%, kept the sight-deposit discount above the threshold at 0.25 percentage points, and put average annual inflation at 0.7% for 2026, 0.8% for 2027 and 0.8% for 2028. Petra Tschudin, member of the Governing Board, said monetary policy and "the recent depreciation of the Swiss franc are having a supportive effect," with 2026 GDP growth between 1.5% and 2%. The bull case at 14,813.27 adds the October 23 high-to-low range of 143.76 points to the year high. The bear case at 13,906.12 divides the close by 1.04, reversing the 4% month-ago field.

The point arithmetic argues the other way. Upside to the year high is 207.15 points, or 1.43%, while the bear case sits 556.24 points, or 3.85%, under the close. Martin Schlegel, chairman of the Governing Board, said the franc "has depreciated by around 3% on a trade-weighted basis" since the June assessment, and that the Bank is "willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary." The base case still stands because the forecast assumes a 0% rate and treats the weaker franc as support for growth.

Where a price-only, 20-name framework runs thin

Dividends sit outside this price-return series, ISIN CH0009980894, and single-name weights sit outside the extract, even with a quarterly cap of 18% and a 20% ceiling. Petra Tschudin said that "an unusually robust performance in the chemicals/pharmaceuticals industry meant that GDP overstated the underlying growth momentum", and that capacity utilisation "was below average, especially in manufacturing". The rate path rests on the September 24, 2026 assessment and a forecast that assumes a 0% policy rate. Membership is reviewed once a year in September, and that lineup sits outside this price record.

"The baseline scenario remains subject to high uncertainty, above all because of the situation in the Middle East. For example, energy prices could turn out to be significantly higher than expected. This would increase inflation further and significantly curb economic growth."

— Antoine Martin, vice chairman of the Governing Board, Swiss National Bank (SNB introductory remarks, September 24, 2026)

What would break the path to the year high

The base case to 14,669.51 breaks if any one of these four signals fires:

• A daily close below 14,408.96. That October 23 low is the floor of the 143.76-point range used for the bull case.
• The December 10, 2026 assessment sets the SNB policy rate above 0%. The September forecast assumes 0% across the horizon, so a higher rate removes the hold under the base case.
• The December 10 statement says the SNB has acted in the foreign exchange market to firm the franc. That would challenge the depreciation Petra Tschudin linked to growth support.
• The December 10 conditional forecast assumes a policy rate other than 0% over its horizon. That retires the 0% path used on September 24, 2026.

What is on the calendar before the December assessment

The SNB time schedule sets the next monetary policy assessment for December 10, 2026, with the press release at 09:30 and the news conference at 10:00, Swiss local time. That is the horizon for 14,669.51, 14,813.27 and 13,906.12. The franc side of the date is framed in the AUD/CHF path into the December 10 assessment, with the franc-cap test on EUR/CHF as the longer backdrop. Continental cash indices sit on a separate clock, including the Euro Stoxx 50 live-hike case.

TL;DR

The Swiss Market Index base case is 14,669.51 by the SNB assessment on December 10, 2026, with a bull case at 14,813.27 and a bear case at 13,906.12. The October 23, 2026 close was 14,462.36 on the SIX delayed index feed, 207.15 points under the August 11 year high. The path uses the September 24 hold at a 0% policy rate, a forecast that assumes 0% over its horizon, and a trade-weighted franc depreciation of around 3% since June, the figure Martin Schlegel gave. A daily close below 14,408.96 breaks the base case, as does a December 10 rate above 0%.

Questions desks are asking about the Swiss Market Index

Where does the Swiss Market Index base case stand into the next SNB assessment?

The base case for the Swiss Market Index is 14,669.51 by December 10, 2026, the next SNB assessment on the Bank's time schedule. That level is the August 11, 2026 year high on the SIX feed. The bull case is 14,813.27 and the bear case is 13,906.12, from an October 23 close of 14,462.36. It depends on the 0% policy rate from September 24, 2026 holding.

Which SIX print anchors the Swiss Market Index levels used here?

The anchor is the official close of 14,462.36 on October 23, 2026 from the SIX delayed index feed for ISIN CH0009980894. The same record shows a previous close of 14,547.97, a session high of 14,552.72 and a session low of 14,408.96. The year high is 14,669.51 on August 11, 2026 and the year low is 12,053.51 on March 23, 2026. Week, month, year-to-date and one-year fields print 0.49%, 4%, 9.01% and 15.07%.

What policy rate does the September SNB forecast assume through the horizon?

The September 24, 2026 conditional inflation forecast assumes an SNB policy rate of 0% over the entire horizon. On that path average annual inflation is 0.7% for 2026, 0.8% for 2027 and 0.8% for 2028. The press release left the policy rate at 0% and the sight-deposit discount at 0.25 percentage points. Inflation rose from 0.6% in May to 0.8% in August.

Which daily close would break the base case before December 10, 2026?

A daily close below 14,408.96 would break the base case. That is the October 23, 2026 session low on the SIX feed, 53.40 points under the close of 14,462.36. The bull case adds the 143.76-point session range to the year high to reach 14,813.27. A December 10 policy rate above 0% would break the base case on the rate channel as well.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.