WIG20 slips to 4,199.79 by the November 4 decision

WIG20 returns to 4,199.79 by November 4, 2026 in the base case, to 4,267.00 in the bull case and to 4,136.69 in the bear case, because the October 21 official close is already being given back and the Monetary Policy Council decides on the second day of its November 3–4 meeting.

The spot in this note is 4,267.00, the level on the GPW Benchmark board at 17:15 for the October 21, 2026 session, up 1.60% from the October 20 close of 4,199.79. On the morning of October 22 the English factsheet, last updated at 10:38 and headed 22-10-2026, showed an opening of 4,246.87 and a last print of 4,214.97, down 1.22%. That print is not a close. The rest of the note maps the path into the November 4 decision and the four observations that would break it.

Key Levels:

• Asset: WIG20 at 4,267.00 — GPW Benchmark board, 17:15 publication for the October 21, 2026 session, up 1.60%
• Base case target: 4,199.79 by November 4, 2026 — the October 20, 2026 official close on the GPW Benchmark WIG20 card
• Bull case target: 4,267.00 if the November 4 decision leaves the reference rate at 3.75%
• Bear case target: 4,136.69 — October 20 session minimum on the same card
• Major support: 4,199.79 — October 20 official close
• Major resistance: 4,267.00 — October 21 official close
• Invalidation level: a close above 4,267.00 — above the October 21 GPW Benchmark publication

How this WIG20 call was measured

The instrument is the WIG20, the price index of 20 of the largest and most liquid names on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Main Market. The English factsheet, opened on October 22, 2026, says calculation started on April 16, 1994, the base value was 1,000, dividends are excluded, and no more than five companies from one sector may sit in it. The spot is the 17:15 value on the GPW Benchmark board for October 21, not the cell labelled closing while October 22 was open. GPW's homepage still showed the session open at 10:48. The horizon is November 4, 2026, the second day on NBP's English schedule. The October communique was not opened.

Related:FTSE MIB to 49,857 by the 29 October press conference

What the last two closes and this morning's print show

WIG20 is the Warsaw Stock Exchange price index of 20 large and liquid Main Market companies, and the official close in this call is 4,267.00. GPW Benchmark's board for the completed October 21, 2026 session published that level at 17:15, up 1.60% from the October 20 close of 4,199.79 on the administrator's card. The gap between those two closes is 67.21 points. The October 20 card also shows a session minimum of 4,136.69, which is the bear case, and a session maximum of 4,222.67. On the morning of October 22 the English factsheet, last updated at 10:38 and headed 22-10-2026, showed an opening of 4,246.87 and a last value of 4,214.97, down 1.22%. That figure is an intraday print. The base case is a return to 4,199.79 by November 4, 2026, and the morning print is not the close.

Sources: GPW Benchmark board at 17:15 on October 21, 2026; WIG20 card for October 20, 2026; English factsheet at 10:38 on October 22, 2026. Paired levels are the prior close, the session minimum, the opening and the WIG20 close. The 10:38 row is not an official close.

On the October 20 portfolio, PKO BP was 14.244% and Pekao was 8.174%, with PKN Orlen at 14.020%. Two banks of that size can move the index. The October 20 close is the session Mikołaj Sobierajski described.

"Zejście WIG20 poniżej 4 200 pkt. pogarsza krótkoterminowy obraz techniczny indeksu, choć o trwałości korekty będzie można mówić dopiero po kolejnych sesjach."

— Mikołaj Sobierajski, analyst, XTB (XYZ)

Why 4,199.79 runs through the November 4 decision

The horizon for this WIG20 call is November 4, 2026, the second day of the Monetary Policy Council's decision meeting. Narodowy Bank Polski's English schedule lists November as a two-day meeting on November 3–4, and the Polish harmonogram lists those dates as a Tuesday and a Wednesday. The Council dates its notes on the second day: the September note is dated September 9, 2026 for the meeting of September 8–9, and the June note is dated June 2, 2026 for the meeting of June 1–2. The reference rate in the September 9 communique was 3.75%. The NBP homepage still showed 3.75% on October 16. Three-month WIBOR fixed at 3.90% on October 21, 15 basis points above that reference rate, and one-year WIBOR fixed at 4.02%. POLSTR was 3.614% on October 20. The base case remains a fade to 4,199.79.

Asked whether a November increase was possible if the projections looked worrying, Adam Glapiński answered "tak, chociaż tego nie przewiduję". The bull case is that answer, with the reference rate still at 3.75% and the index back at 4,267.00. The base case only needs the October 21 close given back. The same policy-date frame appears in the Bovespa call into November 4, the FTSE MIB note into October 29 and the AEX hold case.

What this framework leaves out

This is a close-to-close comparison plus one policy date. It does not model earnings or the zloty. Sobierajski's caveat stands: a break of 4,200 worsens the short-term picture, and durability takes later sessions. The next session closed at 4,267.00, so the October 20 break did not last one day. The September communique put the August CPI flash at 3.4% year on year, from 3.0% in July. A September headline CPI is not used here, because it was not in that communique.

"Ja jako prezes NBP mam wszystkie dane na bieżąco. Na to (podwyżkę stóp w listopadzie - PAP) się na razie nie zanosi, ale tego nie przesądzam. Ostatecznie nasi analitycy z Departamentu Analiz i Badań Ekonomicznych po przestudiowaniu wyników modelowych i naniesieniu popraw eksperckich, przedstawią nam projekcje na najbliższe kwartały i na średni okres i Rada podejmie decyzję."

— Adam Glapiński, Governor of Narodowy Bank Polski and chair of the Monetary Policy Council (wGospodarce, citing PAP)

What would invalidate this call

The base case of 4,199.79 by November 4, 2026 breaks if any one of these four observations prints:

• A GPW Benchmark close above 4,267.00. That close is the invalidation, so a print above the October 21 publication ends the fade.
• The November 4 communique sets the reference rate below 3.75%. The path is an equity give-back into an uncertain meeting, not a cut.
• Three-month WIBOR fixes at or below 3.75% before November 4. The October 21 fixing was 3.90%, so a print back at the reference rate removes the 15 basis point gap.
• The October 22 official close finishes at or above 4,267.00. A 17:15 print back at 4,267.00, after 4,214.97 at 10:38, would make that dip noise.

What to watch before November 4

The next official number is today's close. The session was still open at 10:48 on October 22, so the spot stays 4,267.00 until the 17:15 publication. Then watch the November 3–4 meeting and the communique on the second day. Three-month WIBOR, fixed at 11:00 and published at 23:00 on GPW Benchmark's timetable, is the check on the gap to 3.75%. The October 20 minimum of 4,136.69 is the bear case only if the fade extends that far.

TL;DR

WIG20 is called back to 4,199.79 by November 4, 2026, the second day of the meeting on Narodowy Bank Polski's schedule. The spot is 4,267.00, up 1.60%, from the GPW Benchmark 17:15 publication for October 21, 67.21 points above the October 20 close of 4,199.79. The bull case is a return to 4,267.00 if the reference rate stays at 3.75%. The bear case is the October 20 minimum of 4,136.69. A 10:38 print of 4,214.97 on October 22 is not a close. The call fails on a close above 4,267.00, on a November 4 reference rate below 3.75%, or on three-month WIBOR at or below 3.75%. The October 21 fixing was 3.90%.

FAQ

What close is the WIG20 spot in this call?

The spot is 4,267.00, the WIG20 value on the GPW Benchmark board at 17:15 for the October 21, 2026 session, up 1.60%. The same board showed WIG at 160,445.78, up 1.35%, matching the exchange news of that session. The English factsheet opened on October 22 was headed 22-10-2026 and carried a last print of 4,214.97. That cell is the live value during an open session. It is not the official close, and it is not the spot used here.

Why is the horizon November 4, 2026 rather than November 3?

Narodowy Bank Polski's English schedule and the Polish harmonogram both list a two-day decision meeting on November 3–4, 2026. The Council's information notes are dated on the second day. The September note is dated September 9, 2026 for the meeting of September 8–9, and the June note is dated June 2, 2026 for the meeting of June 1–2. November 4 follows that convention. NBP says it will announce any change to the dates.

What would prove this WIG20 call wrong?

A GPW Benchmark close above 4,267.00 would end it, because the call is a fade from the October 21 close and that level is the invalidation. A November 4 communique that sets the reference rate below 3.75% would also end it, because the path is not written for a cut. So would a three-month WIBOR fixing at or below 3.75% before November 4. The October 21 fixing was 3.90%, 15 basis points above the reference rate on the NBP homepage.

Does the 10:38 print on October 22 change the target?

No. At 10:38 the factsheet showed an opening of 4,246.87, a minimum of 4,214.29, a maximum of 4,246.87 and a last value of 4,214.97, down 1.22%. GPW's homepage at 10:48 still described the session as open. The base target stays 4,199.79, the October 20 close, and the bear target stays 4,136.69, that session's minimum. The morning print shows only that 4,267.00 was not being held in early trade. The official close is the later 17:15 publication.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.