FCOJ to 142.00 cents by the October 23 stocks print

November 2026 frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) on ICE Futures U.S. settles at 142.00 cents per pound by October 23, 2026 in the base case, 158.00 cents in the bull case and 130.00 cents in the bear case. NASS Cold Storage, released September 25, 2026, put August 31 orange-juice concentrate at 501,044 thousand pounds, 171 per cent of a year earlier. The note below ties that stock to the October 23 settlement and names the four prints that kill the call.

Key Levels:

• Asset: FCOJ-A November 2026, 147.75 cents — ICE Futures quote, 1:59 p.m. EDT, October 20, 2026
• Base case target: 142.00 cents by the October 23, 2026 settlement — 5.75 cents under the last
• Bull case target: 158.00 cents — 149.00 prior close plus 9.00 cents, inside one 10-cent day
• Bear case target: 130.00 cents — 17.75 cents under the last, inside two 10-cent sessions
• Major support: 130.00 cents — 52-week low is 116.50 cents
• Major resistance: 149.00 cents, then 158.00 cents
• Invalidation level: daily settlement above 158.00 cents — stock case is then wrong

How the levels were set

The spot is the delayed quote for OJX26 at 1:59 p.m. EDT on October 20, 2026. The contract page states 15,000 pounds and a daily limit from 10 to 30 cents. The calendar lists last trade on November 9, 2026 and first notice on November 2, 2026. Stocks are the Cold Storage report of September 25, 2026, the crop is the October 9 citrus forecast, and positioning is the CFTC report of October 13, 2026. The horizon is 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time on October 23 on the NASS calendar. WASDE-676 has no orange-juice table. The band of 137.55 to 145.45 cents omits 147.75.

Related:Feeder cattle to 343.925 cents by November 20, 2026

August stocks at 171 per cent

Frozen concentrated orange juice, the FCOJ-A contract on ICE Futures U.S., is quoted in cents per pound of orange-juice solids, and each contract covers 15,000 pounds. The November 2026 month, symbol OJX26, last printed 147.75 cents at 1:59 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on October 20, 2026, 1.25 cents under a 149.00 prior close. This call's base case is a 142.00 cent settlement on October 23, 2026, the bull case is 158.00 cents and the bear case is 130.00 cents. Under that base case sits the National Agricultural Statistics Service Cold Storage report released September 25, 2026: orange-juice concentrate on August 31 was 501,044 thousand pounds, 171 per cent of the 293,158 thousand pounds on August 31, 2025, and 106 per cent of the 472,187 thousand pounds on July 31, 2026. A daily settlement above 158.00 cents invalidates the call. November's last trade on the ICE calendar is November 9, 2026, so October 23 falls inside this month.

The gallon line, 50,631, matches 501,044 divided by 9.896.

Sources: ICE Futures delayed quote, 1:59 p.m. EDT, October 20, 2026; NASS Cold Storage, September 25, 2026; USDA citrus forecast, October 9, 2026; CFTC COT, October 13, 2026. Window: August 31, 2025 to October 20, 2026.

"The devastating freezes last winter were a speed bump on our road to recovery. But there are many signs that point to strong performance in the years ahead. Growers are reporting healthier trees and improved fruit quality, and we’re seeing higher production per acre. As newly planted acreage matures, we’re hopeful the data will reflect the optimism we feel in the groves this season."

— Matt Joyner, executive vice president and chief executive officer, Florida Citrus Mutual (Citrus Industry Magazine, October 9, 2026)

Why 142.00 cents is not a crop squeeze

On October 9, 2026 USDA put Florida all oranges at 10.0 million boxes, down 23 per cent from 12.95 million. Non-Valencias are 3.00 million, down 37 per cent, and Valencias are 7.00 million, down 14 per cent. United States all oranges are 61.70 million against 63.54 million, and California is 50.50 million against 49.50 million.

The base-case settlement of 142.00 cents on October 23 is the price going into the stock release, not the price after it. ICE lists New York FCOJ-A hours as 8:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m., and the NASS calendar places Cold Storage at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time on October 23, 2026, so the number cannot trade that session. From the October 20 last of 147.75 cents, 142.00 is 5.75 cents lower, inside one day at the 10-cent floor of the daily limit on the ICE contract page. The bull case of 158.00 cents is the 149.00 prior close plus 9.00 cents, still inside that 10-cent limit from the prior close. The bear case of 130.00 cents is 17.75 cents under the last print, which two sessions at a 10-cent limit can reach. None of the three targets needs the 30-cent ceiling. The call is a drift into a known release, not a bet on a limit move.

On October 13, managed money was short 3,291 contracts and long 2,118, a net short of 1,173, or 17.595 million pounds, 33.3 per cent of 9,897 in open interest. The net short shrank by 68 from October 6. The zinc note on visible stocks uses the same stock logic.

Where the stock model goes wrong

August 31 stocks are being used as the description of an October 23 settlement that prints before September 30 stocks are public. If September is already in the price, 142.00 cents can be too low on the day even when the later figure is heavy. No settlement file was on the ICE data page opened for this note, and the delayed quote's range contradicts its last, so the levels use only the last, the prior close and the 52-week band.

The October 9 forecast does not say what share of Florida or California boxes is crushed, so treating 10.0 million Florida boxes as the whole juice supply overstates the scarcity. A smaller crop against a full warehouse usually shows up when the pile is drawn. South Atlantic warehouses held 470,046 thousand pounds of that August 31 total, which is why a print under 470,000 thousand pounds is the stock invalidation.

"The tenacity and grit of Florida citrus growers cannot be overstated. The faith of a farmer is nothing to mess around with. In partnership with our best-in-class research community, Florida citrus remains a significant economic driver in the state of Florida and well-positioned for future investment."

— Shannon Shepp, executive director, Florida Department of Citrus (Citrus Industry Magazine, October 9, 2026)

What would invalidate this call

The base case of 142.00 cents on the October 23 settlement breaks if any one of these four signals prints. Each one is a published number, and a grove narrative does not qualify.

• A daily settlement above 158.00 cents on or before October 23, 2026. That is the invalidation level. The tape would already have reached the bull case.
• A daily settlement below 130.00 cents before October 23. The bear case would already have printed, so 142.00 would be too high.
• The next COT report after October 13, 2026 shows managed money net long. The base case uses a net short of 1,173 contracts. A flip to net long removes that leg.
• October 23 Cold Storage prints orange-juice concentrate under 470,000 thousand pounds. The release is at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time, after the 2:00 p.m. close, so it cannot change that day's settlement. It would break the stock case from October 26.

What to watch into the November expiry

The October NASS calendar sets Cold Storage for October 23 at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The live-cattle call into that October 23 window is a different market. Orange-juice concentrate is set against the August 31 print of 501,044 thousand pounds. Under 470,000 thousand pounds is the fourth invalidation signal.

November last trade is November 9, 2026, and first notice is November 2. The November NASS calendar puts the next Cold Storage on November 24, 2026, after this month stops. The next citrus forecast is January 12, 2027. WASDE lists November 10 at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The feeder-cattle call against a later release follows that calendar rule.

TL;DR

November FCOJ-A last printed 147.75 cents per pound at 1:59 p.m. EDT on October 20, 2026. The base case is a settlement at 142.00 cents on October 23, with 158.00 cents bull and 130.00 cents bear. NASS put August 31 orange-juice concentrate at 501,044 thousand pounds, 171 per cent of a year earlier, in Cold Storage released September 25, 2026. A daily settlement above 158.00 cents kills the call. The stock print is at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time, after the 2:00 p.m. close.

FAQ

What is the FCOJ base case?

The base case is a November 2026 FCOJ-A settlement of 142.00 cents on October 23, 2026. The bull case is 158.00 cents and the bear case is 130.00 cents. The NASS release at 3:00 p.m. sits after the 2:00 p.m. close. A close above 158.00 cents on or before October 23 invalidates the base case.

Where does the 147.75 cent spot come from?

It is the delayed quote for Orange Juice Nov 26, symbol OJX26, on ICE Futures at 1:59 p.m. EDT on October 20, 2026. The prior close is 149.00 cents and the change is minus 1.25 cents. The quote is delayed by 10 minutes and is not an official ICE settlement file.

Why do August stocks outweigh the Florida crop?

The October 9 forecast is public. Florida all oranges are 10.0 million boxes, against 12.95 million last season, a 23 per cent cut. August 31 stocks of 501,044 thousand pounds were 171 per cent of a year earlier. The crop cut is why the base case gives back only 5.75 cents.

Does November WASDE reset the orange-juice balance?

WASDE-676, released October 9, 2026, has no orange-juice table. The WASDE calendar lists November 10, 2026 at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Until that table reappears, the inventory print is NASS Cold Storage. November FCOJ-A stops on November 9, before the November 24 release. The next citrus forecast is January 12, 2027.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.