LME zinc to $3,550 by November 20 as stocks hit highs

LME zinc reaches $3,550 a tonne by November 20, 2026 in the base case, $4,000 in the bull case and $3,349 in the bear case, because registered stock is at a 2026 high while cash metal is still $51 above the three-month price.

LME zinc, the London Metal Exchange refined-zinc contract, settled at $3,811 a tonne on October 12, 2026, against a three-month price of $3,760 and stock of 132,850 tonnes, on Westmetall's table read October 13, 2026. The cash premium has narrowed from $217 on August 27 to $51. The first-half refined surplus was 120,000 tonnes, on the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) release of August 26, 2026.

Key Levels:

• LME zinc: $3,811 cash on October 12, 2026 — Westmetall table of the exchange official settlement, read October 13, 2026
• Base case target: $3,550 by November 20, 2026 — the July 15, 2026 three-month settlement
• Bull case target: $4,000 — the September 2, 2026 cash settlement, if stock falls under 100,000 tonnes
• Bear case target: $3,349 — the May 1, 2026 cash settlement, if cash trades below the three-month price
• Major support: $3,553.50 — July 15, 2026 cash settlement, same table
• Major resistance: $3,954 — September 30, 2026 cash settlement
• Invalidation level: a Friday official cash settlement above $4,060 — the September 25, 2026 cash settlement

Where the LME zinc figures come from

Prices and stocks are the London Metal Exchange official cash settlement, three-month price and registered stock, republished by Westmetall and read on October 13, 2026. The October 13 settlement was not on the table. The window is January 2, 2026 to October 12, 2026. The exchange site blocked a direct read, so no live quote is taken from the exchange zinc contract page. Balance data are the ILZSG preliminary release of August 26, 2026. Trade flows are Reuters columns carried by Mining Weekly on July 20 and October 6. LME zinc has no weekly public report like US Commitments of Traders (COT) data, unlike ESMA's split of the EU commodity position report.

Related:Bovespa to 204,302.33 by November 4: record-high fade

Cash is still $51 rich with stocks at a 2026 high

LME zinc is the London Metal Exchange contract for refined zinc, settled in US dollars per tonne. On October 12, 2026 the official cash settlement was $3,811 and the three-month settlement was $3,760, a premium of $51, with registered stock at 132,850 tonnes, on Westmetall's table of exchange official figures read on October 13, 2026. The low was 86,525 tonnes on August 18, a rise of 46,325 tonnes, or 53.6%. The cash high on the same table is $4,186 on September 9, so October 12 is $375, or 9.0%, below it. The premium was $217 on August 27 and $150 on September 9. On January 2, cash at $3,106 was $24.50 under the three-month price. The base case is $3,550, the July 15 three-month settlement, when cash was $3,553.50, the spread was $3.50 and stock was 112,450 tonnes.

Sources: Westmetall datatable of LME zinc cash-settlement, three-month and stock, collected October 13, 2026. Window: January 2, 2026 to October 12, 2026. Spreads equal cash minus three-month.

October's month-to-date average cash price is $3,805, against $4,019.70 in September, and average stock is up from 114,103 tonnes to 127,106 tonnes (Westmetall monthly averages). An August 17 note, Zinc to $4,100 by the fourth quarter, set a marker the September 9 print of $4,186 traded through.

"If the production for steel falls, that is a primordial demand driver for zinc."

— Tom Price, analyst, Panmure Liberum (Reuters, via Mining Weekly, July 20, 2026)

Chinese metal is what the curve has not finished pricing

A refined-zinc surplus means reported supply of refined metal exceeded reported use over a stated window. The ILZSG release of August 26, 2026 put that gap at 120,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026, with reported inventories up 92,000 tonnes. Mine output fell 2.6%, on lower output at Antamina, Garpenberg and Red Dog, the end-2025 closure of Lady Loretta, and only a partial offset from Kipushi and Aljustrel. Refined output still rose 1.3% because China rose 5.9%, while output outside China fell 3.4%. Use rose 0.6%. China's concentrate imports rose 8.3% to 1,324,000 tonnes, and net refined imports were 39,000 tonnes, down 141,000 tonnes from the first half of 2025. The surplus is refined metal rather than ore, which is why the London curve can stay backwardated while the global book is long.

Reuters, carried by Mining Weekly on October 6, reported Chinese exports of 40,668 tons in August, the second-highest month in almost 20 years on World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) data, and a net export of 4,388 tons in eight months. Hong Kong, Singapore and Kaohsiung had taken 35,000, 21,250 and 16,725 tons since mid-August. Stock of 126,975 tons in that column matches October 5 on Westmetall, and October 12 stock was 132,850 tonnes.

The $3,100 fourth-quarter figure Reuters tied to Tom Price on July 20 is not this base case. Visible stock was also the argument of the July 17 copper inventory-glut case. If exports stop, the premium can widen without a mine restart. That widening is the bull case.

A flat July curve is not a full model of Budel

July 15 was a $3.50 spread with 112,450 tonnes in stock, before the later rise to 132,850 tonnes. On August 27 the premium was still $217 with stock at 97,875 tonnes, so the stock total alone did not set the spread. Reuters said on July 20 that BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, looked for a 34,000-ton full-year surplus and a price near $3,000, while Jonathan Leng, Wood Mackenzie's research director for zinc markets, looked for about $3,350 by end-2026, demand growth of 0.9% and an 80,000-ton deficit. The ILZSG first-half surplus of 120,000 tonnes already exceeds BMI's full-year figure. Leng's price sits near the $3,349 bear case, but a deficit and that surplus cannot both be the balance until Lisbon prints a newer one.

"is losing money every year, and the conditions for next year look particularly difficult."

— Guido Janssen, chief executive, Nyrstar (Reuters, via Mining Weekly, October 6, 2026)

What would invalidate this LME zinc call

The base case, a cash settlement at or below $3,550 on or before November 20, 2026, is off if any one of four signals prints. A later dip through $3,550 does not revive it. The print has to be on a Westmetall row or in an ILZSG note.

• A Friday official cash settlement above $4,060. That is the September 25 print. Regaining it would mean the stock build has not broken the tight regime.
• Registered stock back under 99,125 tonnes. That is the September 1 print. A draw through it would mean the autumn refill has reversed.
• A cash premium wider than $150 while stock is still rising. September 9 was a $150 premium with stock at 115,675 tonnes. Wider, on higher stock, is re-tightening.
• A published ILZSG summary from October 14 to 16 that shows a full-year 2026 refined deficit. Silence is not the signal. Only a published deficit removes the 120,000-tonne first-half surplus.

The Lisbon session and the prints that follow

The ILZSG meets on October 14 to 16, 2026, in Lisbon, with updated 2026 forecasts due (ILZSG meetings page). On October 13 the public press PDF was still the August 26 release (ILZSG press release, August 26, 2026). Next, test stock against 132,850 tonnes and the premium against $51 and against zero. Nyrstar's review of Budel had no published outcome in the sources read here. November 20, 2026 is a Friday. The bull case needs stock under 100,000 tonnes, near the 100,525 tonnes on September 2, when cash settled at $4,000. The bear case needs the spread to turn negative.

TL;DR

LME zinc cash settled at $3,811 a tonne on October 12, 2026, with stock at 132,850 tonnes and cash still $51 over the three-month price. The base case is $3,550 by November 20, the July 15 three-month settlement. The bear case is $3,349 if the spread turns negative. The ILZSG counted a 120,000-tonne refined surplus in the first half. The call ends on a Friday settlement above $4,060, on stock under 99,125 tonnes, on a premium wider than $150 while stock rises, or on a published full-year deficit from Lisbon.

FAQ

What is the LME zinc cash price?

LME zinc cash is the London Metal Exchange official settlement for refined zinc, in US dollars per tonne. The latest Westmetall row, read on October 13, 2026, is October 12: cash $3,811, three-month $3,760 and stock 132,850 tonnes. Cash is $375 under the September 9 high of $4,186 and $705 above the January 2 print of $3,106.

Why is the curve still backwardated if stocks are rising?

Backwardation means cash settles above the three-month price. On October 12 the gap was $51. Stock rose from 86,525 tonnes on August 18 to 132,850 tonnes on October 12. Reuters reported Chinese exports into Hong Kong, Singapore and Kaohsiung on October 6. The curve has narrowed and has not become a contango. That remaining premium is the part of the surplus this call treats as unpriced.

What would invalidate the move to $3,550?

The base case is a cash settlement at or below $3,550 on or before November 20, 2026. It fails on a Friday settlement above $4,060, on stock back under 99,125 tonnes, on a premium wider than $150 while stock is still rising, or on a published ILZSG full-year deficit from the October 14 to 16 Lisbon session. A later settlement at $3,550 does not reopen the call.

What did the ILZSG report on the zinc balance?

On August 26, 2026 the ILZSG put the first-half refined surplus at 120,000 tonnes, with reported inventories up 92,000 tonnes. Mine output fell 2.6%. Refined output rose 1.3%, with China up 5.9% and the rest of the world down 3.4%. Use rose 0.6%. Those are first-half figures. The updated full-year view is due in Lisbon on October 14 to 16.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.