IBEX 35 to 19,232.1 ahead of the October 29 ECB call

IBEX 35 reaches 19,232.1 by October 29, 2026 in the base case, 19,419.7 in the bull case and 18,625.7 in the bear case. The base case is a 23.6% retracement of the drop from the August 11 close to the October 8 close, into a European Central Bank (ECB) press conference that has not pre-committed to another rate rise.

The repair is shallow, and it is not a return to the August high. Bolsas y Mercados Españoles (BME) recorded an IBEX 35 close of 19,033.1 on October 9, 2026, 104.2 points above the October 8 close of 18,928.9 and 5.84% below the August 11 closing high of 20,213.6. Putting 23.6% of that 1,284.7-point decline back onto the October 8 close, rounded to one decimal, is 19,232.1.

Key Levels:

• IBEX 35: 19,033.1 at the October 9, 2026 close — BME Historical Indices Prices, ISIN ES0SI0000005, retrieved October 12, 2026
• Base case target: 19,232.1 by October 29, 2026 — October 8 close of 18,928.9 plus 23.6% of the decline from the August 11 close of 20,213.6
• Bull case target: 19,419.7 — 38.2% of the same closing range, if a December hike is pushed aside
• Bear case target: 18,625.7 — the October 8 close minus that same 23.6% slice, if the deposit facility is raised on October 29
• Major support: 18,928.9 — the October 8, 2026 closing low
• Major resistance: 20,213.6 — the August 11, 2026 closing high
• Invalidation level: a daily close below 18,821.9 — the October 8 intraday low

How the 19,232.1 level is calculated

The spot is the last close on the BME Historical Indices Prices feed for ISIN ES0SI0000005, pulled October 12, 2026: 19,033.1 on October 9. The IBEX 35 history page is the public front. October 10 and October 11 were the weekend, and no later session was in the file. Closes run from December 31, 2025 to October 9, 2026, including banks (ISIN ES0S00000901) and energy (ES0S00000919). Table percentages are calculated from those closes. A September 25 row duplicated September 24, so it is not a swing.

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What the BME closes show from the August high

The IBEX 35 base case of 19,232.1 is a partial repair of a measured decline, not a new regime for Spanish equities. BME's close on December 31, 2025 was 17,307.8, so the October 9 close of 19,033.1 is still 9.97% higher than year-end. That same print is 5.84% below the August 11 closing high of 20,213.6. October 9 rose 104.2 points, or 0.55%, from the October 8 close of 18,928.9, and the session low equalled the close. The base case sits 199.0 points, or 1.05%, above the last print. It does not require a revisit of 20,213.6, and it does not require a low under 18,821.9. The bull print of 19,419.7 is 38.2% of the same closing range, and the bear print of 18,625.7 mirrors the 23.6% slice below the October 8 close. Banco de España recorded a separate 3.3% IBEX 35 rise between its May 21 and September 24 cut-offs, a window that ends before this October drawdown.

Sources: BME Historical Indices Prices, ISINs ES0SI0000005, ES0S00000901 and ES0S00000919, retrieved October 12, 2026. Changes are calculated from these closes.

IBEX 35 Bancos fell from 2,241.2 on September 3 to 2,045.6 on October 9, down 8.73%. Its October 8 close was 2,037.4. Energy closed at 2,445.0 that day, above August 11. The index repair can finish while banks stay heavy, or fail if they break 2,037.4.

"And I can assure you that we are not taking a view as to which direction we go at our next meeting."

— Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, press conference in Berlin (ECB monetary policy statement, September 10, 2026)

Why the October 29 press conference caps the bounce

The October 29, 2026 press conference caps the IBEX 35 repair because the ECB has refused to pick the next step in advance. The Governing Council calendar lists a monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt on October 28 and October 29, with the press conference on day two, and the next one on December 16 and December 17. On September 10 the Council raised the three key rates by 25 basis points. The decision set the deposit facility, main refinancing and marginal lending facility at 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% from September 16. Staff projections put headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, and growth at 0.9%, 1.4% and 1.5%. The statement says the Council is not pre-committing to a rate path. That is why 19,232.1, not 20,213.6, is the base case.

CaixaBank Research, in its note for October 2 to October 9, said markets were pricing an October hold and a December deposit rate of 2.75%, near a 90% probability, plus 3.25% by the end of 2027 with more than a 70% probability. A hold with December still live fits 19,232.1. Pushing December out fits 19,419.7. A hike on the day fits 18,625.7. Banco de España's October 9 projections, cut off on October 2, put GDP at 2.6% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, harmonised inflation at 3.9% and 3.7%, and the September flash at 5.0%. Spanish ten-year yields rose 55 basis points from May 21 to September 24. That is why the ratio stops at 23.6%.

"Yo soy un poco más cauteloso y cautelosamente optimista de lo que pueda suceder. Yo creo que dos subidas sería lo adecuado para mantener y restringir un poquito la inflación. Así, deberíamos de estar más o menos con tipos alrededor del 2,75 o 3% para el cierre del año."

— Héctor Grisi, chief executive, Banco Santander, at the KPMG-Expansión forum (Europa Press, September 28, 2026)

What a bank-and-energy split does to a single-index model

The ratio is two closes, not a model of earnings or of bank weight. Banks fell 8.73% from September 3 to October 9 while energy rose from August 11. Grisi's two further hikes, toward 2.75% or 3% by year-end, are a cap: two quarter-point steps from 2.50% land at 3.00%. That argues against both a break of 18,821.9 and a return to 20,213.6 as the base case. If October 29 is still a hike, 18,625.7 replaces 19,232.1.

What would invalidate this call

The base case breaks if any one of these four signals prints.

• A daily IBEX 35 close below 18,821.9. That October 8 intraday low is the anchor. A close beneath it means the 23.6% map no longer describes the tape.
• The deposit facility is raised on October 29. A hike makes 18,625.7 the relevant level, not 19,232.1.
• IBEX 35 Bancos closes below 2,037.4. That is the sector's October 8 close. A break says the heavier leg is still leading, even if the headline index has not touched 18,821.9.
• A daily close above 19,419.7 on or before October 29. The shallow base case would have been too low, and the bull line would already be in the price.

What to watch before the press conference

October 29 is the press conference and the horizon. October 28 is day one. December 16 and December 17 are the next monetary policy dates, which CaixaBank Research puts near 90% as a deposit rate of 2.75%. The base case needs no hike that day and a close at or above 19,232.1 by then, without a close below 18,821.9. The same date anchors a separate CAC 40 deposit-rate case and a separate FTSE 100 gilt path on the market news desk. Neither figure is an input here.

TL;DR

IBEX 35 closed at 19,033.1 on October 9, 2026, on BME's series, 5.84% under the August 11 close of 20,213.6 and 9.97% above the December 31, 2025 close of 17,307.8. The base case is 19,232.1 by the October 29 ECB press conference: the October 8 close of 18,928.9 plus 23.6% of the 1,284.7-point drop, rounded to one decimal. The bull case is 19,419.7 if December is pushed aside. The bear case is 18,625.7 if the deposit facility rises on the day. A daily close below 18,821.9, the October 8 intraday low, invalidates the map.

FAQ

What is the IBEX 35 base case into October 29, 2026?

The base case is 19,232.1 by October 29, 2026, the day of the ECB press conference in Frankfurt. That is 199.0 points, or 1.05%, above the BME close of 19,033.1 on October 9. The bull case is 19,419.7 and the bear case is 18,625.7, from the same two closes. A daily close below 18,821.9 retires the base case before the horizon.

Where does 19,232.1 come from?

It is arithmetic on two BME closes, not a broker target. August 11, 2026 closed at 20,213.6. October 8, 2026 closed at 18,928.9. The gap is 1,284.7 points. A 23.6% share is 303.1892 points. Added to the October 8 close, that is 19,232.0892, which rounds to 19,232.1. The spot of 19,033.1 on October 9 comes from the same feed.

Which ECB meeting is the horizon?

The ECB calendar lists a Governing Council monetary policy meeting on October 28 and October 29, 2026, in Frankfurt, with the press conference on October 29. That day is the horizon. On September 10 the deposit facility went to 2.50%, main refinancing to 2.65% and the marginal lending facility to 2.90%, from September 16. The next dates on that calendar are December 16 and December 17.

What would prove this call wrong?

Any one of four prints is enough. A daily close below 18,821.9 breaks the October 8 anchor. A higher deposit facility on October 29 makes 18,625.7 the level that matters, not 19,232.1. An IBEX 35 Bancos close below 2,037.4 says the heavier leg is still falling. A daily close above 19,419.7 means the 23.6% base case was too low.

How have banks traded against the wider index?

IBEX 35 Bancos closed 2025 at 1,755.9 and stood at 2,045.6 on October 9, 2026, up 16.50% on that sum. It is down 6.80% from the August 11 close of 2,194.8 and down 8.73% from 2,241.2 on September 3. Energy closed higher, at 2,445.0. The headline index is up 9.97% from year-end and down 5.84% from August 11, so a banks close under 2,037.4 is its own invalidation.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.