LME aluminium retests $3,120 by the 19 October seminar

LME aluminium reaches $3,120.00 a tonne by October 19, 2026 in the base case, $3,204.00 in the bull case and $2,950.00 in the bear case. The base case is a retest of the October 1 cash settlement, not a new high. It uses the October 9 settlement of $3,055.50, a $14.50 contango, and the LME Metals Seminar on October 19. The call breaks if any one of four signals below fires.

The last Ring session before this Sunday note was Friday, October 9. The LME aluminium cash settlement was $3,055.50 a tonne and the three-month was $3,070.00, with reported stocks of 238,875 tonnes, on Westmetall's daily LME table. The 22 September cash settlements averaged $3,276.82. The case for a bounce only as far as October 1 follows from that gap. The contango, not the stock draw, is the tell.

Key Levels:

• Asset: LME aluminium cash settlement $3,055.50 a tonne on October 9, 2026; three-month $3,070.00 — Westmetall LME table, versus the FT Mercati official cash offer of $3,056
• Base case target: $3,120.00 by October 19, 2026 — retest of the October 1, 2026 cash settlement
• Bull case target: $3,204.00 — the September 30, 2026 cash settlement, if the seminar pushes Gulf restarts back out
• Bear case target: $2,950.00 — Goldman Sachs' fourth-quarter 2026 forecast as cut on July 6, 2026, per Newsquawk
• Major support: $3,055.50 — the October 9 cash settlement, the low of this window
• Major resistance: $3,204.00 — the September 30 cash settlement
• Invalidation level: a cash settlement at or below $3,017 — 10% under the September 9 settlement of $3,352.00 ($3,352.00 × 0.90 = $3,016.80, nearest dollar)

How the settlement, the curve and the date were fixed

Prices are the cash settlement, three-month and stocks on the Westmetall table of republished LME settlements, read October 11, 2026. FT Mercati has the October 9 official cash offer at $3,056, one $0.50 tick above the $3,055.50 used here. The $3,276.82 September mean is all 22 cash settlements from September 1 to September 30, not the login-gated monthly file. The LME events calendar and the agenda both put the Metals Seminar on Monday, October 19, 2026. The dinner page puts the dinner on Tuesday, October 20.

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Cash is 8.85% under September 9, and the curve has flipped

LME aluminium fell $296.50, or 8.85%, from $3,352.00 on September 9 to $3,055.50 on October 9. October 9 is $221.32, or 6.75%, under the September mean of $3,276.82. The three-month went from $14.00 below cash to $14.50 above it. Stocks fell 5,650 tonnes, to 238,875, and a June 22 ING note had them around 314,000 tonnes.

Source: Westmetall LME table, read October 11, 2026. A positive three-month-minus-cash figure is a contango.

LME aluminium is the London Metal Exchange contract for primary metal of at least 99.70% purity, in 25-tonne lots, and the cash settlement is the official seller's price on many supply contracts. On October 9, 2026 that settlement was $3,055.50 a tonne, the three-month was $3,070.00, and the curve was a $14.50 contango, with reported stocks of 238,875 tonnes on the Westmetall table. FT Mercati's official cash offer the same session was $3,056. The 22 September settlements averaged $3,276.82, so Friday was 6.75% under that month and 8.85% under the September 9 print of $3,352.00. Metallplace, citing the International Aluminium Institute on September 22, put August global primary output at 6.172 million tonnes, down 1.7% year on year. Softer output and a lower price can coexist. The contango is what says prompt metal is not scarce, even with 238,875 tonnes reported in warehouse.

"Still, we continue to expect aluminium prices to remain well-supported by historical standards, even if the extreme upside scenario we considered earlier this year has become less likely."

— Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist, ING (ING THINK, July 10, 2026)

Why the base case stops at the October 1 settlement

cnal.com on October 10 said some Japanese buyers agreed a fourth-quarter premium of $255 a tonne, 35% under the third quarter, with other talks open. Citing Norsk Hydro on October 5, it said an Alunorte gas cut would take 100,000 to 120,000 tonnes out of third-quarter alumina output, too little on those figures to clear $3,204.00 before Monday.

A higher US 10-year yield into the October 28 Federal Reserve meeting raises the cost of holding metal. The Hang Seng hold-not-pivot case is the China question. ING on July 10, citing the National Bureau of Statistics, put May primary output at a record 3.89 million tonnes and May product exports at 630,000 tonnes, up 16% year on year. EU carbon matters for restarts, not for six sessions, on the Market News desk.

The working map for LME aluminium is a cash settlement of $3,120.00 on or before October 19, 2026, which is only the October 1 print. It sits $64.50 above October 9 and $84.00 below the September 30 settlement of $3,204.00, so the bull case stops there rather than at the September 9 high of $3,352.00. The reason is the curve: a $14.50 contango on October 9 replaced a $14.00 backwardation on September 9, which is a prompt squeeze that has already eased. ING's July 10 balance, a 1.2 million tonne deficit instead of 1.8 million, says the same thing. The June 22 note still had the Middle East at about 9% of global primary output and the larger deficit, in the ING PDF of that date. October 19 is the next date on the LME events list, not a modelled horizon.

What six sessions cannot see

Six London sessions run from October 12 to October 19. Cash fell $84.00 on October 1 alone, so a 2.11% bounce can fail with no smelter news. Cancelled warrants were not on an open page for October 9, so a stock of 238,875 tonnes is only a partial tell.

"Following the Middle East disruption, supply elasticity has fallen across the system as China remains capped and ex-China supply growth is insufficient to offset ongoing deficits. Unlike previous downturns where weaker demand and eventual supply rationalisation loosened the market, the current shock is supply-driven and much of the damage is already done."

— Wenyu Yao, Senior Metals Strategist, Citigroup, in the bank's May 19, 2026 note as carried by MarketWatch (MarketWatch, May 19, 2026)

What would invalidate this call

The base case to $3,120.00 breaks if any one of these fires on or before October 19, 2026:

• A cash settlement at or below $3,017, 10% under the September 9 print of $3,352.00. That is the invalidation level. The unwind would then be a trend, not an overshoot.
• An October 16 settlement below $3,055.50. The Friday before the seminar would show the sell-off extending. October 9 is the low of the window.
• A three-month premium over cash wider than $14.50 on every session from October 12 through October 16. A contango that widens every day means forward supply is loosening faster than any bid.
• Stocks back above 246,725 tonnes, the August 28 reading, before October 19. That would reverse the draw that still argues for a floor under a 2% bounce.

What to watch into October 19

The catalyst is the LME Metals Seminar on Monday, October 19, 2026. Saad Rahim of Trafigura speaks at 09.35, and Jorge Vazquez of Harbor Aluminum has the aluminium seat at 10.55. The dinner on Tuesday, October 20 is not a second price event. Watch cash against $3,120.00 and $3,017 through October 19, and whether the three-month premium narrows from $14.50. August output of 6.172 million tonnes stays the latest verified global figure.

TL;DR

LME aluminium cash settlement was $3,055.50 a tonne on October 9, 2026, the three-month was $3,070.00, and reported stocks were 238,875 tonnes. The base case retests the October 1 settlement of $3,120.00 by the LME Metals Seminar on October 19. The bull case is $3,204.00 and the bear case is $2,950.00. September's 22 settlements averaged $3,276.82, so Friday is 6.75% under that month. The curve is a $14.50 contango after a $14.00 backwardation on September 9. A cash settlement at or below $3,017 invalidates the bounce.

FAQ

What is the latest LME aluminium cash settlement?

It is $3,055.50 a tonne, set on October 9, 2026, with the three-month at $3,070.00. That is the Westmetall reading of the LME series, one $0.50 tick under the $3,056 official cash offer FT Mercati records for the same session. Reported stocks were 238,875 tonnes. October 11 was not a Ring day, so no later official settlement exists.

Why is the base case $3,120 rather than the September high?

$3,120.00 is the October 1 cash settlement, only $64.50 above October 9. The September 9 settlement of $3,352.00 is $296.50 higher, and the curve has flipped from a $14.00 backwardation to a $14.50 contango. Partial premium deals at $255 a tonne also argue against using September's high as the near magnet. The bull case of $3,204.00 needs a harder restart story.

What would prove this call wrong?

A cash settlement at or below $3,017, which is 10% under the September 9 print of $3,352.00, ends the call. So does an October 16 settlement under $3,055.50. A three-month premium over cash wider than $14.50 on every session from October 12 to October 16, or stocks back above 246,725 tonnes, would also break it. Any one of those four signals is enough on its own.

Why is the horizon October 19, 2026?

That is the date on the LME events calendar for the Metals Seminar, and the agenda page says Monday, October 19, 2026. The dinner is the next evening. The horizon is that seminar, not a quarter-end and not a guessed production-release date. Six London sessions sit between this note and that Monday. The call is the cash settlement on or before then, not the 2027 balance.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.