S&P/TSX to 34,938 by December 9: higher bond yields

The S&P/TSX reaches 34,938.01 by December 9, 2026 in the base case, 37,069.11 in the bull case and 33,233.39 in the bear case, because the 10-year Government of Canada yield is 48 basis points higher than on July 2 and the December 9 announcement publishes no Monetary Policy Report.

The Toronto Stock Exchange quote for the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed at 35,664.62 on October 9, 2026, 12.46 per cent above the December 31, 2025 close of 31,712.76. The Bank of Canada held the overnight target at 2.25 per cent on September 2, the seventh hold since the October 29, 2025 cut. December 9 is an announcement at 09:45 ET with no Monetary Policy Report.

Key Levels:

• Asset: S&P/TSX Composite Index at 35,664.62 — Toronto Stock Exchange quote, October 9, 2026 close
• Base case target: 34,938.01 by December 9, 2026 — October 1, 2026 intraday low
• Bull case target: 37,069.11 — August 26, 2026 intraday high, if a daily close is above 36,410.62
• Bear case target: 33,233.39 — April 29, 2026 intraday low, if the overnight target is raised and 34,938.01 breaks
• Major support: 34,318.793 — 200-day moving average on the October 9 quote
• Major resistance: 36,410.62 — September 22, 2026 intraday high
• Invalidation level: daily close above 36,410.62 — above the September 22 high, the base case is done

How the S&P/TSX levels were measured

Spot is the Toronto Stock Exchange quote for symbol ^TSX. The close is 35,664.62 and it matches the daily history for October 9, 2026. October 10 was a Saturday, so this is the last cash print. Highs and lows run from December 31, 2025 through October 9. The 50-day average of 36,021.445 and the 200-day average of 34,318.793 sit on that quote and will drift before December 9. Yields are the Bank of Canada Valet 2-year, 10-year and real return bond for July 2 and October 8, from the benchmark yield group. The overnight target is the policy-rate table. Dates come from the August 6, 2025 schedule and the upcoming-events page.

Related:ASX 200 to 8,500 by November 3: the cash-rate case

Where the index sits after seven holds

The October 9 close is 3.79 per cent under the August 26 high of 37,069.11. October 1 printed a low of 34,938.01. September 2 closed at 36,091.61.

Sources: Toronto Stock Exchange quote and daily history, October 9, 2026; Bank of Canada Valet, October 8, 2026 versus July 2, 2026; policy-rate table, September 2, 2026 versus October 29, 2025. Time window: December 31, 2025 to October 9, 2026.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index is the cash index of large equities on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and this call has the S&P/TSX at 34,938.01 by December 9, 2026, at 37,069.11 if the September high breaks, and at 33,233.39 if the overnight target is raised. The exchange quote showed a close of 35,664.62 on October 9, 2026, 1.477 per cent above 35,145.38. That close is 12.46 per cent above the December 31, 2025 close of 31,712.76 and 3.79 per cent under the August 26 high of 37,069.11. It sits 0.99 per cent under the 50-day average of 36,021.445 and 3.92 per cent above the 200-day average of 34,318.793. The 10-year yield was 3.93 per cent on October 8, 48 basis points above 3.45 per cent on July 2, and the 2-year yield rose by the same 48 basis points. The gap between them was 69 basis points on both dates. From 35,664.62 the October 1 low of 34,938.01 is 2.04 per cent lower.

"However, the upside risks to inflation have increased, while new tariffs make growth prospects more uncertain. Governing Council will assess the sustainability of the economic rebound and the outlook for inflation, and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed."

— Tiff Macklem, Governor, Bank of Canada (Bank of Canada, September 2, 2026)

Why 34,938.01 is the level that matters by December 9

The policy rate has not moved. The bond yield has. The 10-year went from 3.45 per cent on July 2 to 3.93 per cent on October 8, and the real return bond from 1.79 per cent to 1.98 per cent. The September 2 summary of deliberations said financial conditions had tightened since July. The October 1 low is a retest of the pullback from August 26, not a give-back of the gain since December 31, 2025.

The December 9, 2026 Bank of Canada announcement is an interest-rate decision without a Monetary Policy Report. The schedule published on August 6, 2025 sets eight announcements, each at 09:45 Eastern Time, and attaches the Monetary Policy Report only to January, April, July and October. December 9 is the last announcement of 2026 and it carries no new projection. October 28 is the date that does publish a Monetary Policy Report, so the forecast lands about six weeks earlier. On September 2 the Bank held the overnight target at 2.25 per cent, with the Bank Rate at 2.5 per cent and the deposit rate at 2.20 per cent. Inflation was around 3 per cent, and inflation excluding gasoline was 2.2 per cent in July. The base case does not need a cut or a hike that morning. It needs the October 1 low of 34,938.01 to trade while the 10-year yield stays above 3.45 per cent.

Seven holds, with second-quarter gross domestic product up 3.3 per cent, can also mean 34,938.01 never prints. The bear case of 33,233.39 applies only if December 9 raises the overnight target. The same calendar backs the CAD/JPY note into October 30 and the ASX 200 cash-rate case. The US 10-year yield note ends on October 28, before this horizon.

What a hold-day close does not prove

Decision-day direction is a poor test. September 2, 2026 finished up 265.88 points, at 36,091.61, on a hold. March 18 finished down 616.42 points, at 32,312.67, also on a hold. April 29 printed the low of 33,233.39 on a hold.

Oil cuts both ways. The energy prices Macklem tied to inflation risk are also revenue for producers in the S&P/TSX, so the bear case waits on a higher overnight target, not on oil alone.

"We set one interest rate for the whole economy. We cannot set one rate for housing and another for everything else."

— Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada (Bank of Canada, October 1, 2026)

What would invalidate this S&P/TSX call

The base case to 34,938.01 breaks if any one of these four signals fires:

• A daily close above 36,410.62. That is the September 22 high. Above it, the pullback from August 26 is no longer the swing in force.
• The December 9 release sets the overnight target below 2.25 per cent. A cut removes the no-easing leg.
• The 10-year benchmark prints at or below 3.45 per cent before December 9. That is the July 2 reading. The 48-basis-point rise would have been given back.
• 34,938.01 is still untraded at the December 9 close. The base case needs the October 1 low to print.

What to watch before December 9

Business and consumer surveys are due at 10:30 ET on Monday, October 19. The next announcement and Monetary Policy Report are at 09:45 ET on Wednesday, October 28. The horizon is Wednesday, December 9, at 09:45 ET, without that report. Price has to trade 34,938.01. A daily close above 36,410.62 ends the base case. Both levels are on the Toronto Stock Exchange history for ^TSX. The yield check is 3.93 per cent against 3.45 per cent. The real return bond was 1.98 per cent on October 8, 19 basis points above the July 2 reading of 1.79 per cent.

TL;DR

The S&P/TSX closed at 35,664.62 on October 9, 2026. The base case is 34,938.01 by December 9, the bull case is 37,069.11 and the bear case is 33,233.39. The 10-year Government of Canada yield was 3.93 per cent on October 8, 48 basis points above 3.45 per cent on July 2, on the Bank of Canada Valet series. The overnight target is 2.25 per cent after seven holds. December 9 is an announcement at 09:45 ET with no Monetary Policy Report. A daily close above 36,410.62 ends the call.

Questions on the S&P/TSX call

What is the S&P/TSX base case into December 9?

The base case is 34,938.01 by December 9, 2026, the October 1 intraday low. From the October 9 close of 35,664.62 that is 2.04 per cent lower. The bull case of 37,069.11 is the August 26 high, and it needs a daily close above 36,410.62 first. The bear case of 33,233.39 is the April 29 low, and it needs a higher overnight target. The horizon is the December 9 close.

What spot is the call using?

Spot is 35,664.62, the Toronto Stock Exchange close on October 9, 2026, 1.477 per cent above 35,145.38. October 10 was a Saturday, so there is no later cash print. That close cannot invalidate the call. Invalidation is a daily close above 36,410.62. The 50-day average on the quote is 36,021.445 and the 200-day average is 34,318.793. The averages will change. The October 1 low will not.

Does the call require a cut or a hike on December 9?

No. This is a price path, not a forecast of the vote. On September 2 Macklem said upside risks to inflation had increased and that Governing Council was prepared to adjust, and the Bank left the overnight target at 2.25 per cent. A further hold can still sit with a drift to 34,938.01. A cut below 2.25 per cent ends the call. A hike is the condition for 33,233.39, not for the base case.

What invalidates the S&P/TSX call?

Any one of four events is enough. A daily close above 36,410.62 ends the base case. So does an overnight target below 2.25 per cent on December 9. So does a 10-year yield at or below 3.45 per cent before that date. If 34,938.01 is still untraded at the December 9 close, the path did not happen. The October 9 close cannot fire any of these.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.