CAD/JPY slips to 109.78 into the October 30 outlook

CAD/JPY reaches 109.78 by October 30, 2026 in the base case, 114.22 in the bull case and 108.30 in the bear case. The base case is half a one-month realised move on the yen leg into the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Outlook, with the Bank of Canada (BOC) Monetary Policy Report (MPR) on October 28 as the offset. Yahoo Finance CADJPY=X printed 111.258 at 07:26:29 UTC on October 1, 2026, down 3.50% from 115.295 twenty-one sessions earlier. A close above 113.48 breaks it.

Key Levels:

• Asset: CAD/JPY at 111.258 — Yahoo Finance CADJPY=X, 07:26:29 UTC on October 1, 2026
• Base case target: 109.78 by October 30, 2026 — half a 21-session realised move below the spot
• Bull case target: 114.22 — one full move higher
• Bear case target: 108.30 — one full move lower
• Major support: 110.52 — a quarter-move below the spot
• Major resistance: 112.00 — a quarter-move above the spot
• Invalidation level: daily close above 113.48 — three quarters of the move above the spot

How 109.78 is scaled from the October 1 print

M, defined again with the arithmetic in the next section, is 2.961 yen. Half of M is the base case, one M either side is the bull and bear case, a quarter of M is support and resistance, and three quarters of M above the spot is the invalidation, rounded to two decimals. The 115.295 bar is timestamped 23:00 UTC on September 1. The January 2 close was 114.25, a year-to-date change of -2.62%. The 90-day range was 110.173 to 116.477.

The rate gap, the CPI prints and the pre-summary swap odds

CAD/JPY is the number of yen one Canadian dollar buys, and the base case in this note is 109.78 by October 30, 2026. It is the Yahoo Finance CADJPY=X print of 111.258, recorded at 07:26:29 UTC on October 1, 2026, minus half of one 21-session realised move. The move equals that spot times a 20-session realised volatility of 9.2206%, annualised on a 252-day year from the population standard deviation of daily log returns in the same series, times the square root of 21 divided by 252. The product is 2.961 yen. Half of it is 1.481 yen, and 111.258 minus 1.481 equals 109.777, which rounds to 109.78 at the usual two-decimal yen quotation. The same arithmetic sets 114.22, 108.30 and a daily close above 113.48. No level in the ladder comes from anywhere but that print.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, October 1, 2026; BOJ, September 18, 2026; BOC, January 28 and September 2; BOC bond yields; Statistics Canada, September 14; Ministry of Finance, September 30.

August CPI was 3.0%, or 2.4% excluding gasoline, with the median at 2.0% and trim at 1.9%. July's fiscal 2026 median, excluding fresh food, was +2.5%. The 3.37% Canada two-year of September 28 and the 1.964% JGB yield of September 30 span about 141 basis points on different days. The pre-summary odds are those in the CNBC-TV18 report.

"The BOJ has been stressing quite strongly that there is a risk that underlying inflation could rise above 2%. Given that, I don't think that risk will diminish over the next three months. If anything, it's more likely to increase."

— Kazuo Momma, executive economist, Mizuho Research & Technologies, and former BOJ executive director (Bloomberg, via Yahoo Finance)

Why the October 30 Outlook carries the yen leg

The yen leg of CAD/JPY is the Bank of Japan's policy path. On September 18, 2026 the Policy Board set the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 1.25%, up from around 1.00%, by a seven-to-two vote. The October 1 summary says it remains appropriate to keep raising the policy rate while financial conditions are still accommodative. Before that summary, Bloomberg swaps implied more than a 95% chance of another hike by December and about a 21% chance on October 30, CNBC-TV18 reported. The Bank of Canada held its overnight target at 2.25% on January 28 and on September 2, and next decides, with a Monetary Policy Report, at 09:45 Eastern Time on October 28. A 100 basis point gap still favours the Canadian dollar, so the base case is half a realised move, not a full one.

The BOJ calendar sets October 29 and 30, with the Outlook on October 30. Asada and Sato dissented. Reuters put the neutral range at 1.1% to 2.5%. "It's important to stabilise underlying inflation at 2%. Our policy phase has changed," Governor Kazuo Ueda said, Reuters reported.

Canada decides first, at 09:45 Eastern Time on October 28 with the MPR, on the BOC events list. The 2.25% target was held on January 28 and September 2. A hold is the base and a hike is the bull case. The Bank of Canada's October 28 decision and the October 28 rates slate are context, not inputs to 109.78.

Where the September 18 reaction breaks the model

A 9.2206% band assumes the next 21 sessions resemble the last 20. The September 17 session closed at 111.610 after a 112.884 high, and September 24 was still 112.260, so a priced hike did not lower the cross. That is why the base case is half of M. The 108.30 bear case is under the 90-day low of 110.173. Intervention can exceed M in a single day.

"Overall, the BOJ's decision and Ueda's comments point to a modestly hawkish medium-term stance. However, the near-term message is not hawkish enough to trigger a significant repricing of the yen."

— Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy, OCBC (Reuters)

What would invalidate this call

The base case to 109.78 breaks if any one of these four signals fires:

• A daily CAD/JPY close above 113.48. That is three quarters of M above the spot. An intraday spike does not count.
• The BOC lifts the overnight target above 2.25% on October 28 and CAD/JPY is above 112.00 at 16:00 London time that day. The Canadian leg would have cleared resistance before the BOJ published.
• The October 30 Bank's View cuts the fiscal 2026 CPI median, excluding fresh food, below the July +2.5%, or drops the line that the Bank will keep raising the policy rate. The benchmark is the July 31, 2026 Outlook.
• A Bloomberg probability of a further BOJ hike by December prints below 50% before October 30. The pre-summary reading on October 1 was above 95%.

What to watch from Victoria to the Outlook

Rogers speaks in Victoria on October 1, after this print. The BOC list then has the Business Outlook Survey on October 19 at 11:30 Eastern Time and the decision on October 28 at 09:45. Reuters on September 30 flagged Tokyo prices on October 2. On the cross, 110.52 and 112.00 are a quarter of M from 111.258. Yen positioning into the October 30 policy date shares the date, not the level.

TL;DR

CAD/JPY is 111.258 at 07:26:29 UTC on October 1, 2026, on Yahoo Finance. The base case is 109.78 by October 30, half of a 2.961 yen move, with 114.22 if the BOC hikes and the Outlook is bland, and 108.30 if the BOJ hikes or flags an overshoot. The September 18 rise to 1.25% cut the gap with Canada's 2.25% target from 125 basis points to 100. The October 1 summary still backs further hikes. A daily close above 113.48 invalidates the call. Pre-summary swaps put an October 30 hike near 21%.

FAQ

What is the base-case CAD/JPY target into October 30, 2026?

The base case is 109.78, the Yahoo Finance print of 111.258 at 07:26:29 UTC on October 1, 2026, minus half of a 2.961 yen realised move. That move uses 9.2206% volatility on the last 20 daily log returns. Bull and bear cases are 114.22 and 108.30. A daily close above 113.48 retires the call. Every figure is rounded from that same print, not from a prior swing.

Why does the yen leg dominate the Canadian leg in this call?

The BOJ lifted the call rate to around 1.25% on September 18, and the October 1 summary still says it should keep raising. October 30's news is the Outlook, against a July fiscal 2026 CPI median of +2.5%. The BOC held at 2.25% on January 28 and September 2, so a hold there leaves the Outlook as the marginal news. The 100 basis point gap caps the base case at half a move.

What did the Bank of Japan decide on September 18, 2026?

By a seven-to-two vote the Board set the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 1.25%, from around 1.00%. The deposit rate became 1.25% and the basic loan rate 1.5% from September 24. Asada and Sato dissented. The Bank said conditions would stay accommodative and that it would keep raising the policy rate. Ueda told Reuters the phase had changed, towards stabilising inflation at 2% rather than pushing it up.

When do the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan next set policy?

The BOC publishes the rate decision and the MPR at 09:45 Eastern Time on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. The BOJ meets on Thursday, October 29 and Friday, October 30, and releases the Outlook, including the Bank's View, on October 30. The full text follows at 2:00 p.m. on the next business day. This call uses October 30 because that is when the medians and the policy paragraph appear.

What would a BOC hike on October 28 do to this call?

A hike above 2.25% does not, alone, retire the base case. It is the bull case, at 114.22, if the Outlook does not firm the yen. The invalidation is joint: the target rises and CAD/JPY is above 112.00 at 16:00 London time on October 28. A hike that leaves the cross under 112.00 keeps 109.78 alive into October 30.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.