EUR/AUD to 1.6095 by the November 3 RBA decision

EUR/AUD reaches 1.6095 by November 3, 2026 in the base case, 1.5960 in the bear case and 1.6546 in the bull case. The base case is the September 18 European Central Bank (ECB) reference low, after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) restored a 210-basis-point gap over the ECB deposit facility and August consumer prices rose 4.0 per cent.

The RBA's 4.00 pm fixing on September 30, 2026 set the euro at 0.6150 per Australian dollar, or 1.6260 in EUR/AUD terms. That reciprocal sits 165 pips above the September 18 ECB reference of 1.6095 and 178 pips below the August 20 reference of 1.6438. What follows ties the range to the August consumer price index (CPI), out at 11.30 am the same morning, and to four prints that would kill the base case.

Key Levels:

• Asset: EUR/AUD at 1.6260 — reciprocal of the RBA 4.00 pm fixing of 0.6150 on September 30, 2026
• Base case target: 1.6095 by November 3, 2026 — ECB reference low, September 18, 2026
• Bull case target: 1.6546 if November 3 drops a further hike — ECB reference high, July 2, 2026
• Bear case target: 1.5960 if 1.6095 breaks — 135 pips under that low, the September 1 to September 18 fall from 1.6230
• Major support: 1.6095 — ECB reference, September 18, 2026
• Major resistance: 1.6438 — ECB reference, August 20, 2026
• Invalidation level: a weekly close above 1.6438 — break of that August 20 reference

How the 1.6260 spot and the 1.6095 target were measured

The spot is a central-bank fixing, not a dealer screen. The RBA homepage showed 0.6150 euros per Australian dollar at 4.00 pm on September 30, 2026, and 1 divided by 0.6150 rounds to 1.6260. Swing levels are ECB reference rates, in Australian dollars per euro, from July 2 to September 29, 2026: 1.6546 on July 2, 1.6095 on September 18, 1.6438 on August 20, 1.6230 on September 1 and 1.6211 on September 29. Those fixings are not the same clock, so the 165-pip gap is arithmetic before any basis between Sydney and Frankfurt. No Commitments of Traders contract exists on the cross, and none is inferred here.

The hike, the 4.0 per cent CPI and the restored gap

The base case is a retest of 1.6095 by the November 3 cash-rate decision. The RBA homepage sets that update at 2.30 pm on November 3, and the board meeting schedule puts the Monetary Policy Board on November 2–3. On September 29 the Board raised the target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent. Against a 4.35 per cent cash rate the gap to the 2.50 per cent deposit facility was 185 basis points. From September 30 it is 210. August CPI arrived after the vote. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said prices rose 4.0 per cent in the year to August, from 3.5 per cent to July. Housing rose 5.7 per cent and automotive fuel rose 14.8 per cent in the month, after 7.5 per cent in July. The trimmed mean, excluding fuel and electricity, held at 3.6 per cent for a third month. Headline inflation reaccelerated and underlying inflation did not cool, so the target is the September low.

Sources: RBA homepage, September 30, 2026; ECB reference file, July 2–September 29, 2026; ECB decision of September 10, 2026; RBA decision 2026-27; ABS CPI release. Prior rates are each target minus 25 basis points. Window: July 2 to September 29, 2026.

"Trimmed mean annual inflation remained steady at 3.6 per cent for the third consecutive month in August."

— Rachael McCririck, head of price statistics, Australian Bureau of Statistics (Australian Bureau of Statistics)

Why a lower EUR/AUD is the transmission the Bank described

A lower EUR/AUD is the exchange-rate channel the Governor described. On September 29 Michele Bullock said, "The Board will increase interest rates again if that’s what’s needed to get inflation down." She also said that "the most important channel is the exchange rate channel." The decision statement says risks flagged in August are materialising and that the Board will raise the cash rate further if needed. ECB staff put euro-area inflation at 3.0 per cent on average in 2026, against Australia's 4.0 per cent. The next press conference is on October 29, on the Governing Council calendar. Another 25-basis-point rise would narrow the gap to 185 basis points, not close it. The cross fell 135 pips from the September 1 reference to September 18, then bounced, so a return to 1.6095 sits inside that range. November 3 is also the horizon on our Australian dollar–yen note. The level here is the September 18 euro reference, not that yen target.

What a priced hike and a steady trimmed mean can still do

The call misses how much of the hike was priced, and how little of the 4.0 per cent CPI sat in the trimmed mean. Bullock refused forward guidance, called conditions "a bit restrictive," and called four increases a hope. She put unemployment at 4.6 per cent. If the October 13 minutes show a hike meant to wait, 1.6260 can drift up rather than back to 1.6095. The file shows that pattern: 1.6546 on July 2, 1.6191 on August 31 after an unchanged cash rate, and a September 18 low before the hike. Our euro–zloty note and our euro–New Zealand dollar note are other crosses. Their levels are not this one.

"Now, will it be enough? I don’t know. I’m not going to give you forward guidance."

— Michele Bullock, governor, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA media conference, September 29, 2026)

What would invalidate this call

The base case to 1.6095 breaks if any one of these four signals fires:

• A weekly ECB reference close above 1.6438. That August 20 print ends the decline from the July 2 high of 1.6546.
• The November 3 statement drops "further if needed" and leaves the cash rate at 4.60 per cent. The path is then the bull case, toward 1.6546.
• The October 28 inflation update on the RBA homepage shows trimmed-mean inflation at or below 3.2 per cent. That would be 0.4 percentage points under the 3.6 per cent August reading.
• On October 29 the ECB lifts the deposit facility to 2.75 per cent or higher, and the October 13 minutes call September the likely last rise. Both are required. Either alone leaves the bias in place.

The dates that matter before November 3

Four issuer dates sit between this fixing and the horizon. The Financial Stability Review is at 11.30 am on October 1. Minutes of the September meeting are at 11.30 am on October 13. The RBA homepage lists the next inflation update on October 28. The ECB press conference is on October 29. This call runs to the November 2–3 meeting, and to the cash-rate announcement at 2.30 pm on November 3. On the cross, 1.6095 has to break for the bear case of 1.5960, and a weekly ECB reference close above 1.6438 ends the base case.

TL;DR

EUR/AUD is 1.6260, the reciprocal of the RBA's 0.6150 euro fixing at 4.00 pm on September 30, 2026. The base case is 1.6095 by the November 3 decision, the ECB reference low of September 18. The bear case is 1.5960 and the bull case is 1.6546, the July 2 high, if the Board drops its further-hike line. The cash rate is 4.60 per cent against an ECB deposit rate of 2.50 per cent, a 210-basis-point gap. The ABS put August CPI at 4.0 per cent, up from 3.5 per cent, while the trimmed mean stayed at 3.6 per cent. A weekly ECB reference close above 1.6438 invalidates the call.

FAQ

What is the EUR/AUD base-case target, and where does 1.6095 come from?

The base case is 1.6095 by November 3, 2026. That price is the ECB euro reference for the Australian dollar on September 18, the low from July 2 to September 29. The spot beside it is 1.6260, the reciprocal of the RBA's 0.6150 euro-per-dollar rate at 4.00 pm on September 30. The bear case, 1.5960, repeats the 135-pip fall from the September 1 reference of 1.6230. The bull case is the July 2 reference high of 1.6546.

When does the RBA next set the cash rate?

The Monetary Policy Board meets on November 2–3, 2026. The RBA homepage says the next cash-rate update is at 2.30 pm on November 3, and that announcement is the horizon. The target is 4.60 per cent, effective September 30, after a unanimous 25-basis-point rise on September 29. Minutes are due at 11.30 am on October 13. A hold at 4.60 per cent does not by itself kill the base case. Deleting the further-increase sentence does.

Which inflation figure is this call using?

The ABS release of September 30, 2026, covering August. The CPI rose 4.0 per cent on the year, from 3.5 per cent to July, and 0.4 per cent on the month. The trimmed mean was 3.6 per cent for a third month. Housing rose 5.7 per cent and was the largest contributor. Automotive fuel rose 14.8 per cent in August. The flat trimmed mean is why the target stops at the September low.

What price would prove the base case wrong?

A weekly close above 1.6438 in the ECB euro reference, the August 20, 2026 print. That is the invalidation, and it sits above the September 30 reciprocal of 1.6260. If the weekly close prints, the fall from the July 2 high of 1.6546 is over and 1.6095 is no longer the base case. The bull case then looks toward 1.6546, and only if the November 3 statement also drops the option of another rise in the cash rate.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.