EUR/PLN reaches 4.40 by November 4, 2026 in the base case, 4.43 in the bull case and 4.28 in the bear case, because the policy-rate gap between the National Bank of Poland (NBP) and the European Central Bank (ECB) has shrunk from 200 to 125 basis points this year while the NBP governor guides for flat rates into the first half of 2027.

EUR/PLN traded at 4.3449 at 06:50 UTC on September 15, 2026 (TradingView FX_IDC composite), 3.1% above the NBP’s January 2 fixing of 4.2156. The ECB’s deposit facility rate rises to 2.50% on September 16, its second increase this year, while the NBP reference rate has sat at 3.75% since March 5. That leaves the zloty’s policy premium over the euro at 125bp, the narrowest of 2026. The call breaks if any one of four signals fires, listed in the Disconfirmation section.

Key Levels:

• Asset: EUR/PLN at 4.3449 spot (06:50 UTC, September 15, 2026) — TradingView FX_IDC composite; NBP fixing 4.3391 on September 14, 2026
• Base case target: 4.40 by November 4, 2026 — rate-gap compression; about one standard deviation on 3.6% realised volatility over 37 sessions
• Bull case target: 4.43 — if the ECB hikes again on October 29 and the NBP holds at 3.75% on November 4
• Bear case target: 4.28 — if the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) validates market hike pricing; near the 100-day average of fixings (4.2857)
• Major support: 4.3158 (50-day simple moving average, TradingView), then 4.2982 (August 6, 2026 NBP fixing, the low since August began)
• Major resistance: 4.3465 (July 10, 2026 NBP fixing, the 2026 high), then 4.3802 (January 26, 2024 fixing)
• Invalidation level: a weekly close below 4.2982, which would erase the post-July range

How this EUR/PLN call was built: sources, window and caveats

Spot and technical levels come from the NBP’s Table A daily fixings, pulled raw through the NBP web API for January 2, 2023 to September 14, 2026, cross-checked against ECB euro reference rates (4.3418 on September 14) and the TradingView FX_IDC composite at 06:50 UTC on September 15. Policy rates come from the NBP’s official interest-rate file and the ECB’s key interest rates table. Inflation data are Statistics Poland (GUS) flash estimates. Realised volatility is the annualised standard deviation of 63 daily log changes in the NBP fixing. Caveats: the policy-rate gap is a proxy for the two-year swap spread, which was not pulled directly; market pricing of NBP hikes is taken from ING research; and a daily fixing is a mid-morning snapshot, not a closing price.

The data: a zloty premium squeezed from both ends

The rate gap has narrowed in three steps this year, and EUR/PLN has risen each time the squeeze has been confirmed by communication rather than by the decision itself. The table shows each step against the NBP fixing.

Date	Event	EUR/PLN (NBP fixing)	NBP reference rate	ECB deposit rate	NBP–ECB gap
January 2, 2026	First fixing of 2026	4.2156	4.00%	2.00%	200bp
March 5, 2026	NBP 25bp cut takes effect	4.2739	3.75%	2.00%	175bp
June 17, 2026	ECB 25bp hike takes effect	4.2396	3.75%	2.25%	150bp
July 10, 2026	First fixing after the July NBP press conference	4.3465	3.75%	2.25%	150bp
September 14, 2026	Latest NBP fixing	4.3391	3.75%	2.25%	150bp
September 16, 2026	ECB 25bp hike takes effect	4.3449 (spot, September 15)	3.75%	2.50%	125bp

Sources: NBP Table A fixings and NBP interest-rate file; ECB key interest rates table; TradingView FX_IDC composite (06:50 UTC, September 15, 2026). Time window: January 2 to September 15, 2026.

EUR/PLN is rising in 2026 because the zloty’s interest-rate premium over the euro is being squeezed from both ends at once. The NBP cut its reference rate to 3.75% on March 5 and has held it there for five consecutive decisions, while the ECB has raised its deposit facility rate from 2.00% to 2.50% in two steps, effective June 17 and September 16, to lean against a commodity-driven inflation shock. The gap between the two policy rates has therefore fallen from 200bp on January 2 to 125bp, and the NBP fixing has climbed from 4.2156 to 4.3391 over the same stretch, a 2.9% move. The zloty has also lagged its regional peers: the TradingView composite shows EUR/PLN up 3.16% year to date against a 0.65% rise in EUR/CZK and a 4.38% fall in EUR/HUF. A shrinking carry cushion, not a Polish growth scare, is the common thread.

Pair	Spot	1M change	YTD change	50-day SMA	200-day SMA
EUR/PLN	4.3449	+0.88%	+3.16%	4.3158	4.2579
EUR/CZK	24.2958	+0.36%	+0.65%	24.1766	24.2515
EUR/HUF	366.96	+1.13%	−4.38%	362.69	370.35

Source: TradingView FX_IDC composite quotes and moving averages, 06:50 UTC, September 15, 2026.

“EUR/PLN rebounded to 4.320-4.330, in line with yesterday’s range, as dovish repricing narrowed the rate differential. We see scope for a further move towards 4.330-4.340 today.”

— Frantisek Taborsky, EMEA FX & FI Strategist, ING (ING THINK, FX Daily, September 11, 2026)

Why the gap keeps shrinking into the November NBP projection

The mechanism is a mismatch between what the Polish rates market prices and what the NBP says it will do. Markets priced roughly 85bp of tightening around the September 8–9 MPC meeting, according to ING’s September 10 FX Daily. Governor Adam Glapiński then signalled a long hold; in ING’s account his personal view is that rates stay unchanged until the first half of 2027. ING economists Rafal Benecki, Mateusz Sutowicz and Leszek Kasek wrote that his stance “still contrasts with aggressive market pricing, which implies that interest rates will rise by around 75bp over the next year” (ING THINK, September 10, 2026).

The NBP’s forward guidance matters more than the ECB’s for EUR/PLN right now because the ECB side of the gap is already priced and the Polish side is not. A market that prices 75bp to 85bp of NBP hikes while the governor guides for none is carrying a hawkish premium on the zloty leg. Each MPC meeting that ends without a hike, and each press conference that repeats the “appropriate” description of 3.75%, removes part of that premium and narrows the forward-looking rate differential even if the spot policy gap stays at 125bp. ING’s Taborsky described exactly that move on September 11, with EUR/PLN rebounding “as dovish repricing narrowed the rate differential”. The November 3–4 MPC meeting, which by NBP convention brings the new staff inflation projection, is the next point at which the Council can either validate or retire market hike pricing, so it anchors the November 4 deadline.

The ECB leg adds a second push. Its Governing Council meets on October 28–29 (ECB meeting calendar), and another 25bp move would take the gap to 100bp. The pattern echoes the carry squeeze behind our EUR/JPY vanishing-carry call, and the regional-rate logic of our EUR/NOK krone rate-premium call.

The strongest counter-argument is inflation. GUS put August CPI at 3.4% year on year, up from 3.0% in July, with fuel prices 24.2% higher than a year earlier. That sits just below the 3.5% ceiling of the NBP’s tolerance band, and a breach would make a hawkish turn hard to resist.

What the rate-gap model misses

A policy-rate gap explains direction, not timing, and Polish history shows how quickly flows can overwhelm it. When the NBP’s 75bp cut took effect on September 7, 2023, the fixing jumped from 4.4974 to 4.5940 in a day and reached 4.6836 on September 12. Then the October 15 parliamentary election changed the capital-flow picture, and EUR/PLN fell to 4.3053 by December 14 despite a further cut. A political or European Union (EU) funds shock could do the same in reverse today.

Volatility is the second limit. At 3.6% annualised realised volatility, 125bp of carry still pays a carry-to-volatility ratio of about 0.34, which keeps the zloty attractive to real-money investors even as the premium thins. The model also ignores the NBP’s option to intervene: ING noted in July that official communications refer to the possibility of foreign-exchange intervention, even though the governor said he was not concerned about a weaker zloty. As our EUR/CHF franc-cap test showed, a central bank’s tolerance for its currency can reset a model’s range overnight.

“Our house view is for status quo until at least 2Q27. Against this backdrop, the policy outlook remains supportive for the currency and should help to keep EUR/PLN biased towards the 4.30 handle.”

— Kenneth Broux and colleagues, Societe Generale (FXStreet, September 9, 2026)

What would invalidate this call

The base case to 4.40 breaks if ANY ONE of these four signals fires:

• The MPC raises the reference rate above 3.75% on October 7 or November 4, or the statement drops its hold language in favour of a tightening bias. The thesis depends on the NBP refusing to validate market hike pricing; a hike restores the zloty’s premium directly.
• The GUS September flash CPI prints above 3.5% year on year. A breach of the tolerance band would force the Council to respond to inflation the governor has so far attributed to fuel markets beyond the reach of monetary policy.
• The ECB holds on October 29 and signals its tightening is complete. That caps the gap at 125bp and removes the euro-side push that has done half the work this year.
• EUR/PLN posts a weekly close below 4.2982. That level is the August 6 swing low; losing it would mean the post-July range has failed and the market has chosen carry over guidance.

What to watch next

GUS follows the August flash with its final CPI reading this month and the September flash estimate at the end of the month; a September print at or below 3.4% supports the hold narrative. The MPC meets on October 6–7 and November 3–4, according to the NBP’s 2026 calendar as reported by PAP Biznes, although September’s meeting ran a week later than first scheduled. The ECB decides on October 29. On the chart, a daily fixing above 4.3465 would take out the 2026 high and expose 4.3802, while the 50-day average at 4.3158 is the first test of the bull case. Readers tracking the Nordic legs of the same ECB story can compare our EUR/SEK Riksbank hike-signal call.

FAQ

What is the EUR/PLN forecast for November 2026?

The base case is 4.40 by November 4, 2026, from a spot rate of 4.3449 on September 15. The bull case is 4.43 if the ECB hikes again on October 29, and the bear case is 4.28 if the NBP turns hawkish. The target rests on the NBP–ECB policy gap shrinking to 125bp and on markets unwinding NBP hike pricing that the governor has pushed back against.

Why is the Polish zloty weaker against the euro in 2026?

The zloty has lost its carry cushion. The NBP cut its reference rate to 3.75% in March and has held since, while the ECB has hiked twice to 2.50%. The policy gap has fallen from 200bp to 125bp, and the NBP fixing has risen 2.9% since January 2. The governor’s dovish July press conference pushed EUR/PLN to a 2026 high of 4.3465 the following day.

Will the National Bank of Poland raise interest rates in 2026?

The NBP governor does not expect to. In ING’s account of his September 10 press conference, Glapiński said rates would, in his personal view, stay unchanged until the first half of 2027, while allowing that a hike within a year was possible but highly uncertain. Markets price 75bp to 85bp of tightening. Societe Generale’s house view is also no change until at least the second quarter of 2027.

What level would invalidate the bullish EUR/PLN view?

A weekly close below 4.2982, the August 6, 2026 NBP fixing and the lowest print since August began. Below that, the post-July range fails and the 200-day moving average near 4.26 becomes the next reference. An NBP hike, a September CPI flash above 3.5%, or an ECB signal that it has finished tightening would also break the call before price confirms it.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.