NZD/CAD to 0.7923 by December 9: the 2-year yield case

New Zealand dollar/Canadian dollar (NZD/CAD) reaches 0.7923 by December 9, 2026 in the base case, 0.8205 in the bull case and 0.7870 in the bear case. The base case retests the January 2, 2026 low if the 2-year yield stays above 3.11% into a decision with no new Monetary Policy Report.

The Bank of Canada daily average was 0.8005 on October 9, 2026, down from 0.8098 on September 2, and the 2-year yield was 3.24% on October 8, up from 3.11%.

Key Levels:

• Asset: NZD/CAD 0.8005 — Bank of Canada daily average, series FXNZDCAD, October 9, 2026
• Base case target: 0.7923 by December 9, 2026 — January 2, 2026 low in that series
• Bull case target: 0.8205 — July 15, 2026 average, if the 2-year yield falls through 3.11%
• Bear case target: 0.7870 — November 19, 2025 sample low
• Major support: 0.7971 — October 5, 2026 low since the September 2 decision
• Major resistance: 0.8143 — September 4, 2026 high since that decision
• Invalidation level: last business-day average of any week above 0.8143

How the December 9 levels were fixed

Spot, the 2026 extremes and the three targets come from Bank of Canada Valet series FXNZDCAD, the daily average of the New Zealand dollar in Canadian dollars, from October 1, 2025 to October 9, 2026 (256 days). Pulled on October 10, 2026, the file did not yet include that day. The 20-day mean starts on September 11 and the 60-day mean on July 15, both ending October 9. Yields are BD.CDN.2YR.DQ.YLD and BD.CDN.10YR.DQ.YLD. The overnight target, V39079, is 2.25% on every recorded day from January 1 to October 8, 2026. The horizon is December 9 at 09:45 Eastern Time (ET). These averages are not dealing rates.

Related:USD/THB to 34.00 by October 28: the BOT policy hold

Where the cross and the Canadian curve sit

Sources: FXNZDCAD, latest October 9, 2026; yields and V39079, latest October 8, 2026. Cross window: October 1, 2025 to October 9, 2026. Yield window: July 1 to October 8, 2026. The September 2 press release puts the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

NZD/CAD is the Bank of Canada's daily average of the New Zealand dollar in Canadian dollars, series FXNZDCAD. On October 9, 2026 that average was 0.8005, against 0.8098 on September 2, a fall of 0.0093. The 2026 high is 0.8284 on August 4 and the 2026 low is 0.7923 on January 2. In 256 averages from October 1, 2025 to October 9, 2026, the low was 0.7870 on November 19, 2025, and 65 readings, 25.4%, were at or below 0.8005. The 20-day mean is 0.8010 and the 60-day mean is 0.8127. The base case of 0.7923 by December 9 is the January low, 0.0082 under the latest reading. The bull case, 0.8205, is the July 15 average. The bear case, 0.7870, is the November 19, 2025 low. A last business-day reading of any week above 0.8143, the September 4 high since the hold, retires the base case.

"Since our last decision, inflation and growth in Canada have evolved broadly as forecast. Against that background we decided to leave the policy rate unchanged. However, the upside risks to inflation have increased, while new tariffs make growth prospects more uncertain."

— Tiff Macklem, Governor, Bank of Canada (opening statement, September 2, 2026)

Why a higher 2-year yield points at 0.7923

The December 9, 2026 Bank of Canada announcement sets the overnight target at 09:45 Eastern Time and does not include a Monetary Policy Report. The 2026 schedule attaches the report to January, April, July and October, and the events calendar lists October 28, also at 09:45 Eastern Time, as the announcement that carries it. December 9 is an announcement only. On September 2 the Bank held the target at 2.25%. From that day to October 8 the 2-year yield rose from 3.11% to 3.24%, and from July 15 it rose from 2.82% to 3.24%, while series V39079 stayed at 2.25% from January 1 through October 8. The base case takes that mix to December 9 and looks for a retest of 0.7923. It does not need a new projection on the day. An October 28 cut, or a 2-year yield back at 3.11% or below, retires it.

The September 2 deliberations say yields moved up on "expectations that central bank policy rates would need to increase to restrain inflation," and, on the consumer price index, that "if higher energy prices did spill over into other components of the CPI, members agreed that it could require a monetary policy response to prevent broad-based inflation from setting in." The press release is also the opposing case: gross domestic product (GDP) up by 3.3% in the second quarter, unemployment at 6.4% in July, and inflation excluding gasoline at 2.2%. The 2-year peak since July was 3.40% on September 23, above the latest print of 3.24%.

What a hold without a new report misses

There is no single yield-to-price ratio to extend: 42 basis points lined up with a fall of 0.0200, and the next 13 with a fall of 0.0093. The base case only needs the 2-year yield above 3.11% while price covers the last 0.0082. October 28 can cancel that path, because it publishes the projection December 9 will not. From August 4 to October 9 the cross fell 0.0279 with the target unchanged. This note dates no New Zealand policy meeting, so a shock on that leg would not appear in V39079.

"Monetary policy can influence demand across the economy—including demand for housing. But it is a blunt tool. We set one interest rate for the whole economy. We cannot set one rate for housing and another for everything else."

— Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada (speech in Victoria, October 1, 2026)

What would invalidate this call

The base case to 0.7923 by December 9 breaks if any one of these four observations prints:

• The last business-day reading of any week in FXNZDCAD is above 0.8143. That is the September 4 high since the hold. An earlier day in the week does not count.
• BD.CDN.2YR.DQ.YLD prints at or below 3.11% before December 9. That is the September 2 yield. Without it, the curve leg is gone.
• The October 28 decision sets the overnight target below 2.25%. A cut is the path the bull case, at 0.8205, already describes.
• The October 28 text says upside risks to inflation have diminished. The September 2 statement said those risks had increased. Dropping that judgement removes the hold-bias leg.

What to watch before December 9

The events calendar sets the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations for October 19, 2026 at 11:30 ET. October 28 at 09:45 ET carries the Monetary Policy Report and is not this horizon. November 9 is the Market Participants Survey at 10:30 ET, November 10 the October deliberations at 13:30 ET, and November 24 a Tiff Macklem speech to the Economic Club of Canada. December 9, at 09:45 ET, is the announcement in this call.

Separate notes, on other dates, are not this call: the GBP/CAD path into November 5, the EUR/CAD path into October 29 and the NZD/USD path into October 28. The report months are fixed in the 2026 schedule.

TL;DR

NZD/CAD reaches 0.7923 by December 9, 2026 in the base case, 0.8205 if the July 15 average is retraced, and 0.7870 if the November 19, 2025 low gives way. The Bank of Canada daily average was 0.8005 on October 9, down from 0.8098 on September 2, while the 2-year yield rose from 3.11% to 3.24% by October 8. December 9 is an announcement at 09:45 Eastern Time, with no new Monetary Policy Report, and the overnight target is still 2.25%. A week's last business-day average above 0.8143, a 2-year yield at or below 3.11%, or an October 28 cut below 2.25% ends the call.

FAQ

What is the NZD/CAD base case into December 9, 2026?

The base case is 0.7923, the January 2, 2026 low in series FXNZDCAD, against 0.8005 on October 9. The bull case is 0.8205, the July 15 average, and the bear case is 0.7870, the November 19, 2025 low. December 9 is the 09:45 Eastern Time announcement, and the 2026 schedule attaches no Monetary Policy Report to it. The gap from 0.8005 to 0.7923 is 0.0082.

Why is the horizon December 9 rather than October 28?

The October 28, 2026 announcement includes the Monetary Policy Report, at 09:45 Eastern Time. December 9 is the next announcement, at the same hour, and is listed as a rate decision only. The 2026 schedule places the report in January, April, July and October. This call uses December 9 because 0.7923 is a prior low, not a new projection.

What level invalidates the NZD/CAD call?

The price test is the last business-day FXNZDCAD reading of any week above 0.8143, the September 4 high since the September 2 hold. An earlier day in the week does not qualify. The call also fails if the 2-year yield prints at or below 3.11% before December 9, if October 28 cuts the overnight target below 2.25%, or if that text says upside inflation risks have diminished.

What did the Bank of Canada decide on September 2, 2026?

The Bank held the overnight target at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Second-quarter GDP was up by 3.3%, unemployment was 6.4% in July, and inflation excluding gasoline was 2.2%. Governor Tiff Macklem said upside risks to inflation had increased. The release named October 28, 2026 as the next decision, with the report.

Where does the 0.7923 target come from?

It is the January 2, 2026 print in series FXNZDCAD, the low of calendar 2026 in that file, not a fitted forecast. The October 9 average of 0.8005 sits 0.0082 above it, and the October 5 low since the hold was 0.7971. The bull case, 0.8205, is the July 15 print. The bear case, 0.7870, is the November 19, 2025 print.

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