Feeder cattle to 343.925 cents by November 20, 2026

January 2027 feeder cattle reaches 343.925 cents per pound by November 20, 2026 in the base case, 344.425 in the bull case and 324.00 in the bear case. The base case is the November settlement on the Monday, October 19 board, a gap of 4.000 cents.

Feeder cattle, sold into the yard rather than as a finished steer, settled at 339.925 cents per pound for January on Monday, October 19, up 1.650, on the USDA AMS sheet. August placements were 1,617,000 head, 91 percent of a year earlier, the lowest August since 1996. NASS released that count on September 18. The call breaks if any one of four signals fires, listed below.

Key Levels:

• Feeder cattle: January 2027 at 339.925 cents per pound — CME settlement, Monday, October 19, 2026, USDA AMS PM Summary
• Base case target: 343.925 by November 20, 2026 — that sheet’s November settlement
• Bull case target: 344.425 — that sheet’s October settlement, if October placements are at or below 91 percent of a year earlier
• Bear case target: 324.00 — Oklahoma direct, week ending October 16, 58 head of 875-pound Medium and Large 1 steers, if placements exceed 91 percent
• Major support: 334.83 — same report, 180 head of 825-pound Medium and Large 1-2 steers
• Major resistance: 344.425 — the Monday October settlement
• Invalidation level: a daily January settlement below 334.83

How the November 20 feeder reading was built

Two USDA AMS issues dated Monday, October 19, 2026 set the window. The PM block, labelled Monday, prints January 339.925, November 343.925 and October 344.425. The AM block, labelled Friday, prints 338.275, 341.900 and 343.625. Monday’s 1.650 plus 338.275 equals 339.925. CME’s site refused a direct fetch, so Tuesday, October 20 is unused.

Related:AEX to 1,160 by 29 October: the ECB hold case

Cash is the Oklahoma direct report for the week ending October 16. November at 343.925 is 2.925 above 341.00 for the 800-pound November delivery, so futures are read in cents per pound. The yard ledger is the September 18 Cattle on Feed release. The horizon is November 20, 2026, at 3:00 p.m. on the NASS release list. Beef supply is the October 9 WASDE. The market news desk uses that rule.

What Monday’s board and the September count show

January 2027 feeder cattle is the contract this note calls, and the base case is 343.925 cents per pound by November 20, 2026. The USDA AMS PM summary for Monday, October 19, 2026, prints January at 339.925, up 1.650, November at 343.925, up 2.025, and October at 344.425, up 0.800. January sits 4.000 cents under November and 4.500 cents under October. The base case says January closes that printed gap by the November 20 Cattle on Feed release. The bull case, 344.425, needs October placements at or below 91 percent of a year earlier. The bear case, 324.00, is the Oklahoma direct price on 58 head of 875-pound Medium and Large 1 steers for the week ending October 16. The same report put 180 head of November-delivery 800-pound steers at 341.00 per hundredweight, 1.075 above January.

Sources: USDA AMS PM Summary, October 19, 2026; Oklahoma direct, week ending October 16, 2026. Gap to January equals the print minus 339.925.

August placement bands were 320,000 head under 600 pounds, 240,000 at 600 to 699, 355,000 at 700 to 799, 387,000 at 800 to 899, 230,000 at 900 to 999 and 85,000 at 1,000 pounds or more. December corn on that sheet settled at 4.6525 dollars a bushel, down 0.0175. The December corn note keeps its own targets out of 343.925. The hard-red winter wheat call is a different grain contract and does not set 343.925.

“This is perhaps more surprising given poor forage conditions due to continuing drought. The most recent pasture and range conditions for Oklahoma show 51 percent in poor to very poor condition. Perhaps larger auction runs are coming yet this fall…or maybe the cattle just aren’t there.”

— Derrell S. Peel, livestock marketing specialist, Oklahoma State University Extension (Pro Farmer, October 13, 2026)

Why January is called to the November print

Pro Farmer, citing Peel’s October 13 note, reported Oklahoma auction volume since July 1 down 23.2 percent year over year, around 78,000 head, with only one week in the last 12 higher than a year earlier. Feeder prices were up roughly 5.5 percent to 6 percent since Labor Day.

A feeder-cattle placement is a head count of animals entering yards, not a forecast of the January settlement. NASS, on September 18, 2026, counted August placements at 1,617,000 head, 91 percent of a year earlier, the lowest August since the series began in 1996. Of those, 355,000 weighed 700 to 799 pounds and 387,000 weighed 800 to 899 pounds, together 742,000 head. Marketings were 1,519,000 head, 97 percent of a year earlier, also the lowest August since 1996. On September 1, yards of 1,000 head or more held 11,163,000 head, 101 percent of a year earlier. The summary rounds that stock to 11.2 million, up 1 percent. Other disappearance was 52,000 head. The on-feed stock rose 46,000 head from August 1. Placements fell harder than marketings, so the yard can look full while fewer feeder cattle arrive.

The October WASDE lowers 2026 beef production to 24,870 million pounds from 24,945 million in September, a cut of 75 million, against 26,071 million in 2025. Lower steer and heifer slaughter and lighter carcass weights more than offset higher cow slaughter. The 2027 column is 24,743 million pounds. Imports for 2026 are 6,347 million pounds, up from 6,262 million, on strength from Australia. Cattle price forecasts were unchanged for 2026 and 2027.

November can also fall to 339.925, which would not meet this call. January itself has to print 343.925. Direct steers were steady to 2.00 higher on 3,389 receipts, and the November-delivery 800-pound steer at 341.00 is only 1.075 above January.

Where a placement reading goes wrong

Cattle placed under 600 pounds in August, 320,000 head, are not the 800-pound steer priced in the direct book. NASS prints no days on feed. USDA cut beef production, left cattle price forecasts unchanged and raised imports. Monday’s 339.925 is one session above Friday’s 338.275. A 91 percent placement rate and a 101 percent stock can both be true.

“At the levels that we’re at today, we need the support. The quality of those animals coming across improves every year. We trade a lot of genetics across both borders… the quality of the product coming across will help us here on this side.”

— Scott Anderson, vice chairman of the policy division, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (Oklahoma Farm Report, October 18, 2026)

Anderson said crossings were running at two ports after almost two years. Shipments into New Mexico, Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma yards were resuming, outside the September 1 count of 11,163,000. November 20 is the first NASS look.

What would invalidate this call

The base case to 343.925 breaks if any one of these four signals prints.

• September placements above 91 percent of a year earlier, on October 23. NASS lists that release at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The placement hole would already be closing.
• A daily January settlement below 334.83 cents per pound. That is the direct average on 180 head of 825-pound Medium and Large 1-2 steers. The shelf would be gone.
• October placements above 91 percent of a year earlier, on November 20. That removes 344.425 and the placement leg under 343.925.
• A later 800-pound November-delivery direct average below 339.925. The last print was 341.00 on 180 head. Cash under January removes the premium.

What to watch into November 20

October 23, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time, is September placements on the NASS October calendar, set against 91 percent of a year earlier. November 10 at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time is the next WASDE on the USDA release list, and the horizon of the soybean oil note into the November 10 WASDE. None of its levels are used here. Watch whether the 75 million pound cut is extended and whether cattle price forecasts stay unchanged. November 20, at 3:00 p.m., is this horizon. January at 343.925 completes the base case. A print under 334.83 ends it.

TL;DR

January 2027 feeder cattle is called to 343.925 cents per pound by November 20, 2026, with 344.425 the bull case and 324.00 the bear case. The base case is the November settlement on the USDA AMS sheet for Monday, October 19, when January was 339.925, a gap of 4.000 cents. NASS counted August placements at 1,617,000 head, 91 percent of a year earlier and the lowest August since 1996. The call fails on a January settlement below 334.83 or on placements above 91 percent of a year earlier.

FAQ

What is the feeder cattle base case into November 20?

January 2027 feeder cattle is called to 343.925 cents per pound by November 20, 2026, the November settlement on the USDA AMS sheet for Monday, October 19, when January was 339.925, a gap of 4.000 cents. The bull case is 344.425 if October placements stay at or below 91 percent of a year earlier. The bear case is 324.00 if they do not.

What did the September Cattle on Feed report show?

NASS, on September 18, 2026, counted 11,163,000 head on feed on September 1 in lots of 1,000 head or more, 101 percent of a year earlier. August placements were 1,617,000 head, 91 percent of a year earlier, and marketings were 1,519,000, 97 percent. Both were the lowest August totals since 1996. Net placements were 1.57 million head.

Why is the call on January rather than November?

November feeder cattle settled at 343.925 on October 19, the base-case level. January at 339.925 still carries the discount past November 20, the Cattle on Feed release at 3:00 p.m. on the NASS list. October’s 344.425 is the bull case only if placements stay at or below 91 percent of a year earlier.

What price would prove this call wrong?

A daily January settlement below 334.83 cents per pound ends the call. That is the Oklahoma direct average on 180 head of 825-pound Medium and Large 1-2 steers for the week ending October 16, and it is 5.095 cents under 339.925. Placements above 91 percent of a year earlier, or an 800-pound November-delivery direct price below 339.925, end it as well.

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