Soybean oil to 68.57 cents by the 10 November WASDE

Soybean oil reaches 68.57 cents per pound by November 10, 2026 in the base case, 70.00 cents in the bull case and 66.30 cents in the bear case. That base case is halfway from the October 16 session price to the unchanged 70.00-cent season-average.

December 2026 soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) last printed 67.13 cents per pound on October 16, 2026, 2.87 cents under the 70.00-cent season-average the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) left unchanged on October 9 in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-676) (Yahoo Finance, ZLZ26.CBT). Ending stocks for 2026/27 were cut to 1,797 million pounds from 1,877 million, and biofuel use stayed at 17,800 million pounds. Four prints would kill the call.

Key Levels:

• Soybean oil: 67.13 cents, December 2026 CBOT (ZLZ26), October 16, 2026 — Yahoo Finance, range 66.50–67.45
• Base case target: 68.57 cents by November 10, 2026 — (67.13 + 70.00) / 2
• Bull case target: 70.00 cents if stocks fall below 1,797 million pounds or biofuel rises above 17,800 million
• Bear case target: 66.30 cents — October 15, 2026 low, if stocks rise or biofuel falls
• Major support: 66.30 cents — October 15, 2026 low, Yahoo Finance
• Major resistance: 70.08 cents — October 13, 2026 high
• Invalidation level: a daily close below 66.30 cents

How the 68.57-cent soybean oil case was measured

The contract is December 2026 soybean oil, not a bean futures target. The October 16 last, high and low are the Yahoo Finance quote for ZLZ26.CBT, marked closed at 18:19 UTC. Daily bars run from October 6 to October 16, 2026. CME Group blocked a direct read on October 17, so this is a redistributed session price, not a settlement bulletin. Volume is omitted because the quote and the daily history disagreed. Balances are WASDE-676 only, dated October 9, 2026, in million pounds for the US oil table. Positioning is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disaggregated futures-only report as of October 13, 2026.

Related:LME tin to $51,000 by the January 15, 2027 prompt date

October cut the stock and left 70 cents unchanged

The October 2026 WASDE soybean oil balance is the US table in million pounds. For 2026/27 the October column shows beginning stocks of 1,657 million pounds, production of 32,945 million, imports of 700 million and supply of 35,302 million. Domestic disappearance is 33,105 million, with biofuel at 17,800 million and food, feed and other industrial use at 15,305 million. Exports are 400 million, total use is 33,505 million and ending stocks are 1,797 million. The season-average price is 70.00 cents per pound, unchanged from September (WASDE-676, October 9, 2026). Versus September, production, biofuel, food use, exports and the price were flat. Beginning stocks fell 180 million pounds, imports rose 100 million and ending stocks fell 80 million. Stocks are 5.36 percent of use, from 5.60 percent in September. Biofuel is 53.8 percent of domestic use, from 48.8 percent in 2025/26.

Source: WASDE-676, October 9, 2026. The last two columns are 2026/27.

World ending stocks fell from 6.92 million metric tons to 6.85 million. Indonesia palm oil production is lowered 2.2 million tons, to 45 million.

"Soybean oil is the clear winner in the feedstock pool for BBD. Overall feedstock use for biofuels has climbed since the RVO release in March but remains below the consistently higher levels seen in 2024."

— Jacqui Fatka, Lead Economist, Farm Supply and Biofuels, CoBank (CoBank, October 7, 2026)

Why the gap to 70 cents closes only halfway

December soybean oil already rejected that season-average: 70.08 cents on October 13, a 66.30 low on October 15, then 67.13. A full move to 70.00 cents inside 25 days needs a demand change October did not print.

The base-case soybean oil price of 68.57 cents per pound is halfway between two published figures, not a fitted path. December 2026 soybean oil last traded at 67.13 cents on October 16, 2026, and the USDA 2026/27 season-average is 70.00 cents (Yahoo Finance; WASDE-676). The gap is 2.87 cents. Half is 1.435 cents, and 67.13 plus 1.435, to the nearest hundredth, is 68.57. No third figure enters the arithmetic. The bull case of 70.00 cents needs the November 10 release to cut ending stocks below 1,797 million pounds or to raise biofuel use above 17,800 million pounds, which would revive the failed 70.08 high. The bear case of 66.30 cents is the October 15 low, and a daily close under it retires the call. The horizon is that single release, so the base case takes only half the gap.

US crush stayed at 2,780 million bushels, so oil output was unchanged. The December corn crowded-long case and the hard-red-winter wheat case are separate Market News calls. CFTC open interest was 565,878 on October 13, up 16,221. Managed-money longs were 114,489 and shorts 26,517, a net long of 87,972, down 5,546 on the week. Longs were 20.2 percent of open interest and shorts 4.7 percent, so that net long was already large when 70.08 failed (CFTC file).

Where a half-gap close goes wrong

Less Indonesian palm can pull soybean oil through 68.57 cents, or leave it lagging a palm premium. Thomas Mielke took the second view at the Malaysian Palm Oil Forum 2026. The Edge Malaysia reports he said "it is, in my opinion, a high probability" that soybean oil overtakes palm by production within the next six years. That is not November 10. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said it would propose, by the end of October 2026, a 100 percent reallocation of the 2025 exemption gap. This call does not treat that text as published. See the Gulf crude-supply case.

"The premium (of palm oil against soybean) should be in periods in which oil supplies are dropping, exports are dropping. And when we ask the question which countries will reduce oil imports, it would be the most price-sensitive markets. The most price-sensitive market has always been India. It’s not only the biggest importer, it’s also the most price-sensitive,"

— Thomas Mielke, editor and chief executive, ISTA Mielke GmbH (Oil World) (The Edge Malaysia, October 7, 2026)

What would invalidate this call

The base case to 68.57 cents breaks if any one of these four signals prints. Each is a November 10 table cell or a daily close in December soybean oil, and any one of them is enough on its own.

• Ending stocks above 1,797 million pounds. October's only tightening was the 80 million pound stock cut. A higher ending stock removes the balance-sheet reason for 68.57 cents.
• Biofuel use below 17,800 million pounds. Biofuel is 53.8 percent of domestic disappearance. Cutting it would be the demand revision October refused, and the 70.00-cent anchor would look stale.
• A season-average below 70.00 cents. The bull case and the top of the gap are that anchor. A lower official price means 68.57 cents used the wrong input.
• A daily close below 66.30 cents. That is the October 15 low. The post-report range is then broken, and the November table cannot repair the price call.

What to watch into the November 10 release

The release is November 10, 2026 at 12:00pm ET, the next 2026 date on the USDA calendar. Set ending stocks against 1,797 million pounds, biofuel against 17,800 million, exports against 400 million and the season-average against 70.00 cents. Lower stocks or higher biofuel favour 70.00 cents. The other three outcomes are disconfirmation. Indonesia at 45 million tons is the palm check, and the price band is 66.30 to 70.08 cents. The weekly CFTC report shows whether the 87,972-contract net long shrinks. If the EPA text appears before the release, it is a clue, not a USDA line. The call ends at the release.

TL;DR

December 2026 soybean oil last traded at 67.13 cents per pound on October 16, 2026. The base case is 68.57 cents by November 10, halfway to the 70.00-cent season-average WASDE-676 left unchanged. The bull case is 70.00 cents and the bear case is 66.30 cents. October cut 2026/27 ending stocks by 80 million pounds, to 1,797 million, and left biofuel use at 17,800 million pounds. A close below 66.30 cents, or a November table that raises stocks, cuts biofuel or marks the average under 70.00 cents, ends the call.

FAQ

What is the base-case soybean oil target into the November WASDE?

The base case is 68.57 cents per pound for December 2026 soybean oil by November 10, 2026. It is halfway from the October 16 last of 67.13 cents to the 70.00-cent season-average in WASDE-676. The bull case is 70.00 cents. The bear case is 66.30 cents. This is one release, not a soybean futures target.

What did the October WASDE change in the US soybean oil balance?

WASDE-676, out on October 9, 2026, left production at 32,945 million pounds, biofuel at 17,800 million and the price at 70.00 cents. Beginning stocks fell from 1,837 million pounds to 1,657 million, and imports rose from 600 million to 700 million. Ending stocks fell from 1,877 million to 1,797 million. Demand did not move.

Why is the call not simply USDA's 70-cent price?

Those 70.00 cents are a 2026/27 season-average, not a November 10 futures print. ZLZ26 reached 70.08 cents on October 13 and closed at 67.13 on October 16. October did not raise biofuel use. The base case takes half the gap, at 68.57 cents, and 70.00 cents is only the bull case.

What price would invalidate this soybean oil call?

A daily close below 66.30 cents per pound kills the call on price. That low printed on October 15, 2026 in December soybean oil. The call also fails if November 10 puts ending stocks above 1,797 million pounds, cuts biofuel below 17,800 million pounds, or cuts the season-average below 70.00 cents. Any one of the four is enough.

How does palm oil enter a soybean oil call?

The oils share buyers. WASDE-676 cut Indonesia palm output by 2.2 million tons, to 45 million, and put global palm stocks at the lowest since 2017/18. Soybean oil can rise with that, or lag a palm premium. Thomas Mielke said India steps back when supplies and exports fall. Palm is a check, not the instrument.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.