Lean hogs to 65.00 cents by the 10 November USDA WASDE

December 2026 lean hogs reach 65.00 cents per pound by November 10, 2026 in the base case, 69.00 cents in the bull case and 63.00 cents in the bear case.

The base case starts from the CME December 2026 settlement of 66.925 cents per pound on October 16, 2026, up 0.350 cent on an FXEmpire quote at 18:04 UTC. The horizon is the November 10, 2026 WASDE at 12:00pm ET. The mechanism is the October 9 price cut on a weak cutout, after lower production. The call breaks if any one of four signals fires, starting with a daily close above 68.325 cents.

Key Levels:

• Asset: December 2026 lean hogs at 66.925 cents — FXEmpire CME quote, October 16, 2026
• Base case target: 65.00 cents by November 10, 2026 — 66.925 less 1.950 cents, from 64.975
• Bull case target: 69.00 cents if the cutout stabilises and price retakes the October 12 high
• Bear case target: 63.00 cents if the cutout is under $79.45 and November cuts the fourth-quarter price — from 63.025
• Major support: 66.000 cents — October 14 low, The Pig Site, citing Reuters
• Major resistance: 67.375 cents — October 16 high on the same FXEmpire quote
• Invalidation level: a daily close above 68.325 cents — October 12 settlement, Walsh Trading

How the 66.925-cent print was taken

The spot is the December 2026 Chicago Mercantile Exchange lean hog future. The quote is FXEmpire’s page, timestamped October 16, 2026 at 18:04 UTC, because CME Group’s settlement file returned an access error. The window is WASDE-676 on October 9 through that session. The horizon is November 10. Footnote 3 makes the USDA hog price a live-equivalent series, with no dressing percentage, so it is not converted into cents per pound.

Related:Soybean oil to 68.57 cents by the 10 November WASDE

What WASDE-676 changed for pork

WASDE-676 of October 9, 2026 cut pork production on slower slaughter and lighter dressed weights. The September 24 Hogs and Pigs report showed a lower June-August pig crop and lower September-November farrowing intentions, which supports less slaughter in the first half of 2027. Exports were cut on weaker Western Hemisphere shipments, and hog price forecasts were cut through the first half of 2027 on a weak cutout.

Source: FXEmpire quote of CME lean hog futures, October 16, 2026, 18:04 UTC.

December 2026 lean hog futures are a Chicago Mercantile Exchange carcass contract, quoted in cents per pound, and they are the instrument in this call. On the October 16, 2026 session, FXEmpire’s CME quote, timestamped 18:04 UTC, showed December at 66.925 cents, up 0.350 cent, with a session high of 67.375 and a low of 66.300. Volume was 21,127 contracts and open interest was 152,138. February 2027 was 69.225 cents on the same screen and June 2027 was 89.225 cents, so the curve rose 2.300 cents to February and 22.300 cents to June. Separately, WASDE-676 on October 9 put the fourth-quarter 2026 price for barrows and gilts at $55.00 per hundredweight. Footnote 3 defines that series as the National Daily Direct Producer Sold net price on a live-equivalent basis. The $55.00 figure is not a futures target. On that same series the third quarter of 2026 was $67.86 and the fourth quarter of 2025 was $64.87.

The quarterly table puts 2026 pork production at 27,621 million pounds, 150 million under September’s 27,771 million, and 2027 at 27,825 million against 28,070 million. Fourth-quarter production is 7,245 million pounds. Exports for 2026 are 7,050 million pounds, down from 7,110 million. Per-capita use is 49.2 pounds, against 49.3 in 2025.

"Even though we're running pork production slightly under last year now, the concern still remains firmly focused on demand."

— Rich Nelson, chief strategist, Allendale (The Pig Site, citing Reuters, October 15, 2026)

Why the base case is 65.00 cents, not the cash quote

The base case is a December lean hog settlement of 65.00 cents per pound by the November 10, 2026 release of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, not a forecast of the cash hog price. It starts from the October 16 settlement of 66.925 cents. On Wednesday, October 14, that contract fell 1.950 cents and settled at 66.075, with a low of 66.000, as the wholesale pork cutout fell $1.23 to $79.45 per hundredweight. The Pig Site, citing Reuters and USDA data, described that cutout as the lowest since April 2023 and 23% under a year earlier. Subtracting the 1.950-cent break from Friday’s 66.925 gives 64.975 cents, rounded here to 65.00. October’s report cut 2026 commercial pork production by 150 million pounds, to 27,621 million, and still lowered hog price forecasts on cutout weakness. A smaller slaughter pace did not lift the official price. The bull case, 69.00 cents, needs a retrace of the October 12 high.

The opposing case is the 2027 supply cut, with December already 22.300 cents under June. If the cutout stops falling, shorts can cover towards 69.00 cents. That needs Nelson’s energy-cost point to be wrong, so the West Texas Intermediate path is the channel, not the hog target.

What the model misses

On October 9 USDA cut pork production and the hog price forecast together, so a smaller kill was not a reason to mark prices up. The September 24 pig crop can show up after November 10. DiCostanzo’s Lean Hog Index of 77.61 is dated October 8, and his cutout of 82.23 is dated October 9, so neither is a same-day basis to 66.925. The same book cut the corn farm price from $4.80 to $4.70 a bushel. That feed balance is the December corn note.

"There are still large short positions in the futures market so any change in the sentiment for the cash market will likely pressure funds to cover some of their shorts."

— Ben DiCostanzo, senior livestock analyst, Walsh Trading (Swineweb, October 13, 2026)

What would invalidate this call

The base case to 65.00 cents breaks if any one of these four signals fires:

• A daily close above 68.325 cents. That is the October 12 settlement, before the break to 66.000. A close back through it means the breakdown has failed.
• November 10 puts the fourth-quarter barrows-and-gilts price above $55.00 per hundredweight. A higher live-equivalent forecast removes that leg.
• The pork cutout prints at or above $82.23 per hundredweight before November 10. That October 9 index sat above the later $79.45 print. A reclaim reverses the cash break.
• December settles above February. February was 2.300 cents over December on October 16. An inversion means the front contract is being squeezed.

What to watch into November 10

The USDA WASDE calendar still lists November 10, 2026, at 12:00pm ET. The benchmark is WASDE-676. Watch December against 66.000, 67.375 and 68.325, the February premium, and the cutout against $79.45 and $82.23. FXEmpire puts expiration at December 14, 2026, after the release. Corn from that report is on the market-news desk.

TL;DR

December 2026 lean hogs reach 65.00 cents per pound by November 10, 2026 in the base case, 69.00 in the bull case and 63.00 in the bear case. The anchor is the October 16 CME settlement of 66.925 cents, up 0.350 cent, on the FXEmpire quote. WASDE-676 cut 2026 pork production by 150 million pounds, to 27,621 million, and still put the fourth-quarter barrows-and-gilts price at $55.00 per hundredweight, live equivalent, against $67.86 in the third quarter. A daily close above 68.325 cents invalidates the call.

FAQ

Where do December lean hogs settle by November 10?

The base case is 65.00 cents per pound in December 2026 CME lean hogs by the November 10, 2026 WASDE, from an October 16 settlement of 66.925 cents. The bull case is 69.00 cents if the cutout stabilises. The bear case is 63.00 cents if the cutout prints under $79.45 and the fourth-quarter price is cut again. A daily close above 68.325 cents ends the call.

Which futures contract is this call using?

It uses the December 2026 CME lean hog future. FXEmpire showed it at 66.925 cents per pound on October 16, 2026 at 18:04 UTC, up 0.350 cent, on volume of 21,127 and open interest of 152,138. February 2027 was 69.225 cents and June 2027 was 89.225 cents. FXEmpire lists expiration as December 14, 2026, after the WASDE.

Why is the USDA figure of $55 not the futures target?

WASDE-676 prints $55.00 per hundredweight for fourth-quarter 2026 barrows and gilts. Footnote 3 defines that as the National Daily Direct Producer Sold net price, live equivalent. Futures are a carcass price, and no dressing percentage is printed, so $55.00 is not turned into a futures level. On that series the step down is from $67.86 in the third quarter of 2026.

What would prove this lean hog call wrong?

Any one of four prints is enough. A daily close above 68.325 cents breaks the price structure. A fourth-quarter barrows-and-gilts price above $55.00 per hundredweight on November 10 breaks the forecast leg. A pork cutout at or above $82.23 per hundredweight breaks the cash leg. December settling above February would mean the front month is being squeezed.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.