CSI 300 to 4,176.06 on an unchanged loan prime rate

The CSI 300 Index (CSI 300) reaches 4,176.06 by November 20, 2026 in the base case, 4,310.28 in the bull case and 3,773.40 in the bear case. Halfway between the October 8 and October 29 closes is that base case if the next Loan Prime Rate fixing leaves both tenors at 3.0% and 3.5%.

China Securities Index Co. printed the official October 29, 2026 close at 4,041.84, a year-to-date decline of 12.70% and 268.44 points under the October 8 close of 4,310.28. On October 20, 2026 the People's Bank of China, through the National Interbank Funding Center, left both the one-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.0% and the over-five-year mortgage rate at 3.5% that day.

Key Levels:

• CSI 300: 4,041.84 on October 29, 2026 — China Securities Index Co. daily report, code 000300
• Base case target: 4,176.06 by November 20, 2026 — halfway from 4,041.84 to the October 8 close of 4,310.28 if both LPR tenors stay at the October 20 print
• Bull case target: 4,310.28 — October 8 close if either LPR tenor is set lower than the October 20 print
• Bear case target: 3,773.40 — October 29 close minus the 268.44-point drop from October 8
• Major support: 4,030.23 — October 29 session low
• Major resistance: 4,075.47, then 4,310.28 — October 29 high, then the October 8 close
• Invalidation level: a daily close below 4,030.23 — loss of the October 29 session low

How the CSI 300 levels and the LPR date were set

Prices come from the China Securities Index Co. daily reports for October 29, 2026 and October 8, 2026. The English factsheet of September 30, 2026 defines the index as the 300 largest and most liquid A-shares. The October 30 report was still absent from the vendor path, so the spot is the October 29 close of 4,041.84. The horizon follows the PBOC English LPR page: quotes on the 20th of each month, postponed when that day is a holiday, from 20 banks in steps of 0.05 percentage points. The Chinese LPR index shows the latest notice on October 20, 2026. The State Council notice of November 4, 2025 leaves November unmarked, and November 20, 2026 is a Friday.

Related:Jakarta Composite to 5,439.26: the BI-Rate hold case

What the October 29 close and the sector split show

The CSI 300 Index is the China Securities Index Co. benchmark of the 300 largest and most liquid A-share stocks, and the last settled close in that vendor's daily report is 4,041.84 on October 29, 2026. The same report shows a 1.03% decline on the day and a 12.70% decline for the year to date, with a session low of 4,030.23 and a session high of 4,075.47. Financials, at 22.77% of index weight, rose 1.03% on the day and 2.20% over one month, while information technology fell 4.47% on the day and 19.30% over one month. The base case of 4,176.06 is halfway between that close and the October 8, 2026 close of 4,310.28 if the November 20, 2026 Loan Prime Rate fixing leaves the one-year rate at 3.0% and the over-five-year rate at 3.5%.

Sources: China Securities Index Co. daily reports for October 29, 2026 and October 8, 2026, codes 000300, 000914, 000915 and 000916, including the October 8 close of 4,310.28.

Turnover on October 29 was 411.9 billion yuan. The same close-to-close arithmetic is used on the KOSPI halfway retracement on the Market News desk.

"Policymakers are comfortable with the nature of economic growth. As a result, either because they're consciously keeping it in reserve or because philosophically they don't believe in it, there's no urgency to use fiscal measures to promote large scale consumption."

— William Bratton, head of cash equity research for Asia Pacific, BNP Paribas (Bloomberg, via Moneycontrol)

Why a loan prime rate hold maps to 4,176.06

An unchanged Loan Prime Rate means the National Interbank Funding Center, under People's Bank of China authorisation, publishes the same one-year rate of 3.0% and the same over-five-year rate of 3.5% set out in the October 20, 2026 notice. Quoting banks submit figures before 9:00 a.m. on the 20th, postponed when that day is a holiday, in steps of 0.05 percentage points. November 20, 2026 is a Friday outside the State Council holiday list, so the calendar rule points to that morning. For the CSI 300, a hold removes a policy surprise over a window in which financials are already 22.77% of weight, up from 21.05% on October 8, while information technology has fallen from 21.06% to 19.12%. The 4,176.06 base case is the halfway repair of the 268.44-point drop between those two closes, on the same measured-move pattern as the Jakarta Composite hold case.

The one-year rate references floating-rate corporate loans and the over-five-year rate references mortgages, so a hold leaves both benchmarks where October 20 put them. The bull case at 4,310.28 is 6.64% above 4,041.84, and the bear case repeats the 268.44-point drop to 3,773.40. A close under the October 29 low ends the view, on the same shape as the Swiss Market Index hold case.

What the halfway measure leaves out

The midpoint contains earnings only as a risk. Bloomberg, carried by Moneycontrol on October 25, 2026, put the drawdown in Chinese equities at $3.5 trillion from a May peak and said 2026 earnings forecasts for MSCI China had fallen by over 4% since the end of March, with results missing by an average of 9%.

State buying is the other gap. The South China Morning Post reported on October 28, 2026 that state buyers had put as much as 170 billion yuan into the market in October. On October 27 the Post reported that Morgan Stanley looked for a further 10% to 15% decline before a trough, after a 20% drop from a June high.

"It is too early to conclude that the worst is over. The biggest concern remains profitability: China's strength in production and exports is not translating consistently into stronger domestic demand, pricing power and corporate earnings."

— Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research, Berenberg (Bloomberg, via Moneycontrol)

What would invalidate the base case

The base case to 4,176.06 by November 20, 2026 breaks if any one of these four signals prints:

• A daily close below 4,030.23. That October 29 session low sits 11.61 points under the 4,041.84 close, and a settlement beneath it removes the shelf under the retracement.
• Either LPR tenor on November 20 differs from 3.0% and 3.5%. A lower print is the bull path towards 4,310.28, and a higher print retires the hold.
• A daily close above 4,310.28 before November 20. That October 8 close is the bull target, so a settlement above it exceeds the partial retracement.
• The NIFC publishes on a day other than November 20. The date follows the 20th-of-the-month rule and the State Council list of November 4, 2025, so a later holiday notice would move the horizon with that Friday.

What to watch into the next fixing

The catalyst is the NIFC release on the morning of November 20, 2026, read against 3.0% and 3.5%. Before that morning the useful checks are a daily close against 4,030.23 and 4,075.47, and the next daily report's split between financials, information technology and communication services. Another communication-services drop on the scale of the October 29 move of 6.57% would use up much of the 134.22 points from 4,041.84 to 4,176.06. On that report financials carried a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.67 and information technology 31.18.

TL;DR

The CSI 300 base case is 4,176.06 by November 20, 2026, the bull case is 4,310.28 and the bear case is 3,773.40, if the Loan Prime Rate fixing leaves the one-year rate at 3.0% and the over-five-year rate at 3.5%. China Securities Index Co. printed the October 29 close at 4,041.84, down 12.70% for the year to date, and 4,176.06 is halfway back to the October 8 close of 4,310.28. A daily close below 4,030.23 retires the base case. Earnings misses tallied by Bloomberg on October 25 can overrun that tape measure.

FAQ

What is the CSI 300 base case into the next Loan Prime Rate fixing?

The base case is 4,176.06 by November 20, 2026, the bull case is 4,310.28 and the bear case is 3,773.40. China Securities Index Co. printed the October 29 close at 4,041.84, and 4,176.06 is halfway back to the October 8 close of 4,310.28 if both Loan Prime Rate tenors stay at 3.0% and 3.5%.

When is the next Loan Prime Rate announcement?

The next Loan Prime Rate announcement falls on November 20, 2026. Quoting banks submit on the 20th of each month, and a holiday postpones the release, as on June 22 after Dragon Boat. October 20, 2026 set the one-year rate at 3.0% and the over-five-year rate at 3.5%. November 20 is a Friday left unmarked on the State Council list of November 4, 2025.

What level would end the CSI 300 base case?

A daily close below 4,030.23 would end it. That is the October 29, 2026 session low, 11.61 points under the 4,041.84 close, and the shelf under the halfway move back towards 4,310.28. A settlement above 4,310.28 before November 20 would also retire the base case, as would an LPR print away from 3.0% and 3.5%.

Why does an unchanged loan prime rate matter for the CSI 300?

The one-year Loan Prime Rate benchmarks floating-rate corporate loans, and the over-five-year rate benchmarks mortgages. October 20, 2026 set them at 3.0% and 3.5%, in steps of 0.05 percentage points. An unchanged November 20 print would leave both benchmarks in place, with financials at 22.77% of the index and information technology down 19.30% over the month.

Where do the 4,176.06 and 3,773.40 figures come from?

Both figures are arithmetic on two China Securities Index Co. closes. October 8, 2026 closed at 4,310.28 and October 29 at 4,041.84, a gap of 268.44 points. Half of that gap added to 4,041.84 is 4,176.06 if the Loan Prime Rate is unchanged on November 20, and subtracting 268.44 points gives the bear case of 3,773.40.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.