TAIEX to 47,111.26 if the CBC discount rate is held

The TAIEX reaches 47,111.26 by December 17, 2026 in the base case, 48,625.83 in the bull case and 45,676.67 in the bear case. The base case retests the October 16 close if the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) leaves the discount rate at 2% on December 17.

The Taiwan Stock Exchange file shows the October 27, 2026 close at 46,096.23, 54.80 points above the October 22 close of 46,041.43. Focus Taiwan reported a 0.12% rise on turnover of NT$976.55 billion. Four signals below would break the path.

Key Levels:

• TAIEX: 46,096.23 — October 27, 2026 close, Taiwan Stock Exchange historical file
• Base case target: 47,111.26 by December 17, 2026 — October 16 close, if the discount rate stays at 2%
• Bull case target: 48,625.83 — October 14 close, if December also keeps the 2027 CPI forecast at 1.83%
• Bear case target: 45,676.67 — October 27 session low, if the Board lifts the discount rate
• Major support: 46,041.43 — October 22 close
• Major resistance: 46,585.45 — October 27 session high
• Invalidation level: a daily close below 45,676.67 — October 27 low

How the October closes and the September hold were read

Prices come from the Taiwan Stock Exchange page TAIEX Total Index Historical Data for October 2026, read on October 27, 2026. Policy comes from the Monetary Policy Decision of the Board Meeting of September 17, 2026 and the provisional schedule released December 18, 2025, which lists December 17 and a news conference after each meeting. December 17 is marked provisional, and the series is the cash index. Earnings multiples sit outside these pages.

Related:TOPIX to 4,000: the 1.25 percent hold case

What the tape and the September decision show

Sources: Taiwan Stock Exchange historical file, read October 27, 2026; Focus Taiwan, October 27, 2026; Central Bank decision, September 17, 2026. Secured refinancing is 2.375%, and 2.16% is core CPI.

The TAIEX is the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index, and the official close for October 27, 2026 was 46,096.23. The exchange file records an open of 46,211.20, a high of 46,585.45 and a low of 45,676.67 for that session. Focus Taiwan reported a rise of 54.80 points, or 0.12%, on turnover of NT$976.55 billion, measured from the October 22 close of 46,041.43. The October 6 close of 49,822.55 leaves the latest print 3,726.32 points, or 7.48%, lower. The October 16 close of 47,111.26 stands 1,015.03 points, or 2.20%, above 46,096.23, and that gap is the base case into December 17. On September 17, 2026 the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) kept the discount rate at 2%, secured refinancing at 2.375% and temporary accommodations at 4.25%, the rate setting the base case carries forward.

"We still have time to observe,"

— Yang Chin-long, Governor, Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) (Taipei Times)

Why a repeated hold maps to the October 16 close

The Bank put first-half growth at 14.15%, the second-half forecast at 9.09% and the full-year forecast at 11.48%, with 5.82% for next year. January-to-August CPI averaged 1.84% and core CPI 2.11%. The 2027 forecasts are 1.83% for CPI and 1.89% for core CPI. Excess reserves averaged above NT$52 billion from June to August, loans and investments grew 8.23% on average in the first seven months, and M2 averaged 6.60%.

A repeated hold maps to 47,111.26 because that figure is the Taiwan Stock Exchange close on October 16, 2026, the first settlement after the October 15 break that finished above 47,000. October 15 closed at 46,969.87, down 1,655.96 points, or 3.41%, from the October 14 close of 48,625.83, and the next session closed at 47,111.26. The October 22 close of 46,041.43 finished under that October 16 print. The September 17 decision left the discount rate at 2% beside a 2026 growth forecast of 11.48%, a 2027 growth forecast of 5.82% and a 2027 CPI forecast of 1.83%. The bull case of 48,625.83 is the October 14 close and also needs that 1.83% forecast kept. The bear case of 45,676.67 is the October 27 low, the level in view if the Board lifts the discount rate.

Taipei Times reported a 10th straight quarter at these rates, with two Board members dissenting, and placed the 2.03% and 2.16% forecasts above the Bank's 2% inflation watch level. The decision also lifted the second-home loan-to-value cap from 60% to 70% from September 18. Real-estate lending was 34.44% of total lending at the end of July, 3.17 percentage points under the June 2024 share of 37.61%. The New Taiwan dollar path into the same December meeting follows that Board date.

Where the rate-hold framework is thin

The September hold was already in force during the fall from 49,822.55 on October 6 to 46,041.43 on October 22. Focus Taiwan reported on October 20 that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing accounted for over 40% of market value and that foreign institutions sold a net NT$79.54 billion that day, with a month-to-date net sale of NT$662.07 billion. Those flow figures stop on October 20. The TOPIX hold case and the Swiss Market Index hold case use other dates and other closes.

"We maintain our view that the central bank will hike rates by 12.5bps to 2.125% at the December meeting."

— Ma Tieying, Senior Economist, DBS Group Research (DBS Group Research, September 18, 2026)

What would invalidate this path

The base case of 47,111.26 by December 17, 2026 breaks if any one of these four signals prints:

• The December 17 decision sets the discount rate above 2%. The base case is a repeated hold, so a higher rate hands the path to the bear level of 45,676.67.
• A daily close prints below 45,676.67. That print is the October 27 low, and a close through it ends the path.
• The December statement puts the 2027 CPI forecast at 2% or higher. September's release forecast 1.83%, and the bull case needs that 1.83% figure preserved.
• The Bank replaces December 17 with another meeting date. The horizon is the provisional schedule of December 18, 2025, so a new date moves the window.

What to watch into the December meeting

December 17, 2026 is the last date on the provisional schedule, with a news conference to follow. Set the communique against rates of 2%, 2.375% and 4.25%, and against the September growth and inflation forecasts. On the exchange file, 46,585.45 is still overhead, 47,111.26 is the base case and 48,625.83 is the bull case. A close under 45,676.67 ends the path. Related work sits on the Market News desk.

TL;DR

The TAIEX reaches 47,111.26 by December 17, 2026 in the base case, 48,625.83 in the bull case and 45,676.67 in the bear case. The Taiwan Stock Exchange close on October 27, 2026 was 46,096.23, up 54.80 points. The base case retests the October 16 close if the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) again leaves the discount rate at 2%, the setting kept on September 17 with a growth forecast of 11.48% and a 2027 CPI forecast of 1.83%. A discount rate above 2%, or a daily close below 45,676.67, breaks the path. Ma Tieying still looked for 2.125% on September 18.

FAQ

What official close is the TAIEX spot for this path?

The spot is 46,096.23, the October 27, 2026 close on the Taiwan Stock Exchange historical file. Focus Taiwan reported a rise of 54.80 points, or 0.12%, from the October 22 close of 46,041.43, on turnover of NT$976.55 billion. The gap from 46,096.23 to the base case of 47,111.26 is 1,015.03 points, or 2.20%.

What did the September Board decision do to the three policy rates?

On September 17, 2026 the Board kept the discount rate at 2%, secured refinancing at 2.375% and temporary accommodations at 4.25%. The release set 2026 GDP at 11.48% and 2027 GDP at 5.82%, and 2026 CPI and core CPI at 2.03% and 2.16%. Taipei Times reported a 10th straight quarter at these rates, with two members dissenting.

Why is 47,111.26 the base case rather than a round number?

47,111.26 is the Taiwan Stock Exchange close on October 16, 2026, the first settlement after October 15's close of 46,969.87 that finished back above 47,000. The October 22 close of 46,041.43 finished under it. The base case uses that published close, and 47,000 is a rounder threshold distinct from the print on the file.

What happens to the path if the December decision lifts the discount rate?

A discount rate above 2% on December 17 ends the base case, which needs the September 17 setting of 2% left in place. The level then in view is 45,676.67, the October 27 low. Ma Tieying of DBS Group Research wrote on September 18 that she still expected a 12.5 basis point rise, to 2.125%, at that meeting.

Which central-bank date fixes the horizon for these levels?

December 17, 2026 is the last date on the provisional schedule released December 18, 2025, beside March 19, June 18 and September 17. The September meeting produced the hold, and a news conference follows each meeting. A replacement date on that calendar would move the horizon, and 47,111.26 would be read against the new date.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.