Soybean meal to $340: the flat official-price case

Soybean meal settles at $340.00 a short ton by November 10, 2026 in the base case, $360.00 in the bull case and $320.00 in the bear case. The anchor is the US season-average price, unchanged at $340.00 per short ton in the October 9, 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). December 2026 Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean meal, symbol ZMZ26.CBT, last completed a daily close at $346.10 on October 23, 2026 on the Yahoo Finance chart. Four later signals would retire that path.

Key levels for December soybean meal sit below.

• Asset: Soybean meal, ZMZ26.CBT, last completed close $346.10 on October 23, 2026, Yahoo Finance chart, October 26, 2026.
• Base case target: $340.00 per short ton by November 10, 2026, the unchanged WASDE-676 US season-average.
• Bull case target: $360.00 per short ton if the November 10 WASDE raises the US price or cuts world ending stocks from 19.89 million metric tons.
• Bear case target: $320.00 per short ton if the CFTC net long falls from 206,000 contracts and Argentina's exports rise from 30.00 million metric tons.
• Nearby resistance: $350.70, the October 23, 2026 Yahoo daily high.
• Invalidation: a daily close above $368.80, the October 15, 2026 Yahoo high.

How the soybean meal levels were measured

The spot is the October 23, 2026 Yahoo Finance close for ZMZ26.CBT, retrieved at 07:11 UTC on October 26. The October 26 bar, last $338.40 after a $337.50 low on volume of 22,687, was still an incomplete Globex print. A CME Group settlements page returned HTTP 403 that morning. Price and supply are the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) WASDE-676 of October 9, 2026. Positioning is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) futures-only Commitments of Traders (COT) file, October 20 against October 13, on the legacy non-commercial line. The horizon is November 10, 2026, at 12:00pm ET.

Related:Rough rice holds $16.00 on the crop report

What the October balance sheet changed for meal

Soybean meal on the USDA domestic balance is the protein coproduct of the crush, and the official price is a season average in dollars per short ton. WASDE-676, approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board on October 9, 2026, sets the 2026/27 average at $340.00 per short ton in both the September and October columns, against $325.32 for 2025/26 and $300.33 for 2024/25. Production is 65,800 thousand short tons in both projection columns, exports are 22,700 thousand short tons in both, and ending stocks are 450 thousand short tons in both. October raises imports from 900 to 1,000 thousand short tons and domestic disappearance from 44,000 to 44,100, lifting total use from 66,700 to 66,800 while stocks stay at 450. The base case treats $340.00 as the level the December contract leans on because US stocks held steady.

Source: USDA WASDE-676, US soybean meal, October 9, 2026. September and October are the 2026/27 columns, flows are thousand short tons, and the average price is dollars per short ton.

The October narrative puts US soybean production at 4.56 billion bushels with crush unchanged, and it prices soybean meal at $340 per short ton. A separate soybeans call follows the bean, and a separate soybean oil call follows the oil, on the market-news desk.

Why $340 is the level the December contract is leaning on

From $346.10 on October 23 to $340.00 is $6.10 a short ton. Completed closes fell $13.70 from $359.80 on October 15, and by 07:11 UTC on October 26 the open bar was last at $338.40 after a $337.50 low. The base case is a settlement near $340.00 by November 10, 2026.

A non-commercial net long in soybean meal is the gap between reportable speculative longs and shorts in the CFTC futures-only COT file for the Chicago Board of Trade. The October 20, 2026 report shows longs of 246,993 contracts and shorts of 40,993, a net long of 206,000, with open interest of 635,401, down 8,907 from October 13. That week longs fell 5,833 and shorts rose 5,469, so the net long fell 11,302 from 217,302. At the file's contract size of 100 tons, 206,000 contracts equal 20.6 million tons, or 31.3 percent of the 65,800 thousand short tons of US October production if the CFTC ton matches the USDA short ton. Non-commercial longs were 38.9 percent of open interest and commercial shorts 69.2 percent, after those shorts fell 13,858 contracts. Domestic ending stocks stayed at 450 thousand short tons.

"Soybean meal price averaged $359 per ton from 2007 to the current month. The July corn and soybean meal prices were slightly below the long-run average. While soybean meal prices are expected to be similar to the long-run average, corn prices are expected to exceed $5 per bushel during the last quarter of 2026 and throughout 2027."

— Michael Langemeier, Center for Commercial Agriculture, Purdue University (farmdoc daily, September 11, 2026)

Langemeier's note is dated September 11, 2026, before WASDE-676. The $359 mean sits $19 above the official $340.00, the gap a $360.00 bull case would close if November 10 lifts the US season-average.

Where a flat official price can still miss

A season-average is a marketing-year mean, so December can trade away from $340.00 and still fit it. World meal production moved from 301.94 million metric tons to 302.40, ending stocks from 19.65 to 19.89, and Argentina's exports from 29.60 to 30.00.

"We find China has made limited progress toward self-sufficiency: soymeal inclusion rates have declined but not as sharply or smoothly as official figures suggest and China’s overall soybean import demand remains high. Consequently, impacts of China’s soybean meal reduction policy on major soybean exporters like the US and Brazil is likely to be small in the near term, though the possibility of longer-run demand adjustments cannot be ruled out."

— Jilang Qing, Ph.D. student in agricultural and consumer economics, University of Illinois, edited by Joe Janzen (farmdoc daily, December 30, 2025)

The paper is dated December 30, 2025. The $320.00 bear case needs Argentina's meal exports above 30.00 million metric tons and a net long below 206,000 contracts on a CFTC report dated on or before November 3, 2026.

What would invalidate the $340 path

The base case of a settlement at $340.00 by November 10, 2026 breaks if any one of these four signals prints.

• November 10 raises the US season-average soybean meal price above $340.00 per short ton. That hands the path to the $360.00 bull case.
• November 10 cuts world soybean meal ending stocks below 19.65 million metric tons. That reverses the October increase.
• ZMZ26.CBT posts a daily close above $368.80. That October 15 high is the invalidation level.
• The non-commercial net long rises back above 217,302 contracts on a report dated on or before November 3, 2026, after the trim of 11,302.

What to watch before the next balance sheet

The USDA calendar sets the next WASDE for November 10, 2026, at 12:00pm ET, with December 10, 2026 outside this horizon. Weigh a completed close against $340.00, $350.70 and $368.80. A lean hogs call shares that morning. Sources: the WASDE-676 PDF, the USDA calendar, the CFTC futures-only report and the Yahoo Finance chart for ZMZ26.CBT.

TL;DR

Soybean meal on the December 2026 CBOT future has a base case of $340.00 a short ton by November 10, 2026, a bull case of $360.00 and a bear case of $320.00. WASDE-676 on October 9 left the US season-average at $340.00 per short ton, with ending stocks at 450 thousand short tons. The last completed close was $346.10 on October 23. The CFTC non-commercial net long was 206,000 contracts on October 20, down 11,302 on the week. A daily close above $368.80 retires the path.

FAQ

What is the soybean meal base-case target?

The base case is a settlement at $340.00 per short ton in December 2026 CBOT soybean meal by November 10, 2026, the unchanged US season-average in the October 9 WASDE. ZMZ26.CBT last completed a Yahoo close at $346.10 on October 23, $6.10 above that average, and an incomplete October 26 print reached $337.50. The bull case is $360.00 and the bear case is $320.00.

Is the $340.00 level a futures settlement?

The $340.00 level is the USDA season-average soybean meal price for 2026/27, in dollars per short ton, on the domestic table of WASDE-676. It is a marketing-year mean, while December is one delivery month. The October 23 print of $346.10 is a Yahoo Finance daily close, and CME Group's settlements page returned HTTP 403 on October 26, 2026. The October 26 last of $338.40 was an open Globex bar at 07:11 UTC.

How large is the speculative position in soybean meal?

The CFTC futures-only report of October 20, 2026 shows CBOT soybean meal non-commercial longs of 246,993 contracts and shorts of 40,993, a net long of 206,000 on open interest of 635,401. At 100 tons a contract, that is 20.6 million tons, or 31.3 percent of 65,800 thousand short tons of US production if the tons match. The net long fell 11,302 contracts from October 13, and non-commercial longs were 38.9 percent of open interest.

What would invalidate a settle at $340.00?

A daily close in ZMZ26.CBT above $368.80, the October 15 high, invalidates the path from above. The path also breaks if November 10 raises the US season-average meal price above $340.00 per short ton or cuts world ending stocks below 19.65 million metric tons. A net long back above 217,302 contracts retires the positioning leg, with $360.00 as the bull case and $320.00 as the bear case.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.