Rough rice holds $16.00 on the crop report

Rough rice holds above $16.00 per hundredweight (cwt) into the November 10, 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), with a base case at $16.00/cwt, a bull case at $16.30/cwt and a bear case at $15.20/cwt. The hold leans on October's $15.20/cwt all-rice season-average farm price and ending stocks of 40.0 million cwt.

The futures reference is an early-October average above $16.00/cwt, the highest level since July 2024, in the Economic Research Service (ERS) Rice Outlook of October 14, 2026. It sits above that season-average and above the first-week-of-October Mid-South long-grain cash range of $14.75 to $15.00/cwt in the same monthly report. The stock draw, the long-grain cut and four retirement signals follow.

Key Levels:

• Asset: Rough rice, early-October futures average above $16.00/cwt — ERS Rice Outlook RCS-26I, October 14, 2026
• Base case target: $16.00/cwt into the November 10, 2026 WASDE — the threshold tied to the farm-price mark-up
• Bull case target: $16.30/cwt if the season-average rises another $0.30/cwt and ending stocks print below 40.0 million cwt
• Bear case target: $15.20/cwt — the October all-rice season-average farm price in WASDE-676
• Major support: $14.75/cwt — bottom of the early-October Mid-South long-grain cash range (ERS)
• Major resistance: $16.00/cwt — the early-October futures average, highest since July 2024 (ERS)
• Invalidation level: below $16.00/cwt into the November 10, 2026 WASDE

How the October sheets were read

Three sheets set the levels. WASDE-676 of October 9, 2026 is the balance sheet. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Production report that morning supplies area, yield and production. The September Agricultural Prices report supplies August prices received. The ERS Rice Outlook of October 14 adds the cash range and the futures average. The window runs from August 1, 2026, the marketing-year start, through October 14.

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CME Group's settlements page answered with an access block on October 25, 2026, so the futures figure is the ERS average, contract month unnamed. Stocks-to-use ratios are calculated from WASDE ending stocks and total use. The $16.30/cwt bull case adds the $0.30 September-to-October farm-price revision to the $16.00 threshold, and it is separate from any ERS forecast.

Where stocks, cash and the farm price sit

Total use stays at 226.0 million cwt, so the smaller crop moves stocks. Production is 157.7 million cwt against 206.7 million in 2025/26, and ending stocks are 40.0 million cwt, 31.5 percent under 58.4 million. Stocks-to-use is 17.7 percent against 23.8 percent a year earlier.

Sources: USDA WASDE-676, October 9, 2026. The -0.4 million cwt changes are the unrounded moves in Rice Outlook RCS-26I. World stock change is 198.50 minus 196.99.

Rough rice, for this horizon, means the US futures average the Economic Research Service placed above $16.00 per cwt in early October, and the test is the November 10, 2026 WASDE. WASDE-676 puts 2026/27 production at 157.7 million cwt, total use at 226.0 million cwt and ending stocks at 40.0 million cwt, down from 58.4 million cwt in 2025/26. The all-rice season-average farm price is $15.20 per cwt, up $0.30 from September's $14.90, and the long-grain season-average is $14.00 per cwt. NASS puts the yield at 7,668 pounds per acre. The base case keeps futures above $16.00 per cwt if that stock draw stays intact. The bull case of $16.30 per cwt adds the same $0.30 and needs stocks below 40.0 million cwt. The bear case of $15.20 per cwt is a fade to the season-average, a level inside the early-October Mid-South cash range of $14.75 to $15.00 per cwt.

"Meanwhile, in early October, rough rice futures averaged above $16.00 per cwt, the highest level since July 2024."

— Vidalina Abadam, Rice Outlook coordinator, USDA Economic Research Service (Rice Outlook, October 2026)

Why the hold runs through long-grain supply

Long-grain rice is the class carrying the October price mark. In WASDE-676 the all-rice season-average farm price rose $0.30 per cwt to $15.20 because the long-grain season-average rose $0.50 to $14.00, while medium- and short-grain rice stayed at $18.70 per cwt. NASS puts long-grain production at 103.245 million cwt, against 153.296 million in 2025, and ERS calls that crop the lowest since 1987/88. Ending stocks for the class are 21.1 million cwt, against 41.8 million a year earlier. Harvested area is 2.057 million acres, the lowest since 1972/73 on the ERS reading of NASS, with Arkansas long-grain area at 775,000 acres, the smallest since 1977/78. By October 4, NASS had 86 percent of US acreage harvested, 7 percentage points ahead of the five-year average, and ERS had California at 30 percent against a 40 percent five-year average.

August prices received show why the season-average sits under later cash. NASS has August all rice at $12.80/cwt and long grain at $10.70/cwt, on marketings of 6,330 thousand cwt, while ERS has early-October Mid-South cash at $14.75 to $15.00/cwt, up from $12.50/cwt at the start of August. Exports stay at 78.0 million cwt, and imports stay at a record 49.8 million cwt. The same November morning reprices the soybean oil balance and the cotton stocks case.

What a futures average above $16.00 leaves out

World milled ending stocks for 2026/27 rose to 198.50 million tonnes from 196.99 million, and world production eased to 533.08 million tonnes. India's export projection is 24.00 million tonnes, with ending stocks of 57.00 million. ERS still calls Indian 5 percent broken white rice the cheapest major-exporter quote, around $384 a tonne on October 9, up about $9 from $375. Buyers who treat the United States as the residual supplier can pull futures back toward the $15.20/cwt season-average.

The cushion over $16.00/cwt is unpublished and can change before November 10. California's October 1 rough-rice stocks of 2.65 million cwt, up 5 percent from 2.52 million, are a state print in the October 22 Rice Stocks report, beside US August 1 stocks of 50.041 million cwt in all positions. The hard-red-winter wheat case is the parallel where a foreign crop leads the screen.

"The results suggest that Vietnam’s rice quota alone is unlikely to significantly affect the United States."

— Kayode Ajewole, research agricultural economist, USDA Economic Research Service (ERR-366 summary, October 2026)

What would retire a hold above $16.00

The base case retires if any one of these four signals prints:

• The November 10 all-rice season-average farm price is $14.90/cwt or lower. That returns the mark to the September projection and gives back the increase ERS tied to futures above $16.00/cwt.
• November ending stocks print above 40.4 million cwt. That restores the September stock level October undercut and removes the draw under the hold.
• November yield prints above 7,690 pounds per acre. That was the September 1 yield, before the cut to 7,668 pounds, and it puts the lost production back on the sheet.
• Mid-South long-grain cash is at or below $12.50/cwt before November 10. That is the early-August level ERS marked as the start of the rally behind the $14.00 long-grain season-average.

A rough rice reading below $16.00/cwt is the price invalidation. The bull case of $16.30/cwt also needs stocks below 40.0 million cwt and a further $0.30 on the season-average, to $15.50/cwt. The bear case of $15.20/cwt is the October season-average itself if the futures premium fades and the four signals stay quiet.

What the calendar shows before the crop report

The USDA WASDE calendar lists November 10, 2026 at 12:00 pm Eastern Time, with NASS Crop Production the same morning and the next Rice Outlook on November 13. The NASS calendar has Crop Progress on October 26 and Agricultural Prices on October 30, the September cash print after August's $12.80/cwt. The horizon is that November 10 WASDE.

TL;DR

Rough rice holds above $16.00/cwt into the November 10, 2026 WASDE, bull case $16.30/cwt, bear case $15.20/cwt. ERS put early-October futures above $16.00/cwt, the highest level since July 2024. WASDE-676 marks ending stocks at 40.0 million cwt, 31.5 percent under 58.4 million a year earlier, and the season-average farm price at $15.20/cwt. The hold retires on a farm price of $14.90/cwt or lower, stocks above 40.4 million cwt, yield above 7,690 pounds per acre, or Mid-South cash back at $12.50/cwt.

FAQ

Where does the rough rice reference price for this horizon come from?

ERS, in the Rice Outlook of October 14, 2026, says rough rice futures averaged above $16.00 per cwt in early October, the highest level since July 2024. A CME settlements page answered with an access block on October 25, 2026, so the reading uses that average. August all-rice prices received were $12.80/cwt, and early-October Mid-South cash was $14.75 to $15.00/cwt.

What ending-stocks figure is the November WASDE actually testing?

The test is 40.0 million cwt of 2026/27 ending stocks in WASDE-676, under September's 40.4 million and under 58.4 million in 2025/26. Total use is unchanged at 226.0 million cwt. A November print above 40.4 million cwt retires the base case, and a print below 40.0 million cwt is the stock condition on the $16.30/cwt bull case.

Why does long-grain rice carry more of the price mark than medium grain?

The all-rice season-average rose to $15.20/cwt because long grain rose $0.50 to $14.00/cwt, while medium- and short-grain rice stayed at $18.70/cwt. Long-grain ending stocks fall from 41.8 million cwt to 21.1 million, against medium- and short-grain stocks of 16.3 million. August cash showed the same split: long grain at $10.70/cwt and medium grain at $18.90/cwt.

Which official release dates sit around the November 10 horizon?

The next WASDE is November 10, 2026, at 12:00 pm Eastern Time, with NASS Crop Production the same morning and the Rice Outlook on November 13. Crop Progress falls on October 26 and Agricultural Prices on October 30. That October 30 release carries September prices received, the cash print after August's $12.80/cwt all-rice figure and before the stock revision.

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