Cotton to 78 cents by 10 November 2026: stocks case

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Cotton No. 2 for December 2026 reaches 78.00 cents per pound by November 10, 2026 in the base case, 84.00 cents in the bull case and 75.50 cents in the bear case, after a heavier US stock sheet.

December cotton settled at 80.51 cents per pound on October 13, 2026, 3.51 cents above the 77-cent season-average upland farm price in the October 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The September high was 86.51 cents and the month closed at 78.52 cents. This note maps WASDE-676 onto the November 10 release and names the four prints that would kill the 78.00-cent base case.

Key Levels:

• Asset: Cotton, ICE December 2026, at 80.51 cents on October 13, 2026 — MarketWatch settlement, matched by CCFGroup
• Base case target: 78.00 cents by November 10, 2026 — near the September 30 close of 78.52 cents, 1 cent above the WASDE farm price
• Bull case target: 84.00 cents if November 10 cuts US ending stocks to 3.60 million bales or lower — October 13 second resistance
• Bear case target: 75.50 cents if November lifts US ending stocks above 4.00 million bales — first December support
• Major support: 77.05 cents — October 2, 2026 session low, MarketWatch
• Major resistance: 81.78 cents — October 9, 2026 session high
• Invalidation level: a December settlement above 82.40 cents — October 13 first resistance

How this cotton call was built

The balance sheet is WASDE-676, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) file released at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time on October 9, 2026. Figures are million 480-pound bales unless a price is stated, taken from the September and October columns. Prices run from the September high of 86.51 cents to the October 13 settlement of 80.51 cents, checked against the CCFGroup close. Harvest colour is the Plains Cotton Cooperative Association (PCCA) Cotton QuickTake of October 12. The horizon is only the next WASDE, on November 10, 2026. The farm price is a marketing-year average, not a futures print. International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) figures stay in tonnes.

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What WASDE-676 changed in the cotton sheet

PCCA's October 12 note says USDA raised the US crop when the trade had looked for a cut. The September and October columns are below.

Sources: USDA WASDE-676, October 9, 2026, US and world cotton tables. Time window: September versus October columns for 2026/27.

The October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report is USDA's monthly balance sheet for US and world cotton. WASDE-676, released at noon Eastern Time on October 9, 2026, raised 2026/27 US production by 2 per cent to 13.44 million 480-pound bales and yield from 776 to 790 pounds per harvested acre. Mill use stayed at 1.50 million bales and exports at 12.30 million, so ending stocks rose 6 per cent to 3.80 million bales and stocks-to-use moved from 26.1 per cent to 27.5 per cent. The upland farm price was cut by 1 cent to 77 cents per pound. World mill use rose only to 123.08 million, so use still exceeds production by 5.13 million bales. Brazil's crop rose from 18.50 million bales to 19.00 million and its exports from 15.50 million to 16.00 million.

"Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 75.50, 74.20, and 73.00 December, with resistance of 82.40, 84.00 and 85.30 December."

— Jack Scoville, market analyst, Price Futures Group (Price Futures Group, October 13, 2026)

Why 78 cents is the November 10 base case

From the September high of 86.51 cents to the October 13 settlement of 80.51 cents is 6.00 cents. On October 9 the contract hit 81.78 cents and closed at 80.54 cents. PCCA says the report day still finished 60 points higher. The base case fades that bounce.

ICE Cotton No. 2 for December 2026 is the benchmark US cotton futures contract. It settled at 80.51 cents on October 13, 2026, 3.51 cents above the 77-cent upland farm price in WASDE-676 and 2.51 cents above this desk's 78.00-cent base case for November 10. The Cotlook A Index was 91.25 cents on October 14, up 0.10 cent and 10.74 cents over December. ICAC's October 1 outlook put the Cotlook A midpoint at 80 cents, inside 65 to 99 cents, with consumption about 201,000 tonnes above production. PCCA reported 1,199 bales sold on The Seam that week at 75.88 cents, against a loan redemption rate of 58.92 cents. A base case of 78.00 cents drifts towards the farm price and the September 30 close of 78.52 cents. It fails on a settlement above 82.40 cents.

The opposing case is the crop, not the stock line. Scoville, citing USDA, put the crop at 33 per cent good to excellent, 23 per cent harvested and 74 per cent of bolls open. If classing shows Delta loss, the 790-pound yield gives way and 84.00 cents is the bull path. Oil can push the same way, the channel in the WTI supply note. October 9 also reset other crops, including the soybean balance.

What the stocks model misses

A 0.82 million bale rise in world ending stocks, from 69.86 million to 70.68 million, did not push December down. The contract rose from the September close of 78.52 cents to 80.51 cents. The September break, from 86.51 cents to 78.52 cents, was 7.99 cents. Treating 3.80 million US bales as a path to the 52-week low of 66.86 cents, against a MarketWatch high of 93.74 cents, overstates a small stock change.

Positioning is the other hole. PCCA said speculative selling met commercial buying into October 12. No Commodity Futures Trading Commission net-length figure is used, because the supplemental file was not re-pulled. If commercials are the bid between 77 and 80 cents, 78.00 cents is support rather than a destination. The rate backdrop is the Treasury-yield call.

"Cotton started 2026 priced for disappointment. Futures were below 70 cents per pound, hedge funds were heavily short, inventories were comfortable, and traders saw almost no reason to pay anyone for uncertainty... six months later, everything has changed."

— Dave Whitcomb, CFA, founder and head of research, Peak Trading Research (Cotlook, October 7, 2026)

What would invalidate this call

The base case of 78.00 cents by November 10, 2026 breaks if any one of these four signals fires. Each one is a USDA print or a December settlement.

• The November 10 WASDE puts US ending stocks at 3.60 million bales or lower. The bull case of 84.00 cents becomes the live path.
• December cotton settles above 82.40 cents per pound. That is the first resistance in the October 13 note, above the October 9 high of 81.78 cents.
• December cotton settles below 75.50 cents per pound before November 10. That sits under the October 2 low of 77.05 cents, so the bear case would already have arrived.
• Good to excellent falls below 25 per cent. The reading relayed on October 13 was 33 per cent. A drop through 25 per cent would put the 790-pound yield in doubt.

What to watch before November 10

The catalyst is the November 10, 2026 WASDE at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time. December 10 sits outside this horizon. Before then, weekly crop progress and export sales can move December. PCCA's latest colour was 165,100 bales of upland sold and 161,600 bales shipped. On the chart, 81.78 cents is the October 9 high and 77.05 cents is the October 2 low. Cotlook A at 91.25 cents is 10.74 cents over December. In the November tables, read Brazil's 16.00 million bale export line, then US yield against 790 pounds and US stocks against 3.80 million bales. Dates are on the USDA WASDE page. The October file is WASDE-676.

TL;DR

Cotton reaches 78.00 cents per pound by November 10, 2026 in the base case, 84.00 cents in the bull case and 75.50 cents in the bear case. WASDE-676 raised US 2026/27 ending stocks from 3.60 million bales to 3.80 million and cut the upland farm price by 1 cent to 77 cents, while world mill use of 123.08 million bales still exceeds production of 117.95 million. A settlement above 82.40 cents, or November stocks at 3.60 million bales or lower, kills it.

Questions the cotton call has to answer

What is the base-case cotton price on November 10, 2026?

ICE Cotton No. 2 for December 2026 is the US cotton futures benchmark. The base case is 78.00 cents by November 10, 2026. The bull case is 84.00 cents if US ending stocks fall to 3.60 million bales or lower. The bear case is 75.50 cents if stocks rise above the 4.00 million bale stock of 2024/25.

What did the October WASDE change for US cotton?

WASDE-676, released on October 9, 2026, raised 2026/27 US production from 13.20 million bales to 13.44 million and yield from 776 to 790 pounds. Mill use stayed at 1.50 million bales and exports at 12.30 million, so ending stocks rose from 3.60 million bales to 3.80 million. USDA cut the upland farm price from 78 cents to 77 cents per pound.

Why is the target below the current futures price?

December cotton settled at 80.51 cents on October 13 after a bounce from the October 2 low of 77.05 cents. The October report raised US stocks and cut the farm price to 77 cents. The 78.00-cent target gives back part of that bounce. The bear case stops at 75.50 cents because world use still exceeds production by 5.13 million bales.

What would prove this cotton call wrong?

The 78.00-cent base case is wrong if any one of four things happens by November 10, 2026. November stocks at 3.60 million bales or lower would remove the heavier US sheet. A December settlement above 82.40 cents would clear published resistance. A settlement below 75.50 cents would mean the bear case had already arrived. A good-to-excellent rating below 25 per cent, against 33 per cent on October 13, breaks the yield assumption.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.