FTSE 250 to 24,796: the priced Bank Rate step

The FTSE 250 reclaims 24,795.85 by the 5 November 2026 cash close in the base case, 24,839.00 if the Monetary Policy Committee holds Bank Rate at 3.75% or caps the path after a hike, and 24,453.36 if the November Monetary Policy Report endorses a further sequence of rises.

The mechanism is a quarter-point step most polled economists had already treated as the central outcome. The London Stock Exchange feed shows the FTSE 250 at 24,674.91 on the 16:35 trade of 3 November 2026, down 120.94 points, or 0.49%, from 24,795.85 the day before. Bank Rate is 3.75% after a six-to-three hold on 17 September 2026, and the next announcement is 5 November 2026, with the Monetary Policy Report. The levels and the four prints that break the base case follow.

Key Levels:

• FTSE 250: 24,674.91 at 16:35 on 3 November 2026 — London Stock Exchange feed, source FTSE
• Base case target: 24,795.85 at the 5 November 2026 cash close — the 2 November close
• Bull case target: 24,839.00 — the 3 November high, if Bank Rate stays at 3.75%
• Bear case target: 24,453.36 — 342.49 points under the 2 November finish
• Major support: 24,618.35 — the 3 November low
• Major resistance: 24,795.85 — the prior close
• Invalidation level: a cash close below 24,618.35 on 4 November or 5 November

How the 3 November close and the calendar were read

The spot is the London Stock Exchange capital index for the FTSE 250, code MCX, last traded at 24,674.91 on 3 November 2026 at 16:35, against a previous close of 24,795.85. The index-values record lists 251 constituents, a price/earnings ratio of 11.75, a dividend yield of 3.11% and net market capitalisation of £308,966 million. The decision date is the Bank of England calendar, which has Bank Rate at 3.75%, the next announcement on 5 November 2026 and the following date on 17 December 2026. Inflation is the Office for National Statistics September bulletin of 21 October 2026. The vote and the curve are from the minutes of the meeting ending 16 September 2026, and the economist count is the Reuters poll of 15 October 2026. That feed still showed the 3 November trade on the morning of 4 November.

Related:KOSDAQ to 674: the hike-bias case

What the last close, the vote and September prices show

Sources: London Stock Exchange FTSE 250 feed, 3 November 2026; Bank of England September 2026 minutes and dates page; Office for National Statistics inflation release, 21 October 2026; Reuters poll, 15 October 2026.

The FTSE 250 is the London Stock Exchange mid-cap index whose index-values record lists 251 constituents, a price/earnings ratio of 11.75 and a dividend yield of 3.11%, beside a 3 November 2026 close of 24,674.91. That close finished 120.94 points, or 0.49%, under the 2 November close of 24,795.85, and the session traded from 24,618.35 to 24,839.00. The base case uses 24,795.85 as the 5 November destination because the Bank of England calendar sets the next Bank Rate announcement that day, with the November Monetary Policy Report, and a Reuters poll of 12 to 14 October 2026 found 54 of 63 economists looking for a rise from 3.75% to 4%. The rise is 25 basis points. The index has to travel 120.94 points to match the prior close, the same distance it gave back on 3 November, with 24,839.00 the bull print and 24,453.36 the bear print.

"Mortgage rates in this country since the end of February when this conflict began have gone up by nearly 1%. So that's a substantial tightening of monetary conditions. And we take that into account."

— Andrew Bailey, Governor, Bank of England (Bank of England interview transcript, 17 September 2026)

Why a step to 4% can leave the 2 November close intact

On 17 September six members preferred to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% and three, Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill, preferred 4%. June and July had also left the rate unchanged. Reuters on 15 October called the expected move the first rise in more than three years, with 54 of 63 economists on that side. The September minutes had the curve near 4.9% by the end of 2027. The sterling side is in the policy-gap note.

A priced Bank Rate step is a move forecasters already treat as the central outcome, so the cash index reacts to the guidance around it rather than to the quarter-point alone. For the FTSE 250 that matters because these companies earn more of their revenue inside the United Kingdom than the largest London listings, and the September minutes recorded full, fast pass-through from overnight index swap rates into household and business lending rates. Those minutes put the quoted two-year fixed-rate mortgage around 95 basis points above its pre-conflict level. The base case therefore looks for a 5 November close at 24,795.85 if the Committee raises Bank Rate to 4% and the new report stays under the curve that peaked near 4.9% by the end of 2027. A hold at 3.75% is the bull case, at 24,839.00. A path of further rises is the bear case, at 24,453.36.

The opposing reading is that the hold is stale. Inflation has moved from the 3.1% August rate in the minutes to 3.5% in September, and Greene on 20 October put adjusted earnings at 3.4% and adjusted tax-data pay at 4.5%. If that view takes a majority, 24,453.36 is the active print. See also the German mid-cap path.

"All together, this suggests the risk of second-round effects taking hold is higher. This is even more so the case as energy prices have remained high and volatile for longer. In my view, this makes a risk management approach to our monetary policy strategy even more appropriate."

— Megan Greene, external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England (Bank of England speech, 20 October 2026)

Where a two-session range stops being a model

Three closes and one high map a decision-day call, and they fail if the report rewrites the path. Staff, on 14 September prices, already had inflation slightly above 4% in early 2027 while Bank Rate stayed at 3.75%, and the index still rallied 342.49 points on 2 November. The feed stopped at 16:35 on 3 November. The gilt side is in the gilt-supply note on the Market News desk.

What would invalidate this call

The base case, a 5 November cash close back at 24,795.85, breaks if any one of these four outcomes prints:

• A cash close below 24,618.35 on 4 November or on 5 November. That price is the 3 November low, and a close beneath it makes 24,453.36 the active path.
• Bank Rate is set above 4% on 5 November. A larger move than the 25 basis point step in the Reuters poll is a different decision from the one treated as priced.
• The November report lifts the early-2027 Consumer Prices Index path to 4.5% or higher. Staff, on 14 September prices, had the path only slightly above 4%. A rewrite of that size breaks the single-step assumption.
• The Committee maintains 3.75% and the index still finishes at or under 24,674.91. A hold is the bull case. A finish at or under the 3 November close means the domestic bid is missing, and 24,839.00 is the wrong destination.

What to watch into the 5 November close

The calendar places the summary, the minutes and the Monetary Policy Report at midday London time on Thursday 5 November 2026, and the cash close follows. Compare the vote with the six-to-three split, the early-2027 inflation figure with the slightly-above-4% staff path, and any line that treats 17 December as the next rise. October inflation is due on 18 November 2026. Pages for the figures are the London Stock Exchange FTSE 250 page, the Bank of England dates page, the September minutes, the September inflation bulletin and the Reuters poll of 15 October 2026.

TL;DR

The FTSE 250 base case is a return to 24,795.85, the 2 November 2026 London Stock Exchange close, at the cash close on 5 November 2026. The bull case is 24,839.00 if Bank Rate stays at 3.75% or a hike to 4% comes with a cap, and the bear case is 24,453.36 if the report endorses further rises. The Office for National Statistics put Consumer Prices Index inflation at 3.5% in September 2026, up from 3.1% in August, against a spot of 24,674.91, and a cash close below 24,618.35 breaks the base case on the decision day.

FAQ

What is the FTSE 250 base-case level?

The base case is 24,795.85 at the cash close on 5 November 2026, the 2 November close on the London Stock Exchange feed. The last trade on 3 November was 24,674.91, so the reclaim is 120.94 points, and it follows if Bank Rate rises from 3.75% to 4%, the step 54 of 63 economists forecast in the Reuters poll of 12 to 14 October.

When does the Bank of England next set Bank Rate?

The Bank of England dates page lists Thursday 5 November 2026 as the next Monetary Policy Committee announcement, with the minutes and the November Monetary Policy Report. Bank Rate on that page is 3.75%, and the following confirmed date is 17 December 2026, which sits outside this horizon, and the release is at midday.

Where does the 24,674.91 spot come from?

The spot is the London Stock Exchange pricing feed for the FTSE 250, last traded at 24,674.91 on 3 November 2026 at 16:35, down 120.94 points from 24,795.85. The same update shows a high of 24,839.00 and a low of 24,618.35, and names FTSE as the source. The index-values record lists 251 constituents and a price/earnings ratio of 11.75.

Which print breaks the base case?

A cash close below 24,618.35, the 3 November low, breaks the base case on 4 November or on 5 November. Bank Rate set above 4%, an early-2027 Consumer Prices Index path of 4.5% or higher, or a hold at 3.75% that still leaves the index at or under 24,674.91, breaks it as well.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment or trading advice; index levels can move sharply, past ranges do not guarantee the next close, and a regulated adviser is the right person to consult before any investment decision.