KOSDAQ to 674: the hike-bias case

KOSDAQ reaches 674.42 by November 26, 2026 in the base case, 644.68 in the bear case and 734.36 in the bull case, because the Bank of Korea still treats further Base Rate increases as the working path after holding at 3.00% on October 22.

The Korea Exchange index file for the November 3, 2026 session printed KOSDAQ at 704.39, a fall of 29.97 points, or 4.08%, from the November 2 close of 734.36. That close stands 21.23% under the October 1 close of 894.29. Subtracting that 29.97-point decline produces the base case of 674.42 into the November 26 meeting, and four signals would retire that path.

Key Levels:

• KOSDAQ: 704.39 at the November 3, 2026 close, down 29.97 points or 4.08% from 734.36 — Korea Exchange index series
• Base case target: 674.42 by November 26, 2026 — November 3 close minus the 29.97-point decline
• Bull case target: 734.36 if the November 26 statement holds 3.00% and drops further hikes — the November 2 close
• Bear case target: 644.68 if the Base Rate is lifted above 3.00% — November 3 close minus the 59.71-point fall from 764.10
• Major support: 674.42 — one-session extension of the November 3 decline, Korea Exchange closes only
• Major resistance: 734.36, then 764.10 — November 2 close and October 22 policy-day close
• Invalidation level: a daily close above 734.36 — reclaims the close that failed on November 3

How the KOSDAQ close and the policy date were fixed

The spot is the KOSDAQ composite on the Korea Exchange index series for business date November 3, 2026: present price 704.39, a 29.97-point fall, fluctuation rate minus 4.08%. The same last price is on the exchange English index list. The base is 1,000 as of July 1, 1996. Checkpoints run from December 30, 2025 to November 3, 2026. In that sample, 945.57 on January 2 is the high and 894.29 on October 1 is the high autumn print. The Bank of Korea meeting calendar lists November 26, 2026 as the last policy meeting of the year. The base-rate progress chart shows 3.00% on November 3. Closes are used, and the intraday range stays unstated.

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What the November 3 tape shows

The KOSDAQ index is the Korea Exchange benchmark for the growth-stock board, with a base of 1,000 set on July 1, 1996. On November 3, 2026 it closed at 704.39, down 29.97 points, or 4.08%, from 734.36 the day before, on the Korea Exchange index series for that session. Listed market capitalisation was 399.39 trillion won, down from 416.11 trillion on November 2 and 516.11 trillion on January 2, a 22.61% capitalisation decline from the first session of the year. Larger names led: the large-cap series fell 4.90% to 1,661.77, mid-caps fell 3.79% to 771.03, and small-caps fell 2.21% to 2,126.7. Electrical and electronics fell 5.60% to 1,389, and the KOSDAQ 150 fell 4.55% to 1,168.28. The close sits 23.89% under the December 30, 2025 print of 925.47 and 21.23% under the October 1 close of 894.29.

Sources: Korea Exchange index series, collected November 3, 2026. Time window: December 30, 2025 to November 3, 2026.

From the October 22 close of 764.10 the index has lost 59.71 points, or 7.81%, to 704.39. October 30 had already printed 724.38, down 3.83%, so November 3 extended a slide already underway.

"The Board, therefore, sees it warranted to continue its policy response until there is confidence that inflation will converge stably to the target level, and will determine the timing and pace of further Base Rate hikes while closely monitoring incoming data."

— Shin Hyun Song, Governor, Bank of Korea, opening remarks to the press conference (Bank of Korea, October 22, 2026)

Why the hike bias points to 674.42

A base case of 674.42 is the November 3 Korea Exchange close of 704.39 minus that session's 29.97-point decline, and it runs to the Monetary Policy Board meeting on November 26, 2026. The Bank's calendar places that Thursday after October 22, when the Board left the Base Rate at 3.00%. The base-rate series still shows 3.00% on November 3, after the July 16 and August 27 rises. Governor Shin Hyun Song, in office from April 21, 2026 to April 20, 2030 on the Bank's executive page, told the October 22 press conference that the Board would set the timing and pace of further hikes. September consumer prices were 2.9% and core inflation was 2.8%. The bear case of 644.68 repeats the 59.71-point fall from the October 22 close of 764.10 if the Board lifts the rate above 3.00%.

The bull case at 734.36 is the November 2 close. It needs the November 26 statement to hold 3.00% and to drop the further-hikes sentence. October 22 was already a unanimous hold, and the index still fell from 764.10 to 704.39. Related rate holds appear in the Jakarta Composite under a Bank Indonesia rate hold, the TAIEX under a held discount rate, and the CSI 300 on an unchanged loan prime rate.

Firm output is the case against another leg down. The October decision puts growth this year and next considerably above the August forecasts of 3.3% and 2.9%. Real gross domestic income rose 18.8% on the year in the third quarter. A hike day can still rally, as on August 27, when KOSDAQ rose 1.30% to 837.65.

Where a closes-only measured move goes wrong

The 674.42 figure repeats one session's decline and then stops. It will look too shallow if the slide from 764.10 keeps its pace, and too deep if November 3 mean-reverts before the meeting. Checkpoints skip most sessions from January to October, so 894.29 is a sampled autumn high. Intraday lows sit outside the file.

August 27 limits the rule inside this sample: the Board raised the Base Rate by 25 basis points to 3.00% and KOSDAQ rose 1.30% to 837.65, while July 16 saw a 4.53% drop to 791.84 on the move to 2.75%. The Bank flags the Middle East conflict, US policy after the midterm elections and artificial intelligence investment, and none of those risks carries a point value here.

"Six Monetary Policy Board members supported the decision to raise the Base Rate, while one member, Hwang Kunil, voted against the decision, proposing to keep the Base Rate unchanged at 2.75%."

— Hwang Kunil, Monetary Policy Board member, Bank of Korea, as recorded in the August 27 decision (Bank of Korea, August 27, 2026)

What would invalidate the base case

The base case to 674.42 breaks if any one of these four signals fires before the close on November 26, 2026:

• A daily KOSDAQ close above 734.36. That November 2 close is the bull case, so reclaiming it ends the bearish measured move.
• A November 26 hold at 3.00% whose remarks drop the line on further Base Rate hikes. The base case needs that hike bias to remain in the text.
• A close above 764.10, the October 22 policy-day close. That retraces the 59.71-point slide since the last hold.
• A November 26 hike after which KOSDAQ still closes above 704.39. August 27 paired a 25 basis point rise with a higher index close.

What to watch next

The meeting that matters is the Monetary Policy Board session on November 26, 2026, on the Bank of Korea calendar. Read whether the remarks still set the timing and pace of further Base Rate hikes. Growth is in hand at 1.0% on the quarter and 3.4% on the year. A close through 734.36 is the invalidation, and a close through 764.10 retraces the post-hold decline. The base-rate chart stands at 3.00% on the November 3 observation.

TL;DR

KOSDAQ closed at 704.39 on November 3, 2026, down 4.08% on the day and 23.89% below the December 30, 2025 close of 925.47, on Korea Exchange checkpoint data. The base case is 674.42 by November 26, 2026, while the Base Rate sits at 3.00% and the October 22 remarks still point to further hikes. The bull case returns to 734.36 if that hike line is dropped. The bear case is 644.68 if the Board lifts the Base Rate above 3.00%. A daily close above 734.36 invalidates the base case.

FAQ

What is the KOSDAQ base case into the next policy meeting?

The base case is a KOSDAQ close of 674.42 on November 26, 2026. That figure is the Korea Exchange close of 704.39 on November 3 minus the 29.97-point fall that session. It assumes the Bank of Korea keeps the October 22 path, a hold at 3.00%. The bull case is 734.36 and the bear case is 644.68 if the Board hikes above 3.00%.

Where does the 704.39 spot come from?

The 704.39 print is the KOSDAQ present price on the Korea Exchange index series for business date November 3, 2026. The change versus the previous day is 29.97 points and the fluctuation rate is minus 4.08%. The exchange English index list shows the same last price. The prior close in that file is 734.36.

When does the Bank of Korea next set the Base Rate?

The Bank of Korea meeting calendar lists November 26, 2026, a Thursday, as the next policy date after October 22. October 22 left the Base Rate unchanged at 3.00%. The base-rate chart shows 3.00% after the August 27 rise of 25 basis points from 2.75%, and 3.00% again on November 3. Price levels in the base, bull and bear cases run to that meeting.

What price would retire the bearish base case?

A daily close above 734.36 retires the base case. That price is the November 2 Korea Exchange close and the bull-case target, so a break back through it ends the measured move on its own rule. A close above 764.10 would erase the 59.71-point slide since October 22. A hike on November 26 that leaves KOSDAQ above 704.39 would copy the August 27 session.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.