Natural gas to $3.10 as the storage surplus thins

Natural gas, priced at the Henry Hub, reaches $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) by November 25, 2026 in the base case, $3.40 if cold weather arrives early, and $2.55 if mild weather keeps injections running. The base case rests on Lower 48 working gas of 3,724 billion cubic feet on October 23, 38 billion cubic feet, or 1.0%, above the five-year average, with Henry Hub spot at $2.76 on October 27 in the Energy Information Administration (EIA) daily file. November storage prints decide whether that gap closes.

Key Levels:

• Natural gas: Henry Hub spot $2.76 per MMBtu on October 27, 2026 — EIA series RNGWHHD
• Base case target: $3.10 by November 25, 2026 — towards the October average of $3.04
• Bull case target: $3.40 if cold weather clears the October 15 high of $3.30
• Bear case target: $2.55 if spot revisits the October 26 low of $2.52
• Major support: $2.52 — October 26 spot low, EIA daily series
• Major resistance: $3.30 — October 15 spot high, same series
• Invalidation level: daily Henry Hub spot settlement below $2.50

How the Henry Hub levels were built

The Henry Hub daily series RNGWHHD, released by the EIA on October 28, 2026, ends on October 27. The Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, released at 10:30 eastern on October 29, covers the week ending October 23. The Short-Term Energy Outlook natural-gas chapter was released on October 6, and the next edition is set for November 10. Positioning is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disaggregated futures-only file for New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) natural gas, code 023651, as of October 27. December futures and the northern temperature note come from Bloomberg's October 30 report. The storage schedule keeps ordinary weeks at 10:30 eastern on Thursdays.

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A thin surplus under the October average

The Henry Hub spot price is the daily US natural gas benchmark the EIA publishes for pipeline deliveries in Louisiana. On October 27, 2026 the price was $2.76 per MMBtu, up $0.24 from the October 26 low of $2.52 and $0.54 under the October 15 high of $3.30, in series RNGWHHD released on October 28. October's 19 sessions in that file averaged $3.04, and the December 31, 2025 price was $4.00, so the latest mark sits 31% under the final 2025 reading. Working gas was 3,724 billion cubic feet (Bcf) on October 23, a weekly build of 80 Bcf, 38 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,686 Bcf and 147 Bcf under the year-ago stock of 3,871 Bcf, the October 29 storage report shows. The base case takes spot back to $3.10 by November 25, 2026, towards that October average.

Source: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, released October 29, 2026, for the week ending October 23, with the five-year average covering 2021 to 2025. Salt caverns inside South Central held 274 Bcf, 11.6% under the 310 Bcf five-year average.

South Central, home to Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants, was the one region under its five-year average, and salt sat 36 Bcf under its own average.

"The near-term weather outlook continues to weigh on natural gas prices, with widespread above-normal temperatures expected to limit heating demand through the opening days of November. This bearish weather pattern has overshadowed an otherwise supportive fundamental backdrop, including robust LNG export demand and ten consecutive weeks of below-average storage injections."

— Andy Huenefeld, author, The Energy Buyer's Guide, Pinebrook Energy Advisors (Pinebrook Energy Advisors, October 26, 2026)

Why a return to $3.10 is the base case

A thin storage surplus means Lower 48 working gas sits close to the five-year norm, so a modest shift in weather or exports can move the Henry Hub price. The October outlook estimated end-September inventories at 3,523 Bcf and a further build of 328 Bcf during October, to 3,850 Bcf, 2% above the five-year average. Stocks on October 23 were already 3,724 Bcf, leaving 126 Bcf between the latest print and that end-October figure, and the next report is dated November 5. The same outlook puts the 2027 Henry Hub average at $3.16 per MMBtu, down 32 cents, or 9%, from 2026, which places the 2026 average at $3.48. Spot at $2.76 is 33 cents under the February-through-December path of $3.09. The base case aims at $3.10, beside the administration's caution that stocks above the five-year average limit upward pressure.

Futures have priced a mild start. Bloomberg reported on October 30 that NYMEX December had fallen 18% in three weeks to $2.898 per MMBtu, with above-normal temperatures expected across the northern United States through early November. Managed money on the single NYMEX line was long 198,900 and short 405,217 as of October 27, a net short of 206,317 in open interest of 1,681,043. Across seven Henry Hub contracts the short-only count was 625,150, the largest since May 2013, and the net short was 223,591.

"Although the November contract crashed through the 50-day moving average at $3.07, likely support near the $3.00 per MMBtu psychological level, record LNG demand, South Central storage 121 Bcf below year-ago levels, easing selling pressure on NYMEX winter contracts, and recovering weather may provide initial support at the front of the curve."

— Eli Rubin, energy analyst, EBW Analytics Group (Rigzone, October 21, 2026)

Where the storage framework is weak

The October average of $3.04 describes a finished month. Above-normal temperatures into early November can keep heating demand soft enough that injections run past the usual end of the refill season. The outlook says stocks can build through mid-November, and heating degree days this winter are nearly unchanged from last winter and 1% under the previous five-winter average. On October 21 Rubin still saw support near $3 on the November contract, which later settled near $2.60.

January is a poor template for this horizon. The daily file shows a January 2026 average of $7.72 and a high of $30.72 on January 23, the Fern episode. A retracement to $3.10 lacks that shock, and $3.40 needs a cold revision plus short covering. The diesel forecast-gap note makes the same split between an administration path and the prompt price.

What would invalidate the base case

The base case to $3.10 breaks if any one of these four signals prints:

• A daily Henry Hub spot settlement below $2.50. That sits under the October 26 low of $2.52 and would extend the washout.
• Lower 48 working gas above 3,900 Bcf on or before November 25, 2026. The outlook's end-October figure is 3,850 Bcf, so a higher print means builds have run past that path.
• A NYMEX December settlement below $2.70 while northern forecasts stay above normal. Bloomberg put the contract at $2.898 on October 30, so a further break would confirm the mild open.
• A November 10 outlook that cuts the 2026 Henry Hub average by more than 20 cents from $3.48. The February-through-December path of $3.09 anchors the $3.10 base case.

The storage dates inside the horizon

The October 29 storage file names November 5, 2026 as the next release. The holiday schedule moves Veterans Day week to Friday, November 13, at 10:30 eastern, and Thanksgiving week to Wednesday, November 25, at noon eastern. November 19 is absent from that exception list, so the standing Thursday rule keeps it at 10:30 eastern. The outlook follows on November 10. The positioning analogue is the COMEX copper surplus and funds-rate case, and further commodity notes sit on the market news desk.

TL;DR

Natural gas at the Henry Hub has a base case of $3.10 by November 25, 2026, a bull case of $3.40, and a bear case of $2.55. Spot was $2.76 on October 27, under the $3.04 October average, while working gas was 3,724 Bcf on October 23, 38 Bcf, or 1.0%, above the five-year average, the EIA reported on October 29. Managed money on NYMEX natural gas was net short 206,317 contracts as of October 27. A daily spot settlement below $2.50 ends the base case.

Questions the storage calendar still leaves open

What is the base-case natural gas target, and which date is attached to it?

The base case is a Henry Hub spot price of $3.10 per MMBtu by November 25, 2026. The bull case is $3.40 if a cold revision clears the October 15 high of $3.30, and the bear case is $2.55 if spot revisits the October 26 low of $2.52. That date is the Thanksgiving storage report, set for noon eastern on the EIA schedule.

Why does a surplus of 38 billion cubic feet matter for the Henry Hub price?

Working gas of 3,724 Bcf on October 23 sat 38 Bcf, or 1.0%, above the five-year average of 3,686 Bcf and 147 Bcf under last year's 3,871 Bcf. South Central was 2.3% under its five-year average. Spot at $2.76 is under the October average of $3.04, so the base case is a grind towards $3.10.

Which storage releases fall inside the horizon?

The October 29 storage file names November 5, 2026 as the next report. Veterans Day week moves to Friday, November 13, at 10:30 eastern, and Thanksgiving week to Wednesday, November 25, at noon eastern. November 19 stays at 10:30 eastern on the ordinary Thursday clock. The outlook update is dated November 10.

What settlement would show that the base case has failed?

A daily Henry Hub spot settlement below $2.50 would end the base case, under the October 26 low of $2.52. Working gas above 3,900 Bcf on or before November 25, a NYMEX December settlement below $2.70 with northern forecasts still warm, or a November 10 cut of more than 20 cents from the $3.48 average would do the same on its own.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.