Arabica to 310 cents: the first-notice tightness case

December 2026 Coffee C arabica futures reach 310.00 cents per pound by November 18, 2026 in the base case, 318.20 in the bull case and 269.75 in the bear case. Certified washed arabica stocks stood at 222,035 bags in the October 29, 2026 I & M Smith report, 4,389 bags above the September 15 low of 217,646, with first notice for December listed on November 19, 2026. The path breaks if any one of four signals below fires.

Key Levels:

• Coffee C, December 2026: 287.20 cents per pound, October 30, 2026 close — Yahoo Finance KC=F (open 288.00, range 283.30–291.50, volume 14,051)
• Base case target: 310.00 cents by November 18, 2026 — 78.6 percent retracement of 318.20 to 280.80
• Bull case target: 318.20 cents, the October 20 high, if certified stocks revisit 217,646 bags
• Bear case target: 269.75 cents, the September 23 low, if 280.80 gives way
• Major support: 280.80 cents — October 29 low, KCZ26.NYB daily bar
• Major resistance: 307.94 cents, the October 30 50-day average, then 318.20
• Invalidation level: a daily close below 280.80 cents

How the Coffee C levels were built

Prices are Yahoo Finance daily bars for December 2026 Coffee C (KCZ26.NYB) from April 30, 2026 through October 30, checked against the KC=F page for the 287.20 last price, the minus 6.60 percent five-session return and the 307.94 50-day average. Positioning is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) futures-only Coffee C report, code 083731, as of October 27, 2026. Stocks and the December-March spread are the I & M Smith report of October 29, 2026, so both are October 28 readings. Rules and dates are the ICE Coffee C specification and the Dec26 expiry row. The October 30 spread was absent from those pages.

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Stocks, the curve and the fund book

Sources: Yahoo Finance KC=F and KCZ26.NYB daily bars, April 30, 2026 to October 30, 2026; I & M Smith, October 29, 2026, prior session; CFTC Coffee C code 083731 as of October 27, 2026.

Coffee C is the Intercontinental Exchange Futures U.S. contract that prices physical delivery of exchange-grade arabica. Each contract covers 37,500 pounds, the quotation is in cents per pound, and the listed months are March, May, July, September and December. Delivery is made from certified stock in licensed warehouses, so the daily stock print is the float that can be tendered once first notice arrives. On the session covered by the October 29, 2026 I & M Smith report, certified washed arabica stocks fell 2,787 bags to 222,035, which left them 4,389 bags above the September 15 low of 217,646, a level that report calls a 27-year low. Coffee awaiting grading rose 5,860 bags to 41,961, the highest queue in six weeks, and Brazilian semi-washed arabica already made up 79,867 bags, or 35.97 percent of certified stock. A queue of that size can lift the certified total if the cups pass.

Managed money was net long 20,104 contracts as of October 27, 11.7 percent of open interest of 171,689, after a weekly cut of 2,233. Producers and merchants were net short 23,484, and the trade report put prompt open interest at 69,666 lots.

"The math changed, and all of a sudden it didn’t make sense to deliver as much of that."

— Judy Ganes, president, J. Ganes Consulting (The Straits Times, citing Bloomberg, October 16, 2026)

Why 310 cents is the retracement into first notice

The 310.00-cent base target is a retracement level. December Coffee C made a session high of 318.20 cents on October 20, 2026 and a session low of 280.80 cents on October 29, a range of 37.40 cents. Taking 78.6 percent of that range, 29.40 cents, and adding it to the low produces 310.20, and the base target of 310.00 sits immediately under that print. The 50-day average on the Yahoo Finance quote page stood at 307.94, so the path to 310.00 has to clear that average and still finishes 8.20 cents short of the October 20 high. From the October 30 close of 287.20 the base target is 22.80 cents higher, or 7.9 percent, and December travelled 23.40 cents between the October 15 close and the October 20 high. The bull case of 318.20 is that high revisited. The bear case of 269.75 is the September 23 session low.

The ICE expiry table lists Dec26 first notice on November 19, 2026 and last trading day on December 18, so November 18 is the last session before notices and the horizon stops there. On October 28, December at 286.75 cents held a 10.55-cent premium to March at 276.20.

A queue of 41,961 bags, a 35.97 percent Brazilian share of certified stock and the 600-point discount on Brazilian coffee in the specification sit behind the 31.00-cent drop from the October 20 high. The record-crop case that pointed arabica toward 250 cents is why the bull case stops at 318.20 rather than the August 25 high of 345.65. The dollar bought 5.346 reais at the start of the October 29 session.

Where a stock-and-retracement framework runs out

The framework uses the certified bag count and the swing from 318.20 to 280.80, and the next flowering sits outside those inputs. “With coffee trees at a critical stage of flowering and vegetative growth, these conditions support production potential and reinforce the favorable outlook for the 2027/28 crop,” Rabobank said on October 22, 2026. That crop is a March story. It leaves the November 19 bag count unchanged and can still cap a rally that survives notice. Inside this season, stocks near 217,646 bags coexisted with a rally to 318.20. A cotton stocks case and a sugar balance-sheet case each rest on a separate deliverable float.

"It's a huge crop. So in comparison with last year, there's still a large quantity of excellent-quality Brazil."

— Oliver Broster, senior manager of coffee analysis, Expana (The Straits Times, citing Bloomberg, October 16, 2026)

What would invalidate this path

The base case of 310.00 cents by November 18, 2026 breaks if any one of these four signals prints:

• A daily close below 280.80 cents. That October 29 low is the base of the retracement, and a close through it opens the September 23 low at 269.75.
• Certified stocks above 250,000 bags before November 18. The October 28 print was 222,035 bags, with 41,961 pending, so a print above that line would mean the queue had become deliverable stock.
• A December premium over March of 2.00 cents or less, or a March premium. The October 28 premium was 10.55 cents.
• Managed-money net length below 10,000 contracts in a CFTC report for a Tuesday on or before November 17, 2026, against the October 27 net long of 20,104.

What to watch before first notice

The morning stock sheet prints certified bags, the pending queue and the Brazilian share. The 41,961-bag queue can move the 222,035 total once grading finishes, a step the trade report put at one to two weeks when volume is high. Prompt open interest of 69,666 lots belongs beside the flat price. A sharp drop in that open interest while December is still under 300 cents would mean the roll has started. A close through 307.94 puts 310.00 in play, and a close through 280.80 ends the path.

TL;DR

December 2026 Coffee C arabica futures closed at 287.20 cents per pound on October 30, 2026. The base case is 310.00 by November 18, 2026, the session before ICE first notice on November 19, with a bull case at 318.20 and a bear case at 269.75. Certified washed arabica stocks were 222,035 bags in the October 29 I & M Smith report, 4,389 bags above the September 15 low of 217,646. Managed money was net long 20,104 contracts on October 27. A daily close below 280.80 breaks the path.

Frequently asked questions

What is the base-case level for December arabica?

The base case is 310.00 cents per pound by November 18, 2026, the session before first notice on December Coffee C. It sits just under the 310.20 retracement of the drop from 318.20 on October 20 to 280.80 on October 29. The bull case is 318.20 if stocks return to 217,646 bags, and the bear case is 269.75. From the October 30 close of 287.20 that base case is 22.80 cents higher.

When does first notice fall for December Coffee C?

The ICE expiry table for Dec26 lists first notice on November 19, 2026, first delivery on December 1 and last trading day on December 18. The specification sets first notice seven business days before the first business day of the delivery month. After that date a long can be assigned certified coffee, so the horizon is November 18, the last session before notices.

How tight are certified arabica stocks?

Certified washed arabica stocks fell 2,787 bags to 222,035 on the session in the October 29, 2026 I & M Smith report, 4,389 bags above the September 15 low of 217,646, which that report calls a 27-year low. Brazilian semi-washed coffee was 79,867 bags, or 35.97 percent. The grading queue rose 5,860 bags to 41,961, the highest in six weeks, so the tight total can change if those cups pass within one to two weeks.

What price break ends the 310-cent path?

A daily close below 280.80 cents per pound ends the base case. That October 29 low is where the retracement to 310.00 starts, and the next low on the same bars is 269.75 from September 23. Certified stocks above 250,000 bags, or a December premium over March of 2.00 cents or less, would also end the path, because either print would show the 10.55-cent October 28 backwardation had faded.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.