ICE No.11 raw sugar reaches 19.50 US cents/lb on the front-month continuation by March 31, 2027 in the base case, 21.50 cents in the bull case and 15.00 cents in the bear case. The mechanism is a 2026-27 balance that six forecasting houses have moved from surplus to deficit in nine weeks, while Brazilian mills divert record volumes of cane into ethanol and India switches from seller to buyer.

ICE No.11 raw sugar settled at 17.52 US cents/lb on August 20, 2026, a 15-month high and 17.74% above the 14.88 cents it traded a month earlier. The base case to 19.50 cents rests on a 2026-27 balance that Czarnikow, Covrig Analytics, StoneX, Green Pool, Datagro and the International Sugar Organization (ISO) have each pushed into deficit since June 11, 2026, and on India opening its first meaningful raw-sugar import window since the 2017-18 season. The thesis breaks if any one of four signals fires.

Key Levels:

• Asset: ICE No.11 raw sugar, October 2026 contract (SBV26) — 17.52 US cents/lb settlement, August 20, 2026 (Trading Economics); 17.49 cents in early trade on August 21, 2026 (Investing.com daily series)
• Base case target: 19.50 cents by March 31, 2027 on the front-month continuation — 11.3% above spot, and above the August 2026 cycle high
• Bull case target: 21.50 cents — if India extends its import quota beyond October 31, 2026 and the ISO cuts 2026-27 world output below 178 million tonnes
• Bear case target: 15.00 cents — if Centre-South mills lift the sugar mix back toward 48% and El Niño fails to verify in India and Thailand
• Major resistance: 18.26 cents — the August 2026 cycle high, top of the 52-week range (Barchart and Investing.com, August 21, 2026)
• Major support: 16.35 cents — where sugar traded 12 months ago, implied by the +7.16% year-on-year change published August 20, 2026
• Invalidation level: two consecutive weekly closes below 15.90 cents — a 60% retracement of the 14.37 to 18.26 advance

How this call was built

Prices are ICE settlements from the Trading Economics and Investing.com daily series, July 21 to August 21, 2026. Positioning is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders (COT) short-format futures-only report for Sugar No. 11, CFTC code 080732, as of August 11, 2026. Brazilian supply is the UNICA fortnightly Centre-South bulletin series for the 2026-27 crop through the second half of July. Balance estimates are those published by the ISO, Czarnikow, StoneX, Covrig Analytics, Green Pool and Datagro between June 11 and August 3, 2026. Indian policy is the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) notification of August 20, 2026; monsoon data is the India Meteorological Department (IMD) series to August 19. Three caveats: balance estimates are unaudited and use different marketing-year definitions, UNICA data is self-reported, and COT is a Tuesday snapshot published on Friday.

The balance flipped in nine weeks, not nine months

What matters is not the level of any single deficit estimate but the speed and direction of the revisions. Every house that has updated since June has moved the same way.

Forecaster	2026-27 balance	Previous estimate	Date of revision
Green Pool Commodity Specialists	−3.30 million tonnes	−1.76 million tonnes	July 29, 2026
Datagro	−3.17 million tonnes	−2.26 million tonnes	August 2026
StoneX	−1.70 million tonnes	−0.55 million tonnes	July 28, 2026
Covrig Analytics	−0.30 million tonnes	+0.10 million tonnes	August 3, 2026
International Sugar Organization	−0.262 million tonnes	+2.20 million tonnes (2025-26)	August 2026
Czarnikow	−0.10 million tonnes	+1.40 million tonnes	June 11, 2026

Sources: forecaster statements as compiled in Barchart’s daily sugar commentary, June 11 to August 20, 2026. Time window: revisions published between June 11 and August 3, 2026. The ISO comparison is against its own 2025-26 estimate of May 18, 2026.

Positioning has already responded, and this argues for caution as much as conviction. The CFTC report for August 11, 2026 shows managed money holding 214,826 Sugar No. 11 futures long against 171,242 short, a net long of 43,584 contracts out of 1,115,157 lots of open interest. In that week alone, speculative shorts fell by 103,311 contracts while longs rose by 27,461 — a net swing of 130,772 contracts, roughly 6.6 million tonnes of notional sugar, in five sessions. Producers and merchants took the other side, lifting their gross short to 436,601 contracts, up 82,739 on the week. The fuel that drove sugar from 14.37 to 18.26 cents was short-covering, and it is now largely spent.

“the El Niño tends to put less rains in Asia as a whole, especially for India”

— Marcelo Bonifacio, Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst, StoneX (StoneX Market Intelligence)

Brazil is crushing more cane and making less sugar

The Centre-South story is routinely mis-stated as a cane failure. It is not. UNICA’s bulletin for the second half of July 2026 put cane crushing at 46.08 million tonnes, down 8.4% year on year, yet cumulative crushing since the marketing year opened in April is up 2.1%. Cumulative sugar output is down 12.4% at 16.9 million tonnes, and fortnightly sugar production fell 17% to 3.0 million tonnes while ethanol rose 2.8% to 2.39 billion litres. June was worse, with sugar output down 26.3% at 3.903 million tonnes. Brazil is short of sugar because mills chose ethanol, not because the cane is missing — a distinction that decides how quickly the deficit can be repaired.

That choice was rational. At the start of the 2026-27 season hydrous ethanol was paying roughly 1.5 cents/lb more than raw sugar, and spot sugar-ethanol parity has barely traded above 150 points all year. Crude strength, which Czarnikow cited when it cut its balance on June 11, kept the ethanol leg rich even as raws rallied. Layered on top is a genuine beet shortfall: European Union and United Kingdom production is running at 14.98 million tonnes, the lowest in 11 years, after drought and heat stress. The steelman for the bears is straightforward — a mix-driven deficit is the most reversible kind there is, and at 19.50 cents the arithmetic that pushed cane into ethanol stops working.

What the model misses

Three things. First, the ethanol switch is a switch, not a ratchet. Centre-South mills retain roughly 10 percentage points of mix flexibility within a season, and the 2011-12 and 2020-21 crops both saw the mix move four to six points inside a quarter once relative prices moved. Second, the monsoon signal is improving: the IMD reported cumulative June-to-September rainfall 13% below normal as of August 19, a recovery from 42% below normal on June 30. A dry monsoon that repairs itself in August is a different crop outcome from one that does not. Third, Trading Economics’ own model carries a 12-month projection of 18.00 cents and an end-of-quarter figure of 16.77 — both below this call. A target of 19.50 requires the deficit revisions to keep coming, not merely to hold.

“Inventory levels continue to provide a buffer of around 42 lakh tonnes of sugar available at the end of sugar season 2025-26, while the government retains policy flexibility to prioritise domestic sugar availability. Any moderation in exportable surplus would primarily reflect prudent inventory management rather than a structural supply deficit.”

— Deepak Ballani, Director General, Indian Sugar & Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ChiniMandi)

Ballani’s point is the strongest argument against the call, and India’s August action cuts both ways. The DGFT will allow up to 1 million tonnes of raw sugar in duty-free until October 31, 2026 — the first substantial import programme since 2017-18, and a direct response to domestic prices that rose roughly 40% in two months. Bullish on the face of it: the world’s second-largest producer is bidding for raws instead of offering them. Yet the industry frames the quota as precautionary, arguing there is no shortage and that mill stocks cover demand until the new crop arrives. Both readings are defensible, which is why the triggers below are written around observable data rather than narrative.

What would invalidate this call

The base case to 19.50 cents breaks if ANY ONE of these four signals fires:

• UNICA reports a Centre-South sugar mix above 48% in any fortnight before November 30, 2026. Mills swinging cane back to sugar would repair a mix-driven deficit inside one crop, not two.
• India’s quota lapses on October 31, 2026 without renewal and domestic prices fall back toward pre-July levels. That window is the most visible physical demand supporting the front of the curve; a quiet expiry says the tightness was seasonal.
• The ISO’s next quarterly revises 2026-27 world production back above 182 million tonnes. Its current 180 million tonnes, a 1.15% fall, is what converts a rounding-error deficit into a structural one.
• Two consecutive weekly closes below 15.90 cents. That would confirm the 130,772-contract short-covering swing was the whole move rather than the start of one.

What to watch next

The UNICA bulletin for the first half of August, due in the first week of September, is the highest-frequency read on whether the mix is turning; watch the sugar share of cane, not the headline crush. India’s IMD end-of-season monsoon summary on October 1 will settle whether the 13% shortfall bites into the 2026-27 crop. The DGFT’s decision on extending the raw-sugar quota past October 31 is the cleanest binary catalyst in the calendar. Weekly COT prints show whether managed money builds on its 43,584-contract net long or fades it. On the chart, 18.26 cents has to give way; failing there twice would argue for a 16.35 to 18.26 range rather than a trend.

FAQ

What is ICE Sugar No.11?

Sugar No. 11 is the world benchmark contract for raw cane sugar, traded on ICE Futures U.S. in lots of 112,000 pounds and quoted in US cents per pound, free-on-board from any of a list of eligible origins. Contract months are March, May, July and October. It settled at 17.52 cents on August 20, 2026, with open interest of 1,115,157 lots as of the August 11 CFTC report.

Why did sugar rally 17.74% in a month?

Three drivers stacked. Brazilian Centre-South mills diverted cane to ethanol, cutting cumulative 2026-27 sugar output 12.4% year on year. Forecasters from Czarnikow to Green Pool moved the 2026-27 world balance into deficit. And India opened a 1 million-tonne duty-free raw import quota on August 20, 2026, its first substantial buying since 2017-18. Speculative short-covering of 103,311 contracts in the week to August 11 amplified all three.

Does India’s import quota make sugar bullish?

Directionally yes, but the size is modest against roughly 180 million tonnes of world production. One million tonnes is about 0.6% of global output, and it is capped at October 31, 2026. The signal matters more than the tonnage: a habitual exporter bidding for raws is inconsistent with a comfortable balance, which is why the market treated the notification as confirmation rather than news.

What is the biggest risk to the 19.50-cent target?

Ethanol parity. Brazil’s shortfall is a mix decision, not a crop failure — cumulative crushing is up 2.1% even as sugar output fell 12.4%. If raw sugar keeps rallying while hydrous ethanol does not, the arithmetic reverses and mills push the sugar mix back up. A Centre-South mix above 48% in any fortnight before November 30, 2026 would invalidate the call outright.

How does this compare with other softs?

The pattern rhymes with the shrinking-surplus setups seen elsewhere in agricultural commodities this year, including our cocoa call for year-end 2026 and the supply-side arithmetic behind arabica’s path to 250 cents. Sugar differs in one respect: its supply is switchable at the mill gate within weeks, which makes both the deficit and its repair faster than in grains or in metals with long lead times.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.