Silver to $58 by September 30: the spec-length unwind case
Silver at $64.12, 8.7% below the August 28 LBMA fix. CFTC net length rose into the top and Warsh says the Fed has work to do. Base case $58 by September 30.
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September 2026
SOFR–IORB capped at 10bp into year-end: the fading-turn case
SOFR–IORB sits at 0bp against +22bp at the last year-end. The call: at or below +10bp on December 31, 2026, with the Standing Repo Facility as the ceiling.
August 2026
USD/TRY path to 50 runs through the CBRT’s restarted repo auction
USD/TRY at 48.245 after the CBRT restarted one-week repo auctions on August 23, cutting effective funding 300bp. Base case 50.00 by October 31, 2026.
EU carbon to €90 by year-end 2026: the surplus-floor case
EU carbon allowances closed at €82.87/t. The Market Stability Reserve intake from September 1 draws the ETS surplus to exactly 833 million — and to €90/t.
ULSD to $4.40 by year-end 2026: the EIA forecast-gap case
US distillate stocks sit 9.5% below last year and exports run 28.5% higher, yet the EIA forecasts a Q4 build. The case for ULSD at $4.40 by year-end 2026.
USD/ZAR to 15.50 by year-end 2026: the 3% target case
USD/ZAR to 15.50 by year-end 2026: SARB 3% target keeps the repo at 7% as CPI falls to 4.3%, widening the real rate while gold tops $4,500 and DXY sits below 100.
OAT–Bund to 105bp by end-Q1 2027: the rating-crossover case
France's 10-year OAT yields more than Italy's BTP despite a far stronger rating. The OAT–Bund spread widens from 85.7bp to 105bp by end-Q1 2027.
EUR/JPY to 179 by year-end: the vanishing carry case
EUR/JPY is at 185.70 after fully retracing the joint US-Japan yen intervention. The euro-Japan policy spread has been frozen since December 2025.
UK 10-year gilt to 5.35% into the October Budget
The UK 10-year gilt yielded 5.0493% on August 25, 2026. Base case 5.35% by the October 28 Budget as fiscal supply risk and a rising CPI rebuild the premium.
Sugar to 19.50 cents by Q1 2027: the deficit-flip case
ICE No.11 raw sugar settled at 17.52 cents on August 20, 2026. Six houses have flipped the 2026-27 balance into deficit: why the base case is 19.50 cents.
Wheat to $7.60 by year-end 2026: the hard-red-winter case
CBOT wheat at 679 USd/bu. Base case 760 by year-end 2026 as USDA cuts hard red winter output to a 1957/58 low and exporter stocks fall 16.7%.
USD/JPY capped near 160.30 into Jackson Hole: the carry-to-vol case
USD/JPY at 159.19 on August 19, 2026. The US-Japan two-year rate gap narrowed 19bp since August 3, yet the pair rose 1.93%. Base case 160.30 into Jackson Hole.
Tin to $62,000 by year-end 2026: the stock-drawdown case
Tin settled at $56,225/t on August 17, 2026 while LME stocks fell 41% in two months to 5,320 tonnes. Base case $62,000 by year-end 2026, bull $68,000, bear $48,000.
Zinc to $4,100 by Q4 2026: the West-versus-China split
LME zinc hit a four-year high as western warehouse stocks drained 21.2% in 30 days while China's export arbitrage stayed shut. Base case $4,100/t by Q4 2026.
Henry Hub to $2.40 by end-October 2026: the storage-record case
Henry Hub spot is $2.79/MMBtu with Lower 48 storage 198 Bcf above the five-year average. The base case is $2.40 by October 30, 2026 - the storage-record call.
MarketAxess to $167 by the ICE close: the merger-arb case
MKTX trades at $162.57 against ICE's contractual $167.00 cash offer - a 2.72% gross spread pricing a 10.7% deal-break risk. The antitrust case, both ways.
Capesize rates lead the Baltic Dry Index to 3,400 by October
The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2,844 on August 13, 2026, up 39.5% year on year. Capesize tonne-miles carry the case for 3,400 by October 31, 2026.
USD/JPY to 163.50 by September 30: intervention’s half-life
USD/JPY is 159.29 after the July 31 joint US-Japan intervention, retracing at 0.34 yen a session. Base case 163.50 by September 30, 2026; bear case 153.50.
Nickel to $15,000 by year-end 2026: the ore-versus-metal gap
LME nickel is $16,840/t despite Indonesia's one-third ore-quota cut. With 264,744 tonnes still in LME sheds, the base case is $15,000/t by year-end 2026.
