Oats to 323 cents: stocks-to-use has already loosened

Oats reach 323.00 cents per bushel by December 10, 2026 in the base case, 311.00 cents in the bear case and 350.75 cents in the bull case, because the next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) release can mark the 2026/27 farm price to a stocks-to-use ratio that already matches the looser prior year.

December 2026 Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) oats settled at 334.00 cents per bushel on November 9, 2026, one cent under the $3.35 season-average farm price the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) left unchanged in WASDE-676. Ending stocks rose to 33 million bushels with total use held at 140 million. Stocks-to-use is 23.6 per cent, against 23.4 per cent in 2025/26 at a $3.23 farm price.

Key Levels:

• Asset: December 2026 CBOT oats at 334.00 cents in the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Portland Daily Grain Bids for November 9, 2026. CME Group returned HTTP 403.
• Base case target: 323.00 cents by December 10, 2026, the 2025/26 farm price of $3.23 in WASDE-676.
• Bull case target: 350.75 cents, the March 2027 AMS settlement, if ending stocks fall to 32 million bushels.
• Bear case target: 311.00 cents, 323.00 cents minus the 12-cent step from $3.35 to $3.23.
• Major support: 323.00 cents, the base-case farm-price analogue.
• Major resistance: 350.75 cents, 16.75 cents over December.
• Invalidation level: a settlement above 350.75 cents.

How the oats levels were built

The balance sheet is the oats block of WASDE-676, dated October 9, 2026. Settlements are the November 9 CBOT white-oats closes in the AMS Portland Daily Grain Bids. CME Group returned HTTP 403 on November 10, 2026. Positioning is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders (COT) futures-only report as of October 20, 2026. The horizon is December 10, 2026, the next date after November 10 on the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) calendar. October ending-stock projections in that file miss the final by 14 million bushels on average.

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What the October balance sheet shows

October raised the 2026/27 oats yield by 3.3 bushels per acre to 75.3 and production by one million bushels to 69 million, on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Small Grains summary. Imports of 72 million bushels exceed that crop, supply is 173 million bushels against use of 140 million, and ending stocks move from 32 million to 33 million with the farm price still at $3.35.

Sources: USDA WAOB, WASDE-676, October 9, 2026, oats supply and use. Stocks-to-use is ending stocks divided by total use.

The 2026/27 oats balance sheet is the USDA account of supply and use for the marketing year, and the October projection in WASDE-676, dated October 9, 2026, is the sheet still in force ahead of the December 10 release. Supply is 173 million bushels, from beginning stocks of 32 million, production of 69 million and imports of 72 million. Total use is 140 million bushels, split into feed and residual of 55 million, food, seed and industrial use of 83 million, and exports of two million. Ending stocks are 33 million bushels, so stocks-to-use is 23.6 per cent. Imports exceed the domestic crop by three million bushels, The season-average farm price on that row is $3.35 per bushel. The 2025/26 book cleared at $3.23 on 23.4 per cent stocks-to-use, and 2024/25 cleared at $3.35 on 19.0 per cent.

The November 9 AMS curve is in carry, with March 2027 at 350.75 cents standing 16.75 cents over December at 334.00, and a Pacific Ports bid of $260.00 per ton, unchanged.

The CFTC report as of October 20, 2026 shows open interest of 4,097 contracts of 5,000 bushels, with non-commercial traders net long 1,032 contracts, or 25.2 per cent of open interest, and 20 traders in the book. One cent is worth $50, so the 11-cent gap is $550 a contract, the same thin-book pattern as the cocoa certified-stock margin and the rough-rice crop-report stock hold.

"With no other changes to the balance sheet, 2026/27 oats ending stocks are up 1 million bushels from last month to 33 million."

— Steven M Ramsey, coordinator, USDA Economic Research Service (Feed Outlook, October 14, 2026)

Why the stock ratio points at 323 cents

The base case re-marks the price cell to the ratio already on the sheet. The $3.35 farm price matched the 19.0 per cent stocks-to-use year, and it sits 12 cents above $3.23 on the 23.4 per cent book, within 0.2 points of October's 23.6 per cent. December futures at 334.00 cents sit one cent under $3.35, so 323.00 cents is that gap at the December 10 WASDE.

The base-case oats price is 323.00 cents per bushel for the December 2026 CBOT contract, set against the December 10, 2026 WASDE. It equals the 2025/26 season-average farm price of $3.23 per bushel in WASDE-676 of October 9, 2026. The October column still shows a 2026/27 farm price of $3.35, while ending stocks of 33 million bushels and total use of 140 million bushels produce stocks-to-use of 23.6 per cent. The 2025/26 estimate, 32 million bushels of stocks and 137 million of use, is 23.4 per cent and cleared at $3.23. The 2024/25 outcome is 19.0 per cent stocks-to-use and cleared at $3.35. December oats settled at 334.00 cents on November 9, 2026 in the AMS Portland Daily Grain Bids, 11 cents over $3.23. The bull case of 350.75 cents is the March 2027 settlement, and the bear case of 311.00 cents subtracts a further 12 cents.

Where a one-million-bushel model runs thin

On United States oats ending stocks, the October root mean square error is 22.0 per cent and the average miss is 14 million bushels, against a 33 million bushel point estimate. Production misses average two million bushels, so the price view leans on stocks and on the 72 million bushel import line. The 12-cent step from $3.35 to $3.23 is the analogue. The lumber housing-starts case has the same shape, a dated release and a price that release has to confirm.

"We won’t see prices such as in 2021 with drought, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we see $5 (per bushel) bids at some point."

— Scott Shiels, grain procurement manager, Grain Millers Canada, Yorkton (The Western Producer, September 21, 2026)

A $5 per bushel cash bid is 500 cents, 166 cents above the November 9 settlement of 334.00 cents. Shiels was describing Prairie cash, and the AMS bid of $260.00 per ton is a different price from the CBOT settlement. The futures target stays at 323.00 cents because the published ratio already matches the $3.23 year.

What would invalidate the path to 323 cents

The base case to 323.00 cents breaks if any one of these four signals prints.

• Ending stocks stay at or below 32 million bushels with the farm price at $3.35. Then 350.75 cents replaces 323.00 as the live comparison.
• December 2026 oats settle above 350.75 cents. That March settlement would close the 16.75 cents of carry, and it is the invalidation price.
• The non-commercial net long rises by more than 500 contracts from 1,032. A net long above 1,532, on open interest of 4,097, would crowd out the stock ratio. The November 3 file carried no oats block.
• Imports fall by five million bushels or more from 72 million. With use near 140 million, stocks slip through 32 million and the $3.23 case goes with them.

What the calendar puts in front of the board

The dated release is the December 10, 2026 WASDE, at noon Eastern time, taken from the WAOB calendar. November 10 is also listed and falls on the session date, so the horizon is the following entry. The tables stay on the October 9 file until December replaces them. The Feed Outlook of October 14 sets its next issue for November 13, 2026.

TL;DR

Oats are aimed at 323.00 cents per bushel by December 10, 2026, with 311.00 cents as the bear case and 350.75 cents as the bull case. December 2026 CBOT oats settled at 334.00 cents on November 9, 2026 one cent under the $3.35 farm price left unchanged in the October 9 WASDE as ending stocks rose to 33 million bushels. Stocks-to-use is 23.6 per cent, against 23.4 per cent at a $3.23 farm price. A settlement above 350.75 cents breaks the path.

FAQ

What is the base-case oats price?

The base-case oats price is 323.00 cents per bushel on the December 2026 CBOT contract for the December 10, 2026 WASDE. That figure is the 2025/26 season-average farm price of $3.23 in WASDE-676, published October 9, 2026. October still shows $3.35 for 2026/27, while stocks-to-use is 23.6 per cent on 33 million bushels of stocks and 140 million of use. December futures settled at 334.00 cents on November 9, an 11-cent gap above $3.23.

Where does the 334.00 cent oats settlement come from?

The 334.00 cent figure is the December 2026 CBOT white-oats settlement for November 9, 2026 in the USDA AMS Portland Daily Grain Bids, report ams_3148. The same line prints March 2027 at 350.75 cents, May 2027 at 359.00 and July 2027 at 359.25. CME Group returned HTTP 403 on November 10, 2026, so the spot is the AMS reading of the CBOT close. The report also shows a Pacific Ports bid of $260.00 per ton, unchanged.

What stocks-to-use ratio is behind the oats view?

The operative ratio is 23.6 per cent for 2026/27, October ending stocks of 33 million bushels divided by use of 140 million in WASDE-676. September was 22.9 per cent on 32 million bushels of stocks. The 2025/26 estimate is 23.4 per cent, from 32 million bushels and 137 million of use, at a $3.23 farm price. The 2024/25 outcome is 19.0 per cent at a $3.35 farm price.

What oats settlement would break a move to 323 cents?

A December 2026 settlement above 350.75 cents would break the path to 323.00 cents. That level is the March 2027 settlement on the November 9 AMS sheet. The other breaks are ending stocks at or below 32 million bushels with the farm price kept at $3.35, a non-commercial net long more than 500 contracts above 1,032, or an import cut of five million bushels or more from 72 million.

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