Rapeseed and the crush margin the board still carries

February 2027 Euronext rapeseed reaches €525.75 per tonne by December 10, 2026 in the base case, €530.50 in the bull case and €509.75 in the bear case, because the board still prices a €3.00 carry into May while the published German gross crush remains €181 per tonne.

Rapeseed (oilseed rape) on the February 2027 Euronext Paris contract settled at €522.75 per tonne on the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) futures board, updated at 06:55 London time on November 9, 2026 and retrieved at 07:09:54 UTC, matching the November 6 Euronext settlement. May 2027 settled at €525.75 and August 2027 at €507.25. Four observable prints would retire the base case before the December WASDE.

Key Levels:

• Rapeseed: February 2027 Euronext €522.75 — AHDB, 06:55 London time on November 9, 2026, retrieved 07:09:54 UTC
• Base case target: €525.75 by December 10, 2026 — February plus the €3.00 May carry
• Bull case target: €530.50 if EU rapeseed stays above the five-year average — half the €15.50 August discount added to February
• Bear case target: €509.75 if the €10 crush gap and the €3.00 carry both leave the seed price
• Major support: €512.25 — November 2027 settlement, €10.50 under February
• Major resistance: €525.75 — May 2027 settlement
• Invalidation level: February at or below €512.75 — €522.75 minus the €10 gap from €181 to €171

How the February levels were set

The spot is the February 2027 Euronext rapeseed future. AHDB stamps the board at 06:55 London time on November 9, 2026, and the retrieval is 07:09:54 UTC. AHDB’s Barchart feed is delayed by at least 10 minutes, and February was still the November 6 settlement of €522.75. Carry is May minus February and comes to €3.00. The August discount is €15.50, and half of that discount is €7.75. Herrington’s October 30 text gives a German gross crush of €181 per tonne and a statistical path to €171, a gap of €10.

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Adding the €3.00 carry, the €7.75 half-discount, a €10 subtraction and a further €3.00 subtraction produces €525.75, €530.50, €512.75 and €509.75. The window ends at the December 10, 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) at 12:00 Eastern Time, because November 10 falls one day after filing. The €10 seed pass-through stays a stress case, because Herrington assigns most of the compression to oil.

What the February board and the Autumn balance show

February is the reference contract, May is the only listed month above it, and August is the low print on the board.

Sources: AHDB futures prices, updated 06:55 London time on November 9, 2026, retrieved 07:09:54 UTC. The February print matches the November 6 Euronext settlement.

The crush margin the Euronext rapeseed board still carries is the €3.00 gap between the February 2027 settlement of €522.75 per tonne and the May 2027 settlement of €525.75, both on the AHDB futures page updated at 06:55 London time on November 9, 2026 and retrieved at 07:09:54 UTC. August 2027 settled at €507.25, which is €15.50 under February, so the board pays up for nearby seed and marks the later slot down. On October 30, 2026, Matt Herrington of World Perspectives put the German gross crush at €181 per tonne, with a statistical path to €171 per tonne, and said weaker oil values drive most of that €10. The base case therefore adds the €3.00 carry to €522.75 and lands on €525.75 per tonne by the December 10, 2026 WASDE. A February settlement at or below €512.75 per tonne would mean the seed had absorbed that full €10.

The European Commission’s Autumn 2026 short-term outlook estimates EU oilseed production in 2026/27 at 31.3 million tonnes, 0.3% under 2025/26 and 1.8% above the five-year average. Rapeseed production is expected 3.2% above the five-year average on a larger area, and 3.8% under 2025/26.

"Statistical forecasts call for German crushing margins to decline from €181/MT to €171/MT by mid-February, with weaker oil values driving most of the margin compression."

— Matt Herrington, President, World Perspectives (Ag Perspectives, October 30, 2026)

Why the €3.00 carry is the base case into the December WASDE

A February 2027 Euronext rapeseed base case of €525.75 per tonne is the November 6 settlement of €522.75 plus the €3.00 carry to May, and the horizon is the December 10, 2026 WASDE at 12:00 Eastern Time. The USDA calendar lists December 10 after November 10, and November 10 falls one day after filing, so the later release is the date used for the call. The bull case of €530.50 adds half of the €15.50 August discount to February, and it needs the December sheet to keep EU rapeseed production above the five-year average. The Commission’s Autumn 2026 outlook puts that premium at 3.2%, with EU oilseed production at 31.3 million tonnes and rapeseed 3.8% under 2025/26. The bear case of €509.75 subtracts the €10 statistical crush gap and then the €3.00 carry from €522.75. A February settlement at or below €512.75 means the seed has taken the full statistical compression, which is the invalidation.

A second World Perspectives model takes gross returns down 27 per cent to €132 per tonne by February. If the market prices that wider path before December 10, the €3.00 carry is the wrong anchor. The cocoa certified-stocks margin case treats an exchange margin as its own object, while the €132 figure stays a margin until a seed settlement confirms it.

What the carry arithmetic leaves out

May’s €525.75 is another contract’s November 6 settlement, so February reaches it only if the front month is lifted to a price May has already printed. December 10 is a checkpoint on Herrington’s path to mid-February, beside an August discount of €15.50 and a €49 gap from €181 to €132.

United Oilseeds estimates drilled UK oilseed rape area at 387,000 hectares, up by more than a third, and about 355,000 hectares for 2027 after roughly 8% losses, with production around 1.2 million tonnes against typical UK demand around two million tonnes, as Farmers Guide reported on November 6, 2026. The AHDB harvest survey of September 25, 2026 put sample yields at 4.0 tonnes per hectare, about 19% above the UK five-year average.

"Harvest 2026 was a very encouraging season for UK oilseed rape growers. Yields were among the best we've seen for many years, reflecting favourable growing conditions and the continued resilience of the crop."

— James Warner, managing director, United Oilseeds (Farmers Guide, November 6, 2026)

What would invalidate the base case

The base case to €525.75 breaks if any one of these four signals prints.

• A February 2027 settlement at or below €512.75 per tonne. That level is €522.75 minus the €10 gap from €181 to €171, so the seed would have absorbed the compression Herrington assigned mostly to oil.
• The December 10 WASDE puts EU rapeseed production under the five-year average. The Autumn outlook has rapeseed 3.2% above that average, and the other side of that print removes the supply description behind the carry.
• The May 2027 settlement falls under the February 2027 settlement. The €3.00 carry would have flipped, and adding it to February would describe a premium the board had stopped showing.
• A published German gross crush at €132 per tonne before December 10. That level is €49 under the €181 start, and it would replace the €10 statistical gap as the margin in use.

What to watch into the December WASDE

The horizon is December 10, 2026, at 12:00 Eastern Time, the WASDE date after November 10 on the USDA release calendar. The rough-rice crop-report case and the cotton stocks case use earlier dates on the same calendar.

Before December 10, compare each new February settlement with €525.75, €530.50 and €512.75, and compare May with February on the AHDB futures board. The Commission’s next balance is the EU check on the 3.2% premium in the Autumn outlook.

TL;DR

February 2027 Euronext rapeseed settled at €522.75 per tonne on the AHDB board updated at 06:55 London time on November 9, 2026. The base case is €525.75 by the December 10, 2026 WASDE, that settlement plus the €3.00 carry to May. The bull case is €530.50 and the bear case is €509.75. A February settlement at or below €512.75 retires the base case. World Perspectives puts the German gross crush at €181 per tonne on October 30, with a statistical path to €171 driven mostly by weaker oil values.

FAQ

Which Euronext contract sets the Rapeseed spot used here?

The spot is the February 2027 Euronext Paris rapeseed future at €522.75 per tonne, the November 6 settlement on the AHDB page updated at 06:55 London time on November 9, 2026 and retrieved at 07:09:54 UTC. May settled at €525.75, August at €507.25 and November at €512.25. February is the contract being called, and May supplies the €3.00 carry used in the base case.

How is the €525.75 base case calculated from the settlement?

May 2027 settled at €525.75 and February 2027 at €522.75, so the carry is €3.00 per tonne. Adding that carry to February returns €525.75, the May settlement itself. The horizon is December 10, 2026, the WASDE date after November 10 on the USDA calendar, both set for 12:00 Eastern Time. That addition is the whole method used here.

Why is the horizon the December WASDE rather than the nearer release?

The USDA calendar lists a WASDE on November 10, 2026 and the next on December 10, 2026, each at 12:00 Eastern Time. November 10 falls one day after filing. December 10 is the following date on that official list. The Commission Autumn outlook has EU rapeseed production 3.2% above the five-year average.

Where does the €512.75 invalidation level come from?

World Perspectives on October 30, 2026 puts the German gross crush at €181 per tonne and the statistical path at €171, a gap of €10. Subtracting €10 from the February settlement of €522.75 produces €512.75. A February settlement at or below that price is the invalidation. The bear case goes a further €3.00, to €509.75, by also removing the May carry from the seed price.

This article is informational analysis only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Foreign-exchange, commodity, and equity markets are highly volatile and can lose substantial value rapidly. Leveraged products carry total-loss risk and may exceed the initial margin posted. Past performance and historical correlations do not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision.