EUR/USD to 1.13 by Q4 2026: the term-premium counter-case
Consensus has EUR/USD at 1.18-1.25 on Fed cuts. If US long yields rise on term premium instead, the euro bull case loses its engine.
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Market calls with a spot, a target and an invalidation level.
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July 2026
DAX to 26,400 by year-end 2026: the fiscal-impulse case
The DAX sits flat in 2026 at 24,833. Base case 26,400 by year-end as German energy inflation decays and a record fiscal impulse reaches earnings.
USD/CHF to 0.7950 by Q3 2026: the SNB reaction-function case
USD/CHF sits at 0.8101 with the SNB at 0% and the Fed at 3.50%-3.75%. Why intervention, not the 362bp carry gap, sets the floor into Q3 2026.
Brent to $76 by year-end 2026: the half-premium case
Brent trades at $88.59/bbl after a 30% rally on the US-Iran ceasefire collapse, but the EIA still forecasts $70 for Q4. Base case: $76 by December 31, 2026.
US 10-year to 4.85% by Q3 2026: the term-premium case
The US 10-year closed at 4.55%, above the 4.0-4.5% consensus range forecasters still publish. The term-premium case for 4.85% by Q3 2026, with triggers.
AUD/USD to 0.7150 by Q3 2026: the energy-windfall case
AUD/USD targets 0.7150 by Q3 2026 as Australia's $42bn energy export upgrade inverts the Aussie's usual risk-off correlation. Levels, quotes, triggers.
Platinum to $1,750 by year-end 2026: the deficit-return case
Platinum to $1,750/oz by December 31, 2026. WPIC forecasts a fourth straight deficit — but Q1 delivered the first surplus in six quarters.
GBP/USD to 1.38 by Q3 2026: the BOE dissent case
GBP/USD to 1.3800 by September 30, 2026. Two MPC members back 4.00% and UK services CPI is re-accelerating — the market prices no BOE hike at all.
USD/JPY to 164 by year-end 2026: the hike-that-failed case
The BOJ hiked to 1.00% and the yen still weakened. Why 25bp against a 250bp gap left carry intact, and where USD/JPY lands by year-end 2026.
S&P 500 to 7,650 by year-end 2026: the 22.5x multiple case
Wall Street's S&P 500 targets span 7,100-8,250 on near-identical earnings. The gap is a multiple argument: base case 7,650 by year-end 2026 at 22.5x.
Copper to $11,100 by Q3 2026: the inventory-glut case
Copper inventories are up 540kt this year as Goldman and JPMorgan diverge by $2,000/mt on 2026 targets. Why $11,100 by Q3 - levels and disconfirmation.
Silver to $62 by Q3 2026: the ratio-compression case
Silver at $56 after a 52% crash: the gold-silver ratio at 69:1, a sixth deficit year and June's soft CPI point to $62 by Q3. Levels and disconfirmation.
EUR/USD to 1.12 by Q3 2026: the widening-gap case
EUR/USD heads to 1.12 by end-Q3 2026 as rising US CPI and falling euro-area inflation keep the 125-150bp rate gap wide. Levels, mechanism, disconfirmation.
Nikkei 225 to 71,500 by end-Q3 2026: the BOJ-flinch case
Nikkei 225 to 71,500 by end-Q3 2026: after July 16's 2.6% AI-led flush to 66,960, the case rests on a yield-constrained BOJ and a 165-yen path — with four kill switches.
JPMorgan to $365 by year-end 2026: the NII re-rating case
JPMorgan to $365 by year-end 2026: the raised $105.5bn NII guide and a record Q2 re-rate JPM from $344.59 — with four explicit signals that break the call.
WTI’s $80 Hormuz premium fades toward $72 into Q4 2026
WTI trades near $79.75 on a Strait of Hormuz risk premium, but OPEC+ supply and a persistent surplus point to a drift toward $72 by Q4 2026. Base, bull and bear cases.
Gold to $4,500 by year-end 2026: the central-bank-bid case
Gold trades near $4,340/oz in mid-2026. The base case sees $4,500 by year-end, floored by central-bank buying near 60 tonnes a month and capped by Fed-hike risk.
Henry Hub to $3.20 by Q3 2026: the associated-gas glut case
Henry Hub hit a two-month low at $2.90 while crude ran 19% on Hormuz. Why an oil shock is bearish for US natural gas - and what would break the call.
USD/CAD to 1.36 by Q3 2026: the petro-CAD reversal case
USD/CAD to 1.36 by Q3 2026. Bank forecasts for the loonie were built on cheap oil - and WTI just ran 19% to $80. The contrarian terms-of-trade case.
DXY to 105 by Q3 2026: the Warsh hawkish-repricing case
DXY to 105 by Q3 2026. July Fed hike odds jumped from 10% to 50% and the 2-year hit 4.29%. Why an oil shock is lifting the dollar, and what kills the call.
