Sugar to 19.50 cents by Q1 2027: the deficit-flip case
ICE No.11 raw sugar settled at 17.52 cents on August 20, 2026. Six houses have flipped the 2026-27 balance into deficit: why the base case is 19.50 cents.
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August 2026
Wheat to $7.60 by year-end 2026: the hard-red-winter case
CBOT wheat at 679 USd/bu. Base case 760 by year-end 2026 as USDA cuts hard red winter output to a 1957/58 low and exporter stocks fall 16.7%.
USD/JPY capped near 160.30 into Jackson Hole: the carry-to-vol case
USD/JPY at 159.19 on August 19, 2026. The US-Japan two-year rate gap narrowed 19bp since August 3, yet the pair rose 1.93%. Base case 160.30 into Jackson Hole.
Tin to $62,000 by year-end 2026: the stock-drawdown case
Tin settled at $56,225/t on August 17, 2026 while LME stocks fell 41% in two months to 5,320 tonnes. Base case $62,000 by year-end 2026, bull $68,000, bear $48,000.
Zinc to $4,100 by Q4 2026: the West-versus-China split
LME zinc hit a four-year high as western warehouse stocks drained 21.2% in 30 days while China's export arbitrage stayed shut. Base case $4,100/t by Q4 2026.
Henry Hub to $2.40 by end-October 2026: the storage-record case
Henry Hub spot is $2.79/MMBtu with Lower 48 storage 198 Bcf above the five-year average. The base case is $2.40 by October 30, 2026 - the storage-record call.
MarketAxess to $167 by the ICE close: the merger-arb case
MKTX trades at $162.57 against ICE's contractual $167.00 cash offer - a 2.72% gross spread pricing a 10.7% deal-break risk. The antitrust case, both ways.
Capesize rates lead the Baltic Dry Index to 3,400 by October
The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2,844 on August 13, 2026, up 39.5% year on year. Capesize tonne-miles carry the case for 3,400 by October 31, 2026.
USD/JPY to 163.50 by September 30: intervention’s half-life
USD/JPY is 159.29 after the July 31 joint US-Japan intervention, retracing at 0.34 yen a session. Base case 163.50 by September 30, 2026; bear case 153.50.
Nickel to $15,000 by year-end 2026: the ore-versus-metal gap
LME nickel is $16,840/t despite Indonesia's one-third ore-quota cut. With 264,744 tonnes still in LME sheds, the base case is $15,000/t by year-end 2026.
Aluminium to $3,600 by Q4 2026: the warrant-scarcity case
LME aluminium settled at $3,327.50 on August 10 with exchange stocks at a 1998 low. Why the base case is $3,600 by Q4 2026 - and what breaks it.
USD/CNH to 6.65 by year-end: the fixing-gap case
USD/CNH reaches 6.6500 by December 31, 2026 in the base case, 6.5200 in the bull case and 6.9200 in the bear case.
US 2-year yield to 3.75% by year-end: the payrolls case
The US 2-year Treasury yield sits at 4.19%, pricing Fed hikes. July payrolls fell 23,000. Base case: 3.75% by December 31, 2026 as the hike premium unwinds.
Iron ore to $85 by Q4 2026: the Simandou guidance gap
Iron ore is at $94.45 and consensus already says $95 for the year. Simandou is shipping three times faster than Rio Tinto guided. Base case $85 by Q4.
EUR/GBP to 0.8450: the divergence trade that isn’t coming
EUR/GBP sits at 0.8570 with the BoE and ECB tightening into the same energy shock. Base case 0.8450 by year-end, and the September vote splits decide it.
Cocoa to $6,300 by year-end 2026: the shrinking-surplus case
StoneX cut its 2026/27 cocoa surplus forecast 94% to 25,000 tonnes while ICE stocks hit a two-year high. Base case $6,300, bull $7,400, bear $4,860.
AUD/NZD path to 1.16 runs through the RBNZ September hike
AUD/NZD sits on a 185bp RBA-RBNZ policy gap that has already peaked. Base case is 1.16 by December 31, 2026 as the RBNZ hikes toward its 3.00% neutral rate.
Arabica’s path to 250 cents runs through Brazil’s record crop
Arabica trades at 319.50 cents while Rabobank sees a 9.5m-bag surplus. Why Brazil's record crop points to 250 cents by December 2026 - and what breaks it.
Uranium to $100: term prices lead, spot and stocks lag
Uranium's term price hit an 18-year high of $94/lb while spot idles at $86 and miners fall. The convergence case for $100 by mid-2027 — and what would break it.
Palladium at $1,269: a deficit metal priced for surplus
Palladium is down 23% in 2026 while Nornickel projects a 100,000 oz deficit. The case for $1,450 by year-end: supply, substitution and the EU's ICE retreat.
