USD/KRW to 1,520 by Q4 2026: the memory terms-of-trade case
The won has strengthened to 1,447.80 while the KOSPI fell 34%. That divergence closes as Chinese DRAM supply erodes Korea's terms of trade. Base case 1,520 by Q4 2026.
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Market calls with a spot, a target and an invalidation level.
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July 2026
EUR/CHF to 0.9450 by Q4 2026: the franc-cap credibility test
EUR/CHF to 0.9450 by December 2026 from 0.9155. The mechanism is the SNB's stated willingness to intervene against franc strength — a soft floor, not a hard cap.
Japan’s 10-year JGB to 3.10% by Q4 2026: the faster-hike case
The 10-year JGB hit 2.77% as swaps price an 80% chance of an October BOJ hike to 1.25%. The path to 3.10% - and the CPI print that breaks it.
GBP/JPY to 205 by Q4 2026: the carry-cushion case
GBP/JPY at 218.15 sits above the entire forecast-house central tendency while the BOJ tightens faster than guided and Tokyo warns of decisive FX action. Base case 205.
USD/NOK to 9.20 by Q4 2026: the Nordic-divergence case
The krone has gained 7.72% on the euro in 2026 while the Swedish krona fell. USD/NOK reaches 9.20 by year-end on a Norges Bank hiking bias the G10 no longer shares.
USD/MXN to 17.90 by Q4 2026: the carry-compression case
USD/MXN to 17.90 by Q4 2026: Banxico is anchored at 6.50% while the Fed is priced to hike, compressing the carry from the US side. Levels and invalidation.
USD/CAD to 1.43 by Q3 2026: the oil-assumption case
USD/CAD to 1.4300 by September 30, 2026. The Bank of Canada's inflation forecast assumes oil falls - and elevated oil is what is holding the loonie up.
Gold to $3,800 by Q4 2026: the real-rate case
Goldman and JPMorgan both cut gold targets on lost Fed easing. If term premium lifts real yields without a hike, $4,050 spot has further to give.
EUR/USD to 1.13 by Q4 2026: the term-premium counter-case
Consensus has EUR/USD at 1.18-1.25 on Fed cuts. If US long yields rise on term premium instead, the euro bull case loses its engine.
DAX to 26,400 by year-end 2026: the fiscal-impulse case
The DAX sits flat in 2026 at 24,833. Base case 26,400 by year-end as German energy inflation decays and a record fiscal impulse reaches earnings.
USD/CHF to 0.7950 by Q3 2026: the SNB reaction-function case
USD/CHF sits at 0.8101 with the SNB at 0% and the Fed at 3.50%-3.75%. Why intervention, not the 362bp carry gap, sets the floor into Q3 2026.
Brent to $76 by year-end 2026: the half-premium case
Brent trades at $88.59/bbl after a 30% rally on the US-Iran ceasefire collapse, but the EIA still forecasts $70 for Q4. Base case: $76 by December 31, 2026.
US 10-year to 4.85% by Q3 2026: the term-premium case
The US 10-year closed at 4.55%, above the 4.0-4.5% consensus range forecasters still publish. The term-premium case for 4.85% by Q3 2026, with triggers.
AUD/USD to 0.7150 by Q3 2026: the energy-windfall case
AUD/USD targets 0.7150 by Q3 2026 as Australia's $42bn energy export upgrade inverts the Aussie's usual risk-off correlation. Levels, quotes, triggers.
Platinum to $1,750 by year-end 2026: the deficit-return case
Platinum to $1,750/oz by December 31, 2026. WPIC forecasts a fourth straight deficit — but Q1 delivered the first surplus in six quarters.
GBP/USD to 1.38 by Q3 2026: the BOE dissent case
GBP/USD to 1.3800 by September 30, 2026. Two MPC members back 4.00% and UK services CPI is re-accelerating — the market prices no BOE hike at all.
USD/JPY to 164 by year-end 2026: the hike-that-failed case
The BOJ hiked to 1.00% and the yen still weakened. Why 25bp against a 250bp gap left carry intact, and where USD/JPY lands by year-end 2026.
S&P 500 to 7,650 by year-end 2026: the 22.5x multiple case
Wall Street's S&P 500 targets span 7,100-8,250 on near-identical earnings. The gap is a multiple argument: base case 7,650 by year-end 2026 at 22.5x.
Copper to $11,100 by Q3 2026: the inventory-glut case
Copper inventories are up 540kt this year as Goldman and JPMorgan diverge by $2,000/mt on 2026 targets. Why $11,100 by Q3 - levels and disconfirmation.
Silver to $62 by Q3 2026: the ratio-compression case
Silver at $56 after a 52% crash: the gold-silver ratio at 69:1, a sixth deficit year and June's soft CPI point to $62 by Q3. Levels and disconfirmation.
