EUR/USD to 1.12 by Q3 2026: the widening-gap case
EUR/USD heads to 1.12 by end-Q3 2026 as rising US CPI and falling euro-area inflation keep the 125-150bp rate gap wide. Levels, mechanism, disconfirmation.
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Market calls with a spot, a target and an invalidation level.
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July 2026
Nikkei 225 to 71,500 by end-Q3 2026: the BOJ-flinch case
Nikkei 225 to 71,500 by end-Q3 2026: after July 16's 2.6% AI-led flush to 66,960, the case rests on a yield-constrained BOJ and a 165-yen path — with four kill switches.
JPMorgan to $365 by year-end 2026: the NII re-rating case
JPMorgan to $365 by year-end 2026: the raised $105.5bn NII guide and a record Q2 re-rate JPM from $344.59 — with four explicit signals that break the call.
WTI’s $80 Hormuz premium fades toward $72 into Q4 2026
WTI trades near $79.75 on a Strait of Hormuz risk premium, but OPEC+ supply and a persistent surplus point to a drift toward $72 by Q4 2026. Base, bull and bear cases.
Gold to $4,500 by year-end 2026: the central-bank-bid case
Gold trades near $4,340/oz in mid-2026. The base case sees $4,500 by year-end, floored by central-bank buying near 60 tonnes a month and capped by Fed-hike risk.
Henry Hub to $3.20 by Q3 2026: the associated-gas glut case
Henry Hub hit a two-month low at $2.90 while crude ran 19% on Hormuz. Why an oil shock is bearish for US natural gas - and what would break the call.
USD/CAD to 1.36 by Q3 2026: the petro-CAD reversal case
USD/CAD to 1.36 by Q3 2026. Bank forecasts for the loonie were built on cheap oil - and WTI just ran 19% to $80. The contrarian terms-of-trade case.
DXY to 105 by Q3 2026: the Warsh hawkish-repricing case
DXY to 105 by Q3 2026. July Fed hike odds jumped from 10% to 50% and the 2-year hit 4.29%. Why an oil shock is lifting the dollar, and what kills the call.
Gold to $4,200 by Q3 2026: downgrading the official-bid case
We cut gold to $4,200 from $4,400. Central banks bought a net 16 tonnes in Q1 2026 against a 1,000t/yr run-rate — the bid every bull forecast rests on has stalled.
GBP/USD to 1.3250 by Q3 2026: the two-hawk standoff case
GBP/USD ranges 1.3150-1.3550 into Q3 2026. With the BoE and a Warsh Fed both hawkish, the rate differential is frozen — and carry cannot trend the pair.
S&P 500 to 7,700 by end-Q3 2026: the multiple-compression case
S&P 500 to 7,700 by end-Q3. Wall Street agrees on $340 EPS and disagrees on the multiple - a 16% target spread that is pure valuation opinion.
WTI to $66 by end-Q3 2026: the cartel-fracture case
WTI near $71 falls to $66 by end-Q3. The UAE left OPEC, Iraq threatens to follow, and OPEC+ is adding barrels into a war. The EIA cut Brent by $27.
USD/JPY to 165 by end-Q3 2026: the carry-versus-intervention case
USD/JPY near 162.20 heads to 165 by end-Q3. The BOJ is at 1.00%, the Fed at 3.50-3.75%, and Japan already spent $74bn failing to close the gap.
Platinum to $1,900 by Q3 2026: the deficit-versus-rates case
Platinum trades near $1,630/oz, eight-month lows, even as WPIC forecasts a fourth straight 297koz deficit. Base $1,600-$1,900, bull $2,200, bear $1,450 into Q3 2026.
AUD/USD to 0.73 by Q3 2026: the RBA-carry standoff case
AUD/USD trades near 0.6940 below its rate differential. A twin-hawk RBA-Fed standoff keeps it range-bound; base 0.68-0.72, bull 0.73 (OCBC), bear 0.67 (JPMorgan).
EUR/USD to 1.18 by end-Q3 2026: the spread-compression case
EUR/USD at 1.1426 reaches 1.18 by end-Q3 2026 as the 1.38pp Fed-ECB spread compresses toward 0.88pp. Targets, the 2011 analogue risk, and what kills the call.
Copper to $6.60 by end-Q3 2026: the mine-supply crunch case
Copper to $6.60/lb by end-Q3 2026: Grasberg at 60%, Kamoa cut 22.5%, Chile down 9% — the mine-supply crunch case, targets and what would invalidate it.
Silver to $70 by end-Q3 2026: the deficit-plus-pivot case
Silver price forecast: $70/oz base case by September 30, 2026 on a sixth straight deficit and the Warsh repricing — levels, bank targets and what kills it.
Gold to $4,400 by end-Q3 2026: the Warsh-pivot upgrade
Gold price forecast upgraded: $4,400/oz base case by September 30, 2026 as Warsh turns dovish and June payrolls stall — levels, scenarios and what kills it.
WTI to $62 by end-Q3 2026: the supply-normalisation case
WTI price forecast: $62 by end-Q3 2026 as OPEC+ adds 188,000 bpd, Hormuz flows top 10M bpd and 67M Iranian barrels loom. Levels, data and triggers.
